gnasher, on 2011-October-10, 03:51, said:
The argument for ruling this as "red" is that:
- We have a defensive 11-count opposite an opening bid, with no great fit, and the opponents are currently in something that we expect will go about three down.
- They may sit 3NTx. If they do, we will get a large penalty.
- They may end up in 4♦ or 4♥. If they do, we will get a large penalty.
- If they end up in 4♣, we expect it to go down, so at worst we have converted +150 into +50 by doubling.
- It may not be that likely, but it's possible that we have a game bonus to protect. KQ10xxx xx AJxx x is a minimum opening.
I don't agree that NS appear to have had a misunderstanding. 3NT may not be discussed, but it's obviously a suggestion to play there. If LHO wanted to play in the overcaller's minor, he could bid 4♣: having bid 2NT to ask for the minor, he can't now want to introduce his own suit.
The argument for ruling this as "green" is that:
- We have a defensive 11-count opposite an opening bid, with no great fit, which is pretty much what we showed with our first-round double. Partner's 3
♠ warned us against doubling, and we assume he was wearing his varifocals at the time. Frivolous question: presumably to notice this during the auction is UI, but to notice it prior to taking one's cards from the wallet is AI?
- They may make 3NTx. If they do, "I" will get a good kicking, and they will get a large bonus. N:
♠Kxx
♥Jxx
♦10xxx
♣Axx opposite S:
♠x
♥Axxxx
♦A
♣K108xxx is sub-minimum for their actions but 3NT is cold.
- They may end up in 4
♦ or 4
♥. Despite the fact that North did not support hearts, nor did South bid diamonds. Pigs might fly.
- If they end up in 4
♣, and we double that, we expect it to make, so at best we might convert -550 into -510, possibly nicking an IMP. Our clubs are quite likely to be 2-2 after all.
- It may not be that likely, but if partner has KQ10xxx xx AJxx x, North will realised that his
♠Jxxx opposite a void is no longer a stop, and he may bid their cold 5
♣.
Now, I have already said that I think it is amber. Your arguments for red do not provide the evidence from a single hand required to rule it as red, and the purpose, as I see it, of amber is to record possible fielding where the evidence points both ways. The unbalanced view of aquahombre is not correct. Maybe that should be changed again to "nonsense deleted out".
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar