To finesse or not to finesse ?

#1 zeroNT

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Posted 2011-January-11, 08:46

north hand

S x
H T
D AKJxx
C A

your hand

S x
H QJxx
D Txx
C -

You have to win all the tricks, H is trump and oppons have no more trumps. Do you discard Sx on CA and finesse in D or discard a D on CA then ruff a D, enter dummy again with H T ? Does 2nd line has better than 50% chance ?

#2 BunnyGo

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Posted 2011-January-11, 09:17

zeroNT, on 2011-January-11, 08:46, said:

It depends on what count I have on the opponents hands. But with no other information 3-2 diamonds is greater than 50%.

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#3 pooltuna

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Posted 2011-January-11, 10:00

zeroNT, on 2011-January-11, 08:46, said:

Not having full information I will assume there are no indications that suggest 3-2♦ are very unlikely then clearly the superior line is to set up the 4&5♦ using the T♥ as an entry

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#4 TWO4BRIDGE

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Posted 2011-January-11, 11:19

Without any other factors involved, the 3-2 split is almost 68% whereas the finesse is only 50% .

Don Stenmark
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#5 matmat

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Posted 2011-January-11, 12:16

Since RHO has a singleton diamond, I cross to a top diamond. If the queen does not drop, I discard a spade on the club ace, ruff a spade back to hand and take the diamond finesse that is certain to win.

#6 dake50

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Posted 2011-January-11, 12:21

D:AK to see D:Q fall. Now C:A discard D:x shows,
D-ruff if that might work. Or H:10 C:A if S-D squeeze.

#7 BobElliott

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Posted 2011-January-11, 12:23

zeroNT, on 2011-January-11, 08:46, said:

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