[FrancesHinden]

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1NT 15-17. 2H Michaels. 3H a good raise (probably in spades) and shows short diamonds as no double.
West is a very good player who will try and play the contract as often as possible. Everyone knows he didn't intend 3D as a transfer break, but as showing diamonds.
East is noticeably weaker, but not absurd. East will usually signal count/attitude religiously, West may not bother

Ace of diamonds lead, on which East plays the 8 (reverse attitude/standard count)
West thinks for a while, and switches to the queen of cubs.

Plan the play.

[matmat]

Managed to misread something. Nevermind.

[JLOGIC]

West cannot be that good if he thinks hes going to PLAY 3D after his partner transfers to hearts

[nige1]

FrancesHinden, on 2011-January-08, 15:35, said:

1NT 15-17. 2H Michaels. 3H a good raise (probably in spades) and shows short diamonds as no double. West is a very good player who will try and play the contract as often as possible. Everyone knows he didn't intend 3D as a transfer break, but as showing diamonds. East is noticeably weaker, but not absurd. East will usually signal count/attitude religiously, West may not bother.
Ace of diamonds lead, on which East plays the 8 (reverse attitude/standard count) West thinks for a while, and switches to the queen of cubs. Plan the play.

Fascinating deal Frances
IMO you hope the full deal is something like this.
LHO probably has six good diamonds. Otherwise, his three-level foray would be foolhardy.
You want to ruff two diamonds in dummy without being over-ruffed, so you want LHO to have ♠KT.
You need RHO to hold at least one heart honour. It may not matter which, but on previous assumptions, he should have the ♥A.
There seem to be several successful lines on this layout. For example,
You can take ♣AK, ♥K, two ♦ ruffs with ♠J8, and five more trump tricks.

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[MrAce]

Never mind. I was playing 3♠ for some reason.

[rhm]

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Assume the layout is like the above.

To win 4♠ you need to discard 2 ♦s on the top ♣s. You intend to take the ♥ finesse and ruff 2 ♦s in dummy. You loose a trick in each suit except in ♣.

Now change West ♠ to ♠ KTx and give East a low ♠. Suddenly you can not ruff 2 ♦ without giving West 2 trump tricks. You now need to discard your 2 ♥s and play a cross ruff, which works because East can not over ruff the dummy. You loose 2 trumps and a ♦.

I do not see how to choose between these two lines.
It is true that a priori it is twice as likely that West has the ♠ ten. But this assumes that West, when holding the ♠ ten, has made a mistake after the opening lead. With the ♠ ten West could have beaten the contract by switching to ♥ at trick two to let East play a trump through declarer.

Rainer Herrmann

[pooltuna]

[quote name='JLOGIC' timestamp='1294534806' post='521045']
West cannot be that good if he thinks hes going to PLAY 3D after his partner transfers to hearts
[/quote


That may be true but what about his original 1NT call. Does a handhog open 1♦ or 1NT? [i.e. think 6 card suit]

[pooltuna]

rhm, on 2011-January-09, 05:32, said:

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Assume the layout is like the above.

To win 4♠ you need to discard 2 ♦s on the top ♣s. You intend to take the ♥ finesse and ruff 2 ♦s in dummy. You loose a trick in each suit except in ♣.

Now change West ♠ to ♠ KTx and give East a low ♠. Suddenly you can not ruff 2 ♦ without giving West 2 trump tricks. You now need to discard your 2 ♥s and play a cross ruff, which works because East can not over ruff the dummy. You loose 2 trumps and a ♦.

I do not see how to choose between these two lines.
It is true that a priori it is twice as likely that West has the ♠ ten. But this assumes that West, when holding the ♠ ten, has made a mistake after the opening lead. With the ♠ ten West could have beaten the contract by switching to ♥ at trick two to let East play a trump through declarer.

Rainer Herrmann

LHO is a handhog so the possibility he is 2263 is not remote

[rhm]

pooltuna, on 2011-January-09, 07:05, said:

LHO is a handhog so the possibility he is 2263 is not remote

I have not said so. Just because West could also be 2=2=6=3 does not mean he will be. Everybody opens 3=2=5=3 with 1NT. Non vulnerable I can see someone rebidding 3♦ with AKQTx, though it would be more indicated with 6 cards in ♦.
Anyway nige1 layout 2263 works only because West has precisely ♠KT and whether declarer discards ♦ or ♥ on the top ♣ does not matter in this layout. Both lines work here.

Rainer Herrmann

[nige1]

rhm, on 2011-January-09, 05:32, said:

It is true that a priori it is twice as likely that West has the ♠ ten. But this assumes that West, when holding the ♠ ten, has made a mistake after the opening lead. With the ♠ ten West could have beaten the contract by switching to ♥ at trick two to let East play a trump through declarer.

• If LHO has ♠KTx then a ♥ switch still works after cashing ♦A. Even after a ♣ continuation, if LHO has six diamonds, you are unlikely to make.
• IMO, LHO is likely to have six diamonds, so we should consider only ♠Kxx or ♠KT.
• If LHO has ♠Kxx, then an initial ♥ lead may defeat the contract (RHO can win and lead a ♠ through declarer) but Rainer is right (as usual) that declarer will normally succeed on that layout.
• After the ♦A lead, declarer can cash ♠A (key play) before ruffing a ♦, to cater for both eventualities (♠KT or ♠Kxx with LHO). In either case he should be able to contrive 1♥, 2♣ and seven trump tricks.
• If, at trick two, LHO continues diamonds, declarer can ruff with ♠J to cater for both these cases.