[FrancesHinden]

We had a rash of 3NT contracts at the weekend. Here's the first.
You may need more information later, but to start with:

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Vulnerable at imps you force to game as South opposite a 1S opening. You play an artificial system where the auction goes
1S - 2H - 2S* - 2NT* - 3S* - 3NT.

North has shown a 5=2=3=3 12-14 balanced. South has shown nothing other than 5 hearts and a game force.
EW are a solid expert pair who mainly play high stake rubber bridge.

West leads the 6 of diamonds, 4th highest.
You play the 10 from dummy. East thinks a bit, then plays the 9.
You play a heart to the king (agree?) which holds. That doesn't automatically tell you where the ace is.

(You might have preferred to win the diamond in hand if you were certain the king was on your left, but I don't think you are)

What's your plan for 9 tricks?

[mikeh]

This one isn't anywhere near as much fun as the second 3N problem you posed, and I don't see a clear line, unlike the other hand.

I think I'd close my eyes and lead a low spade to the 9. If it holds, I lead the club Q (so as to preserve a hook against the J should spades be surprisingly 5-1 onside...I'm not yet committing to that play but I want to preserve my options).

If it loses, well, let me know what they return, but I doubt that I'll be happy.

Yes, I know that playing spades this way isn't the percentage line for 5 winners, but if I play them from the top, I have to make some premature discards, and I have serious entry problems if the J doesn't drop.

[Free]

I'd also start with a ♠ finesse.

[whereagles]

split-second thought: run spade T and see what happens.

By the way, RHO has K9 of diamonds; otherwise he has no reason to hesitate. Might eventually have KJ9 and is hoping to keep communications open. Rather deep, though.

[mikeh]

 whereagles, on 2011-August-23, 13:27, said:

split-second thought: run spade T and see what happens.

By the way, RHO has K9 of diamonds; otherwise he has no reason to hesitate. Might eventually have KJ9 and is hoping to keep communications open. Rather deep, though.

when is the 10 the right card compared to the 9? I can think of a (rare) case when low to the 9 is best but none where the 10 is. Play enough bridge and these plays start to matter.

[whereagles]

Guess what? I don't care!

[wyman]

 mikeh, on 2011-August-23, 14:18, said:

when is the 10 the right card compared to the 9? I can think of a (rare) case when low to the 9 is best but none where the 10 is. Play enough bridge and these plays start to matter.

I would have led the ♠10 too and not thought about it.

Holy crap, this post made me realize I'm giving up a nontrivial amount of EV here. Thanks. I just got \epsilon better at bridge.

[whereagles]

And stuff only works when \epsilon goes to zero

[han]

I am thinking about playing a spade to the ace and then another heart towards my queen. Yes, I know that RHO doesn't need to hold the heart ace or LHO to hold the diamond king, but either must be more than 50% likely (as they wouldn't always duck, and they are more likely to lead the 6 of diamonds holding the king). If the heart ace is wrong, LHO probably cannot continue the attack on the diamonds, which gives me another chance to set up club or heart tricks.

As I want to keep my options open to take the spade finesse later (for example, if LHO shows out on the second round of hearts), I will play the 10 of spades to the ace. There are marginal ways in which this can cost (singleton jack, telling them the layout of the spade suit), but I think that the flexibility in spades is slightly more important.

Of course a spade to the 9 is not so bad for the suit in isolation, but it is often very wrong when it is wrong, for example when LHO has 4-5 diamonds to the king and a side ace. This is why I am tempted to reject it.

[JLOGIC]

Surely LHO is wayyyyyy more likely to have the ace of hearts than RHO. It would be almost impossible for RHO to duck the heart ace, RHO would need the spade stopper and the club ace, or something like 5 hearts.

Given that, running the heart ten to begin with seems like a really strong line.

edit: I am assuming they play standard carding and diamonds are 5-2.

[JLOGIC]

Also the tempo matters a lot to me. How long did you/RHO think at trick 1 (I know you said a bit...but that is kinda vague) ? The longer it was the more likely RHO has found a duck from Axx of hearts because he can count our points/tricks. But if he ducked with Axx of hearts we are still in good shape with a non spade to the 9 line (which is why his play would be money but would take some time to figure all that out).

[phil_20686]

are we meant to take an inference about rho's hesitation, or does he always think at trick one?

If its a real hesitation, it must mean that he has the K but wants to kill of dummies diamond entry - a sure sign that the spades are not coming in imo.

In that case it looks quite like we should run the ten of spades.

I dont think crossing in spades and playing a heart up is right, as when LHO has AJ9x hearts you are going to have to find two pitches from dummy, which will mean giving up the diamond guard when lho has Kxxx(x) diamodns anyway.

The alternative line is to play a club to the Q. If this holds you are in absolutely great shape. You just play a heart.

In fact this line seems better and better. Suppose I play a club up and it holds, I now have 2d 1h 1c, so I can play a heart now, and if RHO wins I need only hearts or spades 3-3 or Jx spades. If LHO wins they can cash their heart tricks (but he cannot really exit safely if he has the Kd.

If the Q of Clubs loses I am not in great shape, but I will still make any time I can bring the spades in for 5 winners, or in a variety of other cases, like RHO having xxx diamonds and Jxxx spades and Ax(xx) hearts.

[JLOGIC]

Ducking with K9x seems quite dangerous if RHO has the long spade, he might not know what to do when he's in and he might have just blocked the diamonds if his partner has jack fifth. Especially if he has the HA, he will be giving us an entry to dummy to go after hearts. The gain just doesn't seem to be there, even if we have a stiff spade and the DA, he will prevent us from ducking a spade and getting there but if that was going to be our line they could just drive diamonds upon winning a spade without the round suits touched. This way their diamonds will be frozen/blocked and we will have an entry to dummy to play hearts...and we have to have something. And if we have a doubleton spade not much has been gained at all.

Also, I still think it should be a count situation, so the 9 is the wrong card (again assuming standard carding).

But it's a good point, it might be happening, I hadn't thought of it. Again reading the table action at trick 1 will be helpful.

I feel like usually if someone does something like duck a king/ace at trick 1 they do so in a way so that their partner will know so usually you can also know. If we are sure LHO has the DK and RHO has given count then I still like running the HT at trick 2.

[FrancesHinden]

I think Han's RHO and LHO are the wrong way round.

To fail to answer JLOGIC, declarer thought RHO's slow 9 might have been meant as encouraging with the king (trying to keep an entry off dummy); dummy thought he was just deciding whether to give count from 9x or not. Clearly at least one of us needs to improve our table presence.

[FrancesHinden]

To anyone who is still paying attention, if you take a spade finesse at trick 3 RHO wins the jack and plays a second diamond.

Now what?

Han - I'll come back to your line later.
Justin - if RHO doesn't cover the 10 are you running it? I hadn't thought of this line, it's interesting.

[JLOGIC]

Quote

Justin - if RHO doesn't cover the 10 are you running it? I hadn't thought of this line, it's interesting.

Yes, I don't expect them to cover with the jack.

[whereagles]

Once in a similar situation, my handsome female pard made such a play of an unsupported ten. It drove out the ace and it was the only way to make 3NT. Opponents were left arguing in the end. They were by far the best pair in the country those days...