[kgr]

MP's

MP's

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West did lead a small ♦ (You can assume he has 4 or 5 ♦).
The ♦J holds. How do you continue?
I'm especially interested in the best play for ♥-suit.
I took a double finesse in ♥ starting with a small one to the 9, but it seems (suitplay) better to start with ♥J (for 3 tricks) or with small to the ♥Q (for 4 tricks).

[phil_20686]

Small to the Q only picks up stiff K compared to running the J, as you can run the 9 on the way back. It seems implausible to me that you would ever do that so I think running the J is practically the same as small to the queen.

I mean this is one of those situations where is is probably right to fly K from KT or KTx when defending.

[FrancesHinden]

If you are trying to make 4 heart tricks, you are definitely better starting with the jack than with small to the 9. Comparing the two lines, starting with the jack picks up singleton 10 offside while starting with low to the 9 in theory picks up singleton king onside (equally likely) but on this hand the red suits are blocked and anyway RHO might put in the king from K10 doubleton.

[kgr]

Thanks for the answers

FrancesHinden, on 2012-March-31, 05:49, said:

If you are trying to make 4 heart tricks,

not sure that 3 tricks are needed?

FrancesHinden, on 2012-March-31, 05:49, said:

you are definitely better starting with the jack than with small to the 9. Comparing the two lines, starting with the jack picks up singleton 10 offside while starting with low to the 9 in theory picks up singleton king onside (equally likely) but on this hand the red suits are blocked

I don't understand how this impacts the play. For both plays you can go back to ♦K and repeat the finesse? Could you explain how the blockage makes running the J better.

FrancesHinden, on 2012-March-31, 05:49, said:

and anyway RHO might put in the king from K10 doubleton.

Where I play they would never intentionally play the K from KT to make me believe they had the K singleton. They could play the K for another stupid reason however.

[phil_20686]

kgr, on 2012-March-31, 06:33, said:

For both plays you can go back to ♦K and repeat the finesse? Could you explain how the blockage makes running the J better.Where I play they would never intentionally play the K from KT to make me believe they had the K singleton. They could play the K for another stupid reason however.

The point is, if you play low towards hand and the K appears, you fly ace, run the nine play low to the J, cash teh diamond K, and have both red suit aces stuck in the south hand with no red suit cards in dummy.

[kgr]

phil_20686, on 2012-March-31, 13:26, said:

The point is, if you play low towards hand and the K appears, you fly ace, run the nine play low to the J, cash teh diamond K, and have both red suit aces stuck in the south hand with no red suit cards in dummy.

Thanks!! Then running the Jack is clearly better than small to the 9.
But is it clear to play for 4 tricks in ♥?
BTW: do you agree with the bidding; Are the 2 Tens of North enough to raise to 3NT at MP's (...enough against weaker opps that give you a trick sometimes)?

[phil_20686]

kgr, on 2012-April-01, 01:42, said:

Thanks!! Then running the Jack is clearly better than small to the 9.
But is it clear to play for 4 tricks in ♥?
BTW: do you agree with the bidding; Are the 2 Tens of North enough to raise to 3NT at MP's (...enough against weaker opps that give you a trick sometimes)?

I think the play for 3 and 4 tricks is the same now that we are not picking up stiff K onside anyway? In both cases run the J.

I dont know how suit play calculates the lines, does it assume that defenders play low cards when it doesnt matter, or that they play randomly when it doesnt matter? I mean does the line of low to the Q assume that you pick up KTx onside and K-Txxxx?

Anyway, I think the bidding looks totally fine. I have no idea what the best line is. Psychologically against poor players it may well be to play a spade off the dummy ducked all round. If they play back a diamond I will win in dummy and run the J. I dont think I need to play a heart immediately after the J d wins. They might do something really kind like switch to a club to an honour and another club. Even a club to an honour followed by a heart to the J K A would give me awesome play. Can now play the club J from hand.

Chalk me up for a spade off dummy at trick two.

[kgr]

phil_20686, on 2012-April-01, 09:06, said:

I dont know how suit play calculates the lines, does it assume that defenders play low cards when it doesnt matter, or that they play randomly when it doesnt matter? I mean does the line of low to the Q assume that you pick up KTx onside and K-Txxxx?

Small to the Q (B) is only best if you need exactly 3 tricks (Running the J (A) is best mp-play).
The only difference comparing when you get 3 tricks with A or B:
Txxx - Kx (6.46) 3 2
xxx - KTx (7.11) 2 3
- KTxxxx (0.75) 2 3
Small difference and when you want more tricks then running the J is better.
I think that suitplay assumes optimal defense and random as far as it is important.