[bluecalm]

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IMPs, good opps.
Your lead !

[JLOGIC]

Can't imagine not leading the HQ tbh

[Siegmund]

This is going to be very sensitive to the conditions you place on your sim. Will declarer ever have 5 hearts? How good do his pointed suits have to be before he'll consider 2D or 2S? How secure of a club stopper is declarer going to have?

I would expect the heart to be best against most styles, but might be persuaded otherwise for a FSF-game pair who will completely routinely bid this way with 5 hearts and 11 HCP.

[aguahombre]

Siegmund, on 2012-October-09, 22:00, said:

I would expect the heart to be best against most styles, but might be persuaded otherwise for a FSF-game pair who will completely routinely bid this way with 5 hearts and 11 HCP.

This is my concern. But I was under the naive impression that "most" styles would include that 5cM possibility. The "book" is to lead safely against 2NT, but I wonder if the HQ is really safer in this case than (say) a diamond.

[Free]

Small ♥ might be interesting. It's ok whenever partner has the Ace, King or 9, and we might even succeed if he has the 8 with the 9 in dummy. My quick & dirty calculations suggest somewhere between 70% and 75% chance of success.

[Fluffy]

Free, on 2012-October-10, 01:08, said:

Small ♥ might be interesting. It's ok whenever partner has the Ace, King or 9, and we might even succeed if he has the 8 with the 9 in dummy. My quick & dirty calculations suggest somewhere between 70% and 75% chance of success.

singleton honnor in dummy also, but it still scares me, a lot to lose, little to gain.

[gnasher]

Free, on 2012-October-10, 01:08, said:

Small ♥ might be interesting. It's ok whenever partner has the Ace, King or 9, and we might even succeed if he has the 8 with the 9 in dummy. My quick & dirty calculations suggest somewhere between 70% and 75% chance of success.

Don't you mean a 70-75% chance that it won't cost? Or, putting it another way, 25-30% of the time it will cost a trick.

When the opponents stop in 2NT at IMPs, it usually means that they're already too high. On this hand the defences's cards seem to be lying badly for declarer, so there's no reason at all to get active. Our first objective should be to avoid giving anything away.

[gszes]

Small spade

I am concerned that lho may have long dia to set up and the rho may have
long hearts to set up. I do not want to lead a red suit due to those concerns
and a club might too easily give up a trick. A small spade will almost never
give anything away and it might start to help cut communication btn the two
hands. If you are looking for a safe (book) lead this is probably the best
becasue it has upside potential with little downside.

[Codo]

I would never lead a red suit and I doubt that a spade can defeat 2 NT, so I need to lead a club, despite the obvious downsides...

[bluecalm]

Quote

Small ♥ might be interesting.

That's the reason I posted it.
I've led a small ♥ and it was successful (Ax in patner's hand, 9xx - K87x in declarer's). I tried simulating it and w/e constraints I chose Q was always better. I tried removing K♣ but still Q♥ is better. It seemed like I am running into AK9x too often.
Only when I made hearts QJ9xx then small got a small edge. In all cases every heart card is much better than other leads which I think is expected.

I remember this play from some old Lawrence book. I wonder if it's just bad or there exist some cases when it's worthwhile. I think maybe from weakish hand against 3NT it has more appeal than against a partscore which often goes down anyway and small ♥ can give away vital trick.

Quote

. Will declarer ever have 5 hearts?

Admittedly I assumed opener never has 5 hearts as this is a style I am familiar with (with 5 hearts you bid checkback).

[Phil]

I remember the hand but do not remember the book.

Kantar led low from QJTxx with the suit bid on his right. This paid off when partner produced 9x.

[gwnn]

bluecalm, on 2012-October-10, 09:06, said:

Only when I made hearts QJ9xx then small got a small edge.

Common wisdom 1
Rest of the world 0

woo hoo!

[PhilKing]

bluecalm, on 2012-October-10, 09:06, said:

That's the reason I posted it.
I've led a small ♥ and it was successful (Ax in patner's hand, 9xx - K87x in declarer's). I tried simulating it and w/e constraints I chose Q was always better. I tried removing K♣ but still Q♥ is better. It seemed like I am running into AK9x too often.
Only when I made hearts QJ9xx then small got a small edge. In all cases every heart card is much better than other leads which I think is expected.

I assume the simulation rates a small club as terrible?

[bluecalm]

I don't remember exactly now but low heart was about 100-120 cases worse (in 1000 hands) than Q♥ and other leads were significantly worse yet.
I am now trying this sequence:

1NT - 2C
2H - 3NT

and hands like:
A75 QJT4 862 T74

Q♥ wins significantly again but if we move 2♦ to hearts now small one is better (although only very slightly, might be random).
With:
A75 QJ93 863 T74

Q is again better than a 3 and even ♦/♣ is better than low heart.
My hypothesis for now is that this play is never good with 4 card suit and worth considering with 5 card suits.

Quote

Common wisdom 1
Rest of the world 0

woo hoo!

Can you point me to your source of this common wisdom thing ? I think I may benefit from refreshing mine...

[MickyB]

Any change for when you are leading lefty's suit instead of righty's?

[bluecalm]

Quote

Any change for when you are leading lefty's suit instead of righty's?

I can't run all of those because dmpro is too slow. Can you give me one which you think is interesting ?

[gwnn]

bluecalm, on 2012-October-10, 09:55, said:

Can you point me to your source of this common wisdom thing ? I think I may benefit from refreshing mine...

Not sure. I learned/read somewhere that you should lead QJT and QJ98 but QJ9xx and for some reason thought this was standard (I do the same for KJT/KJ98/KJ9x but I have no idea whether this is good). I do tend to generalise too quickly though.

[MickyB]

The 3433 with QJTx heart, except on 1N:2C, 2S:3N.

[bluecalm]

Quote

The 3433 with QJTx heart, except on 1N:2C, 2S:3N.

A74 QJT4 862 T74:

7♠ - 92
Q♥ - 124
4♥ - 114
6♦ - 169
7♣ - 159

Which again seems expected to me as leading lefty's suit is usually very bad idea.

Quote

you should lead QJT and QJ98 but QJ9xx

I was thought that in vacuum it's Q from QJ9x+ and close choice between Q and a small one from QJ8x+.
The situation here change though as we expect long fragment on the right.

[gnasher]

With QJ9xx and an opponent known or likely to have four, you lead a low one because you need partner to have A, K or 10, and this avoids crashing any honours or blocking the suit.

With QJ98, you lead the queen because it allows you pin a short 10 in the opponents' hands, it doesn't matter if you crash partner's 10, and if partner has the ace or king he will often have enough length to avoid a blockage.