[lamford]

---

This was a hand a short time ago from the Venice Cup final, rotated for convenience, as they say in all bridge columns. West led the two of spades (2nd and 4th) to the ace, and the ten of spades was returned. How would you play? East will turn up with Jxx in clubs. 3♦ was both minors, FG, with longer diamonds.

[manudude03]

I'm probably finessing here, but before I commit, I play the ace of hearts, ruff a heart, ace of diamonds, then 3 rounds of trumps ending in hand which might help get a better count of the hand (especially if the queen of hearts comes down in 3 or they break 6-2)

[lamford]

manudude03, on 2013-September-28, 04:43, said:

I'm probably finessing here, but before I commit, I play the ace of hearts, ruff a heart, ace of diamonds, then 3 rounds of trumps ending in hand which might help get a better count of the hand (especially if the queen of hearts comes down in 3 or they break 6-2)

You are presumably not worried about West having JTxx in clubs, which will beat you whether or not you get the diamonds right. There was a network fault (it was board 1 of a segment) so none of the play is recorded in any match on this interesting board, but I think I would cash the queen of clubs at trick three. All follow, and if you draw trumps and cash a top diamond nothing happens, East pitching two spades on the clubs. You could cash two top hearts now, and ruff a heart, but then if you cross in trumps and finesse the diamond, you can go many off. Also the opponents may drop the queen of hearts when it is not dropping (it is a Bermuda Bowl or Venice Cup final after all), so you will only learn something meaningful if hearts are 6-2.

[gnasher]

lamford, on 2013-September-28, 05:10, said:

You are presumably not worried about West having JTxx in clubs, which will beat you whether or not you get the diamonds right. There was a network fault (it was board 1 of a segment) so none of the play is recorded on this interesting board in any match, but I think I would cash the queen of clubs at trick three. All follow, and if you draw trumps and cash a top diamond nothing happens, East pitching two spades on the clubs. You could cash two top hearts now, and ruff a heart, but then if you cross in trumps and finesse the diamond, you can go many off. Also the opponents may drop the queen of hearts when it is not dropping (it is a Bermuda Bowl or Venice Cup final after all), so you will only learn something meaningful if hearts are 6-2.

If the opponents drop ♥Q when it is not dropping, you'll know that they've done that, because they will follow to ♥J when you cash it.

[PhilKing]

East is presumably 6223 or 6313 (rarely 7213 7123, and diamonds are "never" 4-0). 6313 is much more likely since we are missing far more hearts, but by just bashing out diamonds from the top we have the extra chance that he has Qxx of hearts, since West now gets squeezed in the reds.

My guess is that the second round finesse is still slightly better.

[lamford]

gnasher, on 2013-September-28, 05:35, said:

If the opponents drop ♥Q when it is not dropping, you'll know that they've done that, because they will follow to ♥J when you cash it.

I was assuming you would play AK and another heart ruffed, and it would "drop" then. But even if they did drop the queen on the previous round, it would not help you to learn that they had done so.

[lamford]

PhilKing, on 2013-September-28, 05:45, said:

East is presumably 6223 or 6313 (rarely 7213 7123, and diamonds are "never" 4-0). 6313 is much more likely since we are missing far more hearts, but by just bashing out diamonds from the top we have the extra chance that he has Qxx of hearts, since West now gets squeezed in the reds.

My guess is that the second round finesse is still slightly better.

If you think these are the only shapes, you can play ace, king and ruff a heart, and you will find out which. I would be worried that the two of spades was not fourth best, however, despite what we are told, as you might say. And, given the network error, the two of spades might be randomly entered by the BBO operator catching up, so all we are pretty sure of is that a spade was led. BBO shows an accepted claim at trick two for the hand, clearly overoptimistic.

[gnasher]

lamford, on 2013-September-28, 05:46, said:

I was assuming you would play AK and another heart ruffed, and it would "drop" then. But even if they did drop the queen on the previous round, it would not help you to learn that they had done so.

I didn't say I would do anything. I was responding to your suggestion that if you "cash two top hearts now, and ruff a heart ... the opponents may drop the queen of hearts when it is not dropping ... so you will only learn something meaningful if hearts are 6-2".

This analysis is incorrect. If ♥Q appears, after you have crossed back in trumps you cash ♥J. If the player who had the queen discards, you have learned that hearts were meaningfully 5-3. If it turns out that hearts were 4-4 or 5-3 the other way, you can ignore the information you received, or you can try to outthink them.

[nige1]

lamford, on 2013-September-28, 04:02, said:

This was a hand a short time ago from the Venice Cup final, rotated for convenience, as they say in all bridge columns. West led the two of spades (2nd and 4th) to the ace, and the ten of spades was returned. How would you play? East will turn up with Jxx in clubs. 3♦ was both minors, FG, with longer diamonds.

---

• I like Manudude03's line: ♠K, ♣Q (in case LHO has 4 ♣), ♣AK (drawing trumps), ♦K (in case LHO has 4 ♦). Now ♥AK, ruff a ♥ with ♣9 (attempting to generate extra undertricks). Return to hand with the last trump. Unless RHO appears to have short ♥, finesse ♦ next (because LHO seems to have more vacant spaces).
• But Granny recommends PhilKing's alternative line: Play ♦AK (her standard safety play to avoid losing to doubleton Q). Now (provided you haven't touched ♥), if ♦Q doesn't drop, you still make when RHO has ♥Q and the same player (probably LHO) has length in both red suits. An argument against this line is that RHO could render it stillborn by returning a ♥ at trick two.

