Posted 2013-October-22, 04:06
I don't think I can draw any useful inferences from the bidding. xx KJ10x Axx Axxx isn't enough for RHO to make a takeout double of 2NT at this vulnerability. x KJ10x Axx Axxxx would be enough, but if he has that hand I'm going down regardless of what I do.
I can think of two conflicting factors:
- I know of two of LHO's cards, but only one of RHO's. Hence RHO is a priori 12:11 to have ♥K.
- LHO led a club not a heart. With similar club and heart holdings he might have led a club. That suggests LHO is more likely to have the ♥K.
I'm not convinced by the second of these. With something like xx Kxxx Axx J10xx he might have led a heart anyway, so the club lead might suggest a heart holding like Jxxx. Hence I play RHO for ♥K, and I cover ♣J.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn