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Play 3NT The defense won't help, will they?

#1 User is offline   Hanoi5 

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Posted 2010-November-30, 03:12



You receive a small club lead. You play low from the table and East wins the Queen and promptly returns the ♣K. What would you play now?

Let's say you continued with a heart to the 9 and 10 and West returned a diamond. On the third diamond West discards a club, how would you plan to make at this point?

 wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:

Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the ♥3.


 rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:

Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win


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#2 User is offline   OleBerg 

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Posted 2010-November-30, 03:29

Assuming IMP's

After the ♣A, I take the ♠AK. If the ♠Q or ♠10 doesn't pop, I test diamonds. When they fail, I lead a spade towards the hand. Even with Q10xx behind me, I still have the chance that LHO holds ♥KQ(x..) or two hearts only with the king or queen.

As it came: I have to find two discards, which is annoying. Not going into the math, I discard two hearts, and play spades from the top, hoping for a 3-3 split, or the drop of the Q or 10.
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Do not underestimate the power of the dark side. Or the ninth trumph.

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We should always assume 2/1 unless otherwise stated, because:

- If the original poster didn't bother to state his system, that means that he thinks it's obvious what he's playing. The only people who think this are 2/1 players.

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#3 User is offline   matmat 

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Posted 2010-November-30, 03:36

I suspect i would play on spades at trick 3. I am not sure if it is better to cash two tops, then test diamonds, and if those don't break lead toward ♠jx in hand, or to take a first round finesse in the suit. The former wins against honor either honor doubleton, or the suit 33.
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#4 User is offline   OleBerg 

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Posted 2010-November-30, 04:18

View Postmatmat, on 2010-November-30, 03:36, said:

I am not sure if it is better to cash two tops, ... or to take a first round finesse in the suit.


But I am.

Assuming you are not worrying about overtricks, there are no distributions where the finesse gains over cashing the top two, but there are distributions where cashing the top two gains over the finesse.
_____________________________________

Do not underestimate the power of the dark side. Or the ninth trumph.

Best Regards Ole Berg

_____________________________________

We should always assume 2/1 unless otherwise stated, because:

- If the original poster didn't bother to state his system, that means that he thinks it's obvious what he's playing. The only people who think this are 2/1 players.

Gnasher
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#5 User is offline   Hanoi5 

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Posted 2010-November-30, 04:26

Yes, it was imp's. What's the percentage of getting two tricks in hearts by playing small to the 9?

 wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:

Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the ♥3.


 rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:

Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win


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#6 User is offline   OleBerg 

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Posted 2010-November-30, 04:47

View PostHanoi5, on 2010-November-30, 04:26, said:

Yes, it was imp's. What's the percentage of getting two tricks in hearts by playing small to the 9?


41,28% according to J.M. Rudinescos: The dictionary of suit-combinations.

Thats for the suit in isolation, assuming two entries to the other hand. (Which would seem rather close to the situation in the problem.) The % migth be alittle higher here, as East is known to have at least five clubs. (You dont know who is long in diamonds, when you choose your play at trick 2.)

Getting the book off the shelf, I also checked the percentage on cashing spades and leading towards the jack: 73,82%

The last number migth be a little higher too, again because East is known to hold at least five clubs.
_____________________________________

Do not underestimate the power of the dark side. Or the ninth trumph.

Best Regards Ole Berg

_____________________________________

We should always assume 2/1 unless otherwise stated, because:

- If the original poster didn't bother to state his system, that means that he thinks it's obvious what he's playing. The only people who think this are 2/1 players.

Gnasher
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#7 User is offline   Hanoi5 

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Posted 2010-November-30, 05:03

And what is the percentage of playing ♠AK and seeing the Queen or the Ten? Or both?

 wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:

Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the ♥3.


 rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:

Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win


My YouTube Channel
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#8 User is offline   OleBerg 

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Posted 2010-November-30, 05:12

View PostHanoi5, on 2010-November-30, 05:03, said:

And what is the percentage of playing ♠AK and seeing the Queen or the Ten? Or both?


Plz. It's not an on-line helpdesk.

Looking up such things yourself, you will learn things.
_____________________________________

Do not underestimate the power of the dark side. Or the ninth trumph.

Best Regards Ole Berg

_____________________________________

We should always assume 2/1 unless otherwise stated, because:

- If the original poster didn't bother to state his system, that means that he thinks it's obvious what he's playing. The only people who think this are 2/1 players.

Gnasher
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#9 User is offline   Hanoi5 

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Posted 2010-November-30, 05:25

It sort of is...

I don't know how to do the math...

Is it 29.1?

Then I'm still 3,55% away from the best line.

 wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:

Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the ♥3.


 rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:

Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win


My YouTube Channel
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