Posted 2005-September-13, 06:11
***** club lead
Chance of 2 tricks in spades = 50%
Chance of 4 tricks in diamonds = 52%
So assuming I manage 4 heart tricks, it's more likely that diamonds play for 4 tricks than spades for two.
The best chance of 4 tricks in hearts is, I believe, AK and another. However that cuts me off from the clubs. So I have two ways to get four heart tricks
i) cash three clubs first & hope the winner of the third heart can't cash any clubs
ii) duck a heart (i.e., low to the 7).
The problem with ducking a heart is that LHO can insert an honour from Hx (or HHx) and then play a spade through, and I've given up my extra chance of Jx in diamonds.
Anyway, it can't hurt to cash a second club discarding a spade before I commit myself elsewhere, so I do that... and RHO discards. I have the choice of third club, King of hearts and a heart towards dummy, or two top diamonds and a heart towards hand.
Having seen all the hands, I'm going to make now. But at the table I would have a choice of diamonds 3-3 (with everyone having followed twice) or the spade finesse, if West found a spade return.