Posted 2012-February-03, 19:53
There is one very tiny risk of going down --> if RHO was dealt a singleton 8♦ or smaller. Otherwise you are safe.
If LHO holds a doubleton honor ♦ and you misguess, or if RHO holds a doubleton that does include the 10♦, you could cough up 5♦ and a ♣ but then you claim the rest. 4♣ + 2♠ + 1♥=7. Discard carefully, yo!!!
If RHO shows out on 1st or 2nd club be sure to discard ♥ from hand as you run the clubs. You need all 4 ♦ to guard against some layouts.
If you have 5 club tricks, the big question is whether to shoot for the ♥ finesse. Taking it risks losing too many ♦ and ♠. I would scrap it. 8 tricks in NT ought to be a pretty good score, especially since 2/1 makes it so hard to stop in 1NT!
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!
jmcw asks "Matchpoints, lefty lead a low ♠, small, King go from there".
Agree with Jillybean that ducking is greedy. so:: ♠A. Run ♣9. If that wins then finesse ♣T.