[jdonn]

benlessard, on Aug 18 2008, 09:25 PM, said:

My average of overtricks when i XX a lightner 3Nt is something close to 2 overtricks. So with a 5-5 is strongly suggest you to run.

LOL sorry but what a load of bull. You AVERAGE a trick short of slam in 3NTXX? So you are often making slam on auctions like 1NT 3NT counting only the hands where your opponent has great defense! Well done.

[xcurt]

benlessard, on Aug 18 2008, 09:25 PM, said:

My average of overtricks when i XX a lightner 3Nt is something close to 2 overtricks. So with a 5-5 is strongly suggest you to run.

Then you're not redoubling frequently enough -- or you judge really really well.

Anyway say we pull and reach an 8-card fit, and (somewhat optimistically) partner has 1 trick and 1 tempo (ie can prevent 1 tap) in the pointed suits. In clubs the best we can do then is lose the top tricks and take our hearts, -500. On a bad day, we're going to find hearts where we are taking 6 tricks since we make no long clubs, -1100. Pulling looks very wrong.

[mikeh]

jdonn, on Aug 18 2008, 10:08 PM, said:

benlessard, on Aug 18 2008, 09:25 PM, said:

My average of overtricks when i XX a lightner 3Nt is something close to 2 overtricks. So with a 5-5 is strongly suggest you to run.

LOL sorry but what a load of bull. You AVERAGE a trick short of slam in 3NTXX? So you are often making slam on auctions like 1NT 3NT counting only the hands where your opponent has great defense! Well done.

My suspicion is that his sample size is pretty small

I've only played 3N xx'd twice at imps, and my average is 0.5 undertricks

[andy_h]

If X was agreed for partner to lead their shortest major, I would X.

[kfay]

Here's a funny hand from a match between the US and Canadian Women's Teams for Beijing that was played in a match on BBO yesterday:

Scoring: IMP

---

Canadian W doubled, American counterpart didn't.

Result 3NTX= and 3NT -1

[jdonn]

Jlall, on Aug 19 2008, 03:25 PM, said:

I doubled and they made 5 but did not redouble.

Did partner lead a heart? If he didn't, do you think he should have on his actual hand?

[OleBerg]

kfay, on Aug 19 2008, 06:05 PM, said:

Here's a funny hand from a match between the US and Canadian Women's Teams for Beijing that was played in a match on BBO yesterday:

<!-- FULLHAND begin --><table border=1> <tr> <td> <table> <tr> <td>Dealer:</td> <td> North </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vul:</td> <td> N/S </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scoring:</td> <td> IMP </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td> <table> <tr> <th> </th> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> A74 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> 93 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> K1095 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> AKJ3 </td> </tr> </table> </th> <th> </th> </tr> <tr> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> KQJ32 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> A76 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> 732 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> 76 </td> </tr> </table> </th> <th> </th> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> 985 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> KQJ42 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> 86 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> 985 </td> </tr> </table> </th> </tr> <tr> <th> </th> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> 106 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> 1085 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> AQJ4 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> Q1042 </td> </tr> </table> </th> <th> </th> </tr> </table> </td> <td>  </td> </tr> </table><!-- FULLHAND end -->

Canadian W doubled, American counterpart didn't.

Result 3NTX= and 3NT -1

Good for partneship confidence. God told East to lead a heart, partner told her to lead a spade.

Edit: It goes without saying that a heart lead is a standout on the East hand. (Still I said it.)

[benlessard]

Quote

My suspicion is that his sample size is pretty small

Agree, but it does come from time to time. The lightner that get punished the most is a positionnal holding over dummy. Lightner X that ask for dummy suit. You have AQT9x over dummy xxxx and declarer KJx.

Im pretty sure experts are quite on the safe side when it come to XX. In my experience most business XX tend to make overtricks and xx contracts rarely goes down.

On this hand youve made a speculative X, if they are expert players and XX , making +2 is a pretty normal result.

Between 1800 vs 660 & 1150 vs 660 its only 5 imps and if you make only 1 overtricks it still 5 Imps. The maths are saying that you should only XX whne you are sure.

Of course some players are probably pretty quick on the XX, against these players running might not be the best option.

[OleBerg]

benlessard, on Aug 21 2008, 03:46 AM, said:

On this hand youve made a speculative X, ...

No. A stand-out double.

Two redoubled overtricks?

Certainly the nt-opener cannot redouble, or convey any other information to partner.

Thus, it is responder who must redouble. There are only 4 (some might say 5) surplus points in the game, if they want 26 HCP for game to be safe.

For responder to redouble, he will need all suits stopped, and enough strength to ensure 8 tricks in the outside suits. Not easy, especially not if the nt range is 15-17.

Furthermore, I do not find ten tricks outside hearts and clubs that likely.