Posted 2006-July-12, 20:35
First, can declarer have less than Jxx in diamonds? It is unlikely. With Ax KJTx Txx AQ9x, conceding an unnecessary spade trick seems very risky, as it would likely lead to one more undertrick than the rest of the field. Then again, if opponents don't switch to diamonds, maybe following this train of thought, it can win a lot! How much of a gambler is East?
Now let's suppose declarer has something in diamonds. We are probably trying to prevent an overtrick then. Let's give declarer Ax KJTx KTxx Axx. He has 4 tricks in spades, 2 in hearts already, 2 top clubs, and at least one coming in diamonds. One sure way of preventing the overtrick is to setup our own heart suit, before the DA is knocked out.
What about Ax KJTx Jxx AQ9x? Declarer's play is risky, as he is likely down if spades are 4-2 - setting up the third heart trick seems better.
I'm plaing declarer for Ax KJTx KTxx Axx. HA and a heart.