[gnasher]

PhilKing, on 2013-September-28, 05:45, said:

by just bashing out diamonds from the top we have the extra chance that he has Qxx of hearts, since West now gets squeezed in the reds.

Suppose that this were the Bermuda Bowl rather than the Venice Cup. Would you be concerned that West had failed to break up this squeeze by playing a heart at trick two?

[nige1]

gnasher, on 2013-September-28, 06:52, said:

Suppose that this were the Bermuda Bowl rather than the Venice Cup. Would you be concerned that West had failed to break up this squeeze by playing a heart at trick two?

You may regret that comment when vampyr sees it

[lamford]

gnasher, on 2013-September-28, 06:19, said:

I didn't say I would do anything. I was responding to your suggestion that if you "cash two top hearts now, and ruff a heart ... the opponents may drop the queen of hearts when it is not dropping ... so you will only learn something meaningful if hearts are 6-2".

This analysis is incorrect. If ♥Q appears, after you have crossed back in trumps you cash ♥J. If the player who had the queen discards, you have learned that hearts were meaningfully 5-3. If it turns out that hearts were 4-4 or 5-3 the other way, you can ignore the information you received, or you can try to outthink them.

I understand; I guess the queen of hearts is a red herring. So, I now think the right line is to start with the queen of clubs, draw trumps, cash a top diamond and then play ace, king and ruff a heart. If all follow, you know East is 5-4-1-3, 6-3-1-3 or 5-3-2-3 (where it matters). If East shows out you know she is 6-2-2-3 or 7-2-1-3 (where it matters). It then depends on what the spade spot card was, what it said, and how often it would be a true card against a slam. I think at this level, if East did have HQxx and a singleton diamond she would have returned a heart, as nige1 observes. If you discover that East has three or more hearts and three clubs, then you finesse the diamond. If you discover that East has two or fewer hearts and three clubs you play for the drop. The spade suit cannot be included in the analysis as it can be distributed in any manner and they are not at the table to help you.

[gnasher]

nige1, on 2013-September-28, 06:54, said:

You may regret that comment when vampyr sees it

I doubt it. I'm quite sure Vampyr would agree that there at least a 11:1 chance that East in the Bermuda Bowl is a better defender than East in the Venice Cup.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2013-September-28, 07:05

[lamford]

nige1, on 2013-September-28, 06:54, said:

You may regret that comment when vampyr sees it

Or when his team-mate FrancesHinden sees it! But I know it was tongue-in-cheek.

[BillHiggin]

We may not have vugraph records, but we have the memory of one each Bill Higgins! Unfortunately, my memory has taken some really hard hits recently (several episodes of oxygen deprivation and a stroke).
I watched Fantoni play this against Versache/Lauria. The opening lead was the ♠5 (3rd/5th presumably). I believe that Versace returned a spade after winning the ace, but do not recall the spot card. Fulvio drew 3 rounds of trumps, cashed the top hearts and ruffed a heart (the Q dropped doubleton from West. Now a top diamond was cashed and a trump used to return to hand. He then cashed the ♥J and then dropped the offside ♦Q.

Those that were going to rely on a red suit squeeze will be pleased about dropping the Q! That works better than a squeeze for the 11th trick!

[johnu]

lamford, on 2013-September-28, 04:02, said:

West led the two of spades (2nd and 4th)

I'm not real familiar with these leads, but isn't 2 led from 6 as well (low from even)? If that's the case, inferential counts based on assumed spade counts are more suspect than usual.

[gnasher]

BillHiggin, on 2013-September-28, 12:07, said:

Those that were going to rely on a red suit squeeze will be pleased about dropping the Q! That works better than a squeeze for the 11th trick!

Those that were going to rely on a red-suit squeeze were going to use a heart finesse for the 11th trick and the squeeze for the 12th.

[lamford]

BillHiggin, on 2013-September-28, 12:07, said:

Fulvio drew 3 rounds of trumps, cashed the top hearts and ruffed a heart (the Q dropped doubleton from West. Now a top diamond was cashed and a trump used to return to hand. He then cashed the ♥J and then dropped the offside ♦Q.

I am sure that is the right line, which is to only consider the available spaces in hearts and clubs. The hand is rotated in my diagram (perhaps that is not such a good idea). Fulvio found that East had 8 pointed suit cards and West 7, so East was favourite to hold the queen of diamonds.

[gnasher]

lamford, on 2013-September-28, 14:10, said:

Fulvio found that East had 8 pointed suit cards and West 7, so East was favourite to hold the queen of diamonds.

The conclusion is correct, but I think the maths is wrong. The count of the small diamonds is also known. East (in the diagram) had shown up with 3 clubs, 2 hearts and 1 small diamond; West with 1 club, 6 hearts and 2 small diamonds. Hence the odds were 7:4.

[gnasher]

johnu, on 2013-September-28, 13:21, said:

I'm not real familiar with these leads, but isn't 2 led from 6 as well (low from even)? If that's the case, inferential counts based on assumed spade counts are more suspect than usual.

Playing English-style 2nd/4th leads, you lead 4th from Hxxx, Hxxxx and Hxxxxx. It's different in Poland.