hrothgar, on 2011-April-04, 09:00, said:
<snip>I then check and see whether there is a statistically significant difference between the two sets of responses:
1. If there is no difference between the set of responses, no harm / no foul (nothing is demonstrably suggested by the bid)
2. If there is a statistically significant difference, we now have precise information about what is/is not suggested
Would folks consider this type of information at all helpful?
Yes and No. Let us say that 20 people of the second set bid 7, and only 5 people of the first set did so; this could be caused by a number of factors.
a) Perhaps only 5 of the first set knew how to play bridge
b) Perhaps only 5 of the fist set realised they had miscounted their key cards or knew what a key card was.
c) Most importantly, perhaps 20 of the second set were triggered by the question you ask to look for some hidden point.
So there are quite a few pitfalls in this approach. The other issue is that the hesitation did not convey to the advancer (assuming he did advance) that he had miscounted his keycards. It is what the hesitation conveys, not what the extra time that he had to think conveyed, that is relevant. Unless we believe that the hesitator did so for the purpose of getting his partner to recount - and this does seem a bit far-fetched.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar