BBO Discussion Forums: another percentage question - BBO Discussion Forums

Jump to content

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

another percentage question

#1 User is offline   Fluffy 

  • World International Master without a clue
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 17,404
  • Joined: 2003-November-13
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:madrid

Posted 2010-November-30, 04:28


You don't bid the hand very straightforward, but you land in 6

5 is led and RHO will play 10 or 6 depending on your pick from dummy.

If it matters you can assume opponents are unable to duck K
0

#2 User is offline   Valardent 

  • PipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 91
  • Joined: 2008-July-11
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Belgium

Posted 2010-November-30, 06:59

Q, Q.

1) looses to K, 47.5% finding Q

2) it holds, 2 lines :

a) finesse Q through west(having played + if confident are 3-3 (additional chance of endplay with Qx in East

b ) AK then all black cards

3) it is covered, similar as 2)

So what is best, a) or b )?

a) would win over b ) about 14% if are 4-1 while b ) would win over a) about 13.5% (Qx)

Bcs b ) is safer for an endplay, I would choose b )
0

#3 User is offline   Fluffy 

  • World International Master without a clue
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 17,404
  • Joined: 2003-November-13
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:madrid

Posted 2010-November-30, 16:26

Q will hold
0

#4 User is offline   gnasher 

  • Andy Bowles
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 11,993
  • Joined: 2007-May-03
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:London, UK

Posted 2010-November-30, 16:37

Too hard.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
0

#5 User is offline   dake50 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 2,211
  • Joined: 2006-April-22

Posted 2010-November-30, 18:56

Why didn't y'all get to 6NT? Just to avoid this brainbuster.
There I can play some discovery that will tell me something.

Agree Valardent line b.
0

#6 User is offline   nige1 

  • 5-level belongs to me
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 9,128
  • Joined: 2004-August-30
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Glasgow Scotland
  • Interests:Poems Computers

Posted 2010-November-30, 21:15

View PostValardent, on 2010-November-30, 06:59, said:

Q, Q.
1) looses to K, 47.5% finding Q
2) it holds, 2 lines :
a) finesse Q through west(having played + if confident are 3-3 (additional chance of endplay with Qx in East
b ) AK then all black cards
3) it is covered, similar as 2)
So what is best, a) or b )?
a) would win over b ) about 14% if are 4-1 while b ) would win over a) about 13.5% (Qx)
Bcs b ) is safer for an endplay, I would choose b )
IMO Valardent and Dake50 are right. Q, Q.
If Q loses to lHO's K then you must guess which way to finesse hearts.
If Q is covered or wins, then the two main lines are
  • Finesse hearts. If you lose a trick then you will have to play off winners to guess whether LHO is more likely to hold Tx or RHO Kx
  • Cash AK winning against a singleton or doubleton Q. Assume Q doesn't drop but are 3-2. Cash plain suit winners and lead a . If RHO has Q and K, you are home. If LHO has Q and T, you succeed, too.
IMO, both lines are about 65% but the second line is slightly better and more fun.
0

#7 User is offline   Fluffy 

  • World International Master without a clue
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 17,404
  • Joined: 2003-November-13
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:madrid

Posted 2010-December-02, 03:07

RHO had Qxx K10x
0

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

2 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 2 guests, 0 anonymous users