[CSGibson]

---

Grand national teams, against one of the better teams, they put it to you with this preempt. X with this partner will be rarely removed at this level.

[the hog]

X, whether she removes it or not.

[gwnn]

This hand reminds me of a thread (hopefully not too soon to link it). Anyway I would X here, we're far from sure of 5-level safety.
http://www.bridgebas...prove-me-wrong/

[rhm]

gwnn, on 2013-April-29, 03:33, said:

This hand reminds me of a thread (hopefully not too soon to link it). Anyway I would X here, we're far from sure of 5-level safety.
http://www.bridgebas...prove-me-wrong/

I think this argument is wrong.
If there were 5-level safety nobody would double.
Again if you double chances are you will be defending and you are unlikely to get rich.

I bid my longest suit, hardly perfect, but nothing else is.

Rainer Herrmann

[gwnn]

The further from 5-level safety we are, the worse 5♠ as a bid becomes (assuming we've ruled out 6♠ already). In this case I judge it to be too far to make 5♠ a good bid. What is wrong about this?

[the hog]

I agree gwnn, 5S is really poor and a total gamble. Sometimes you have to pay off to the opposition.

[rhm]

gwnn, on 2013-April-29, 03:48, said:

The further from 5-level safety we are, the worse 5♠ as a bid becomes (assuming we've ruled out 6♠ already). In this case I judge it to be too far to make 5♠ a good bid. What is wrong about this?

Of course I am not claiming that 5♠ could not turn out poorly, but that the five level is not safe is in itself not a good argument.
The argument of course is how often will 5♠ turn out poorly and how often will it turn out better than DBL.
I frankly admit I use my judgment but do not know for sure, but partner is even less likely to know what to do when I double.
No matter how you define this DBL (transferable values probably), when you double with a void at this level my guess is partner will leave it in about 80% of the time.
After all you do not guarantee a void when you double, do you?
The flexibility of the DBL is a myth. It only transfers the final responsibility to the much weaker hand, which has even less clues what our offensive potential is.

I am in favor of bidding, because if opponents have a huge fit in clubs I am pretty sure we have one too, admittedly not necessarily (though likely) in spades.
I doubt RHO believes they can make 5♣. He seems to believe we can make at least game. I have no reason to doubt him.
With first round controls in all suits and and only 2.5 losers I see no good reason why 6♠ should be ruled out or even a grand for that matter.
If a finesse is needed the bidding indicates it is more likely to work.
Slam possibilities, even though I may have trouble finding the right strain, are a major reason to avoid the DBL.

Rainer Herrmann

[mcphee]

While it may find partner passing dble would be my pick. I am not so sure partner will pass either. While I do have 6S I would be most unhappy to find partner had 5/5 reds with 1S and 2C.

[PhilKing]

I don't see how overcalling 5♠ can possibly get us to slam.

[Phil]

gwnn, on 2013-April-29, 03:33, said:

This hand reminds me of a thread (hopefully not too soon to link it). Anyway I would X here, we're far from sure of 5-level safety.
http://www.bridgebas...prove-me-wrong/

Gwnn, I hate you.

[mikeh]

I would double, even tho I expect to be on defence.

It seems to me that our choices are: double, 5♠, 6♠ (!) or 6♣, intending to pass 6♥ and correct (!) 6♦ to 6♠.

I think all calls other than double are too unilateral: they aim at specific and narrow targets, each associated with very poor outcomes if wrong.

Bidding 5♠ lacks a meaningful upside. I expect 500 most of the time for defending and the best 5♠ rates to do is +680.

Forcing to slam, in any approach, obviously brings a big upside into play but at the risk of a horrendous downside. Even going off 1 undoubled is probably booting 11 imps, and surely the odds are against buying a suitable dummy.

Meanwhile, double has a slight upside: if partner pulls, I think we raise whatever he bids. I'd go so far as to bid 6♣ over either major, but would content myself with 6♦ should he choose that (maybe that is too chicken).

[trevahound]

Chris, you can't bully me into a plus score. I refuse to be pushed around like that. I'll take my minus like a piker. Unlike everyone wiser than I above (no small subset), I expect to get a shot at 6c as often as not at these colors.

[dake50]

I'll try 5Nt: "partner, what slam do you like?"
Then correct 6D to 6S.

[gszes]

great hand real trouble now---so is there anything reasonable??
I use 5n here to show 2 suits Major/dia 6c to show both M.
IMO I would try

6c

here mainly because p might be able to bid 6d if they have long
diamonds and no strong major fit. This leaves us in position to
possibly benefit from all three side suits. We will never have a
decent shot at bidding 7 of anything but just merely arriving in our
best small slam will surely gather a 7c bid from the opps and I would
much rather defend 7c x vs the almost certain 5cx we face it we
opt to x.

5s is not only dangerous it will almost never ever get us to a slam. At
least going for slam has a reasonable risk/reward ratio. 6s gets us to
slam and has some merit but it is also totally ignoring the other possibilities
for no really good reason.

[mikeh]

trevahound, on 2013-April-29, 12:28, said:

Chris, you can't bully me into a plus score. I refuse to be pushed around like that. I'll take my minus like a piker. Unlike everyone wiser than I above (no small subset), I expect to get a shot at 6c as often as not at these colors.

Not against good opps you won't. No good player would bid 5 then 6, having made you guess. For one thing, after you bid 5♠ if it goes P P 6♣ you have the world's easiest forcing pass.

[trevahound]

mikeh, on 2013-April-29, 14:09, said:

Not against good opps you won't. No good player would bid 5 then 6, having made you guess. For one thing, after you bid 5♠ if it goes P P 6♣ you have the world's easiest forcing pass.

No good player on a bidding forum will, agreed. I'm sure I've heard once or twice about it happening in real life.

[phil_20686]

gwnn, on 2013-April-29, 03:33, said:

This hand reminds me of a thread (hopefully not too soon to link it). Anyway I would X here, we're far from sure of 5-level safety.
http://www.bridgebas...prove-me-wrong/

I am desperate to know what the "other thread....entertainment on tap" that jdonn refers to at the end is. Can you find that one gwnn?

[phil_20686]

I think this is much easier than the other problem from gwnn's necro fwiw. I would double, and not consider anything else. I feel strongly that 5S will be ev negative at these colours.

[655321]

phil_20686, on 2013-April-29, 16:05, said:

I am desperate to know what the "other thread....entertainment on tap" that jdonn refers to at the end is. Can you find that one gwnn?

Search for posts made by pclayton around May 26/27, 2008 (the date of Jdonn's post).

[JLOGIC]

Please don't imply that I am making bad calls is a classic. Can't believe that was 5 years ago. Anyways, I would double on this hand also.