[whereagles]

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Lead problem. Ace and take a peek or an aggressive king underlead?

[han]

I remember leading a club. I had to see what lead agreements we use and I couldn't find them. I decided not to specify whether I led the 7 or the 2.

Clubs seems better than hearts as our club tricks are more likely to go away than hearts and my clubs are stronger. Diamonds is not an option. The spade ace is possible but could give away a trick easily (for example when partner has Jxx).

[manudude03]

The BBO Advanced topic said 3/5 vs suits, so I led the ♣7. Pretty much the same reasons as han, except the ♠A will often give up a valuable tempo.

[Phil]

I think I led a club LOL, but I remember hopping back and forth between this and a trump. I also considered the ♣K but scratched it out.

[Fluffy]

I don't remember, a club or a diamond both are fine for me, I think I led a club

[kayin801]

Systemic club, preparing to explain to partner that it's a blind guess when AQx is on my left and Jxx on my right.

[Echognome]

I lead a low heart. I don't think it's that obvious to lead a club. I am curious why Han says "our club tricks are more likely to go away than our hearts." I am willing to be enlightened with a layout where this both happens and is more likely.

Edit: By "more likely", I mean that a simple permutation of the hands (which makes a heart lead more attractive) is less likely due to shape considerations. I'm not expecting a full simulation or proof or anything like that.

[mtvesuvius]

I led a club here, seems more likely our club tricks could go away, and trump seemed wrong.

[han]

Our club tricks could easily go away on the hearts, for example if dummy has AQJ10x of hearts and declarer a doubleton. This is less likely to happen the other way around, since our clubs are stronger and longer.

By more likely I meant that the chance of it happening is larger.

[Free]

Low ♥. Chances are smaller that declarer gets a free finesse (being void with AQ in dummy).

[nige1]

whereagles, on 2011-February-01, 04:54, said:

Lead problem. Ace and take a peek or an aggressive king underlead?

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♥K = 10, ♣K = 8. ♠A = 7, ♣7 = 6, ♦9 = 5.

[Free]

nige1, on 2011-February-02, 09:04, said:

♥K = 10, ♣K = 8. ♠A = 7, ♣7 = 6, ♦9 = 5.

Care to explain your scores?

[nige1]

nige1, on 2011-February-02, 09:04, said:

♥K = 10, ♣K = 8. ♠A = 7, ♣7 = 6, ♦9 = 5.

Free, on 2011-February-02, 09:42, said:

Care to explain your scores?

Just guesses at what might work
Obviously not guesses at what will score highly in this poll
Rixi Marcus suggests you lead a plain-suit ace against a pre-empt (declarer is less likely to hold honours in the suit). Lacking a plain-suit ace, a king may be the next best thing. Of course, it may be a disaster. On a good day, however, It may pin something useful in declarer's hand. For example ♣K could prove a good choice when dummy has ♣AJx and declarer ♣ 98. ♣K may be a better shot than ♥K.

[han]

I think that leading an unsupported king is fine against a preempt. It has dangers too though. For example, it frequently happens that declarer can finesse for an overtrick at trick 1, but has a singleton. Leading the king would make it an easy decision.

[mike777]

7c

low heart close second choice.

[whereagles]

*Drums roll* and...

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You might not agree with East's opener, but that's what he opened at table.

On isolation, the spade ace might blow a trick if pard has like Qx or Jxx and can lose a tempo as well. However, it might help preventing a bad switch. The diamond lead might work, but will put pard under quite a lot of stress when declarer ducks.

The king underlead seems the most normal lead, especially since any existing aces of opps rate to be on our left (LOL). The question is which king to underlead. The heart king is in a short suit, so there are less chances to blow a trick there, in theory. The club king is from a slightly stronger holding, which might help if the suit breaks like Axx/J9x. It's a toss-up and clubs wins this one, if not by sheer luck.

In practice the spade ace or a club get the top score. Ok, a low/mid diamond will also do, but pard will have to be very inspired to duck that.

All right, so we're coming to the end of this BPO poll 9. As soon as Mark puts up the scores, I'll link you up with the live tournament data sheets.

I hope you all enjoyed joining the poll and I welcome feedback in any respect. The scoring method I adopted works better in hands that are of the "x or y" type, with clear-cut consequences, so it requires some care in selecting the hands. Not all hands were easy to score or adequate, but hey that's life. I did the best I could do, given the circumstances (way too busy to even think of bridge lol )

[han]

edited

[cherdano]

han, on 2011-February-10, 10:49, said:

edited

I agree.