[whereagles]

After some ridiculous bidding, you land on your feet in a reasonably decent grand slam

South plays 7H. Lead: spade 9

---

West leads 9 spades (dummy's first suit bid) after some thought (not much time though).

There seems to be two lines:

1. Disc a club on a diamond and ruff a club.
2. Try to setup spades, regardless of the lead warnings.

You can also try for a squeeze, but for that you'd need RHO to have KJ of clubs (not very likely).

How do you evaluate your chances and how would you play it?

Thx in advance

[Antrax]

Is this one of those cases where you took the obvious line (1) and your partner yelled at you when diamonds were 5-2?

[manudude03]

I'd play for diamonds 4-3 too. On a minor note, it is extremely unlikely that there would be a squeeze against RHO, your club threat is the 5.

[whereagles]

I thought the club 10 was with south, sorry. Anyway, forget that line. It's inferior no matter what lol.

As to whether (1) is obvious, well that's what I want to find out

[Antrax]

In my non-expert opinion, developing spades requires trumps to behave, and it's more likely diamonds behave.

[Cyberyeti]

Antrax, on 2014-January-09, 07:00, said:

In my non-expert opinion, developing spades requires trumps to behave, and it's more likely diamonds behave.

No it doesn't, J♦ is an entry so you can draw 4 rounds then ruff a spade.

9♠ is an odd lead, I wouldn't read too much into it, but why hasn't he led a trump ? I'd need to see the auction to know what you've shown/denied and what the leader might be afraid of in the other suits.

[Antrax]

Cyberyeti, on 2014-January-09, 07:21, said:

No it doesn't, J♦ is an entry so you can draw 4 rounds then ruff a spade.

I'm being dense, but what do you mean? You need an entry to enjoy the spades, right?

[Cyberyeti]

Antrax, on 2014-January-09, 07:29, said:

I'm being dense, but what do you mean? You need an entry to enjoy the spades, right?

And J♦ is that entry.

[wanoff]

Take the ♥KQ first and you also beat some 4-1 spade breaks.

[c_corgi]

If I were West I would be very reluctant to lead a stiff 9 of spades. It looks like a strong inference that spades are 3-2.

[WellSpyder]

c_corgi, on 2014-January-09, 09:09, said:

If I were West I would be very reluctant to lead a stiff 9 of spades. It looks like a strong inference that spades are 3-2.

Indeed - I was also trying to interpret the "lead warnings" referred to in the OP. Against a small slam it would be different, of course, since West might be looking for a ruff, but that is not typically the case against a grand! He might be looking to give a ruff, of course, but in that case the spades are presumably 5-0 and there is nothing you can do about it.

[whereagles]

Auction went

South North
1♥ 1♠
3♦ 4NT
5♦ 5NT
7♦ 7♥
pass

4NT was RKCB for diamonds.
5NT was a general grand slam try.
7♦ was "I got 9 tricks in the reds, 1 ruff, 2 aces. That's 12 on top and I'm sure I can conjure up a 13th."
7♥ was "oops.. things got out of hand.. hope this makes"

I told you bidding was ridiculous

And.. spades are not 5-0 of course

[Cyberyeti]

On that auction, particularly if I have a stiff heart and the K♣, the J or both, I probably lead a spade regardless of the spade length. It's also possible a spade lead will cause comms issues if declarer has a stiff spade which is not that unlikely.

A singleton spade alongside any 3/4 card heart holding would be very unattractive to lead against a grand for most people.

Is Q98, x, xxxxx, Kxxx plausible ? I'd certainly lead 9♠ from that.

[gnasher]

Ignoring any inferences from the lead:

(1) Play diamonds immediately: works when diamonds are 4-3; or LHO has two diamonds, ♣K and the spade length.

(2) Draw two trumps from hand and then play spades: works when spades are 3-2; or the same hand has four spades and three trumps.

In each case the secondary chance is only going to be worth a few percent, so we can probably just compare the two main chances. 4-3 is 62%, and 3-2 is 68%, so I'm sure line (2) is better a priori.

What can we infer from the lead? It will probably never be a singleton, but will quite often be a "cunning" play from a 4-card holding.

However, we don't have all the information we're entitled to. What did RHO play on the first spade?

[Cyberyeti]

gnasher, on 2014-January-09, 13:28, said:

What can we infer from the lead? It will probably never be a singleton, but will quite often be a "cunning" play from a 4-card holding.

However, we don't have all the information we're entitled to. What did RHO play on the first spade?

Exactly, I was assuming RHO played small as we weren't told he didn't, and it's an odd lead from QJ9x.

[nige1]

whereagles, on 2014-January-09, 05:50, said:

After some ridiculous bidding, you land on your feet in a reasonably decent grand slam
South plays 7H. Lead: spade 9
West leads 9 spades (dummy's first suit bid) after some thought (not much time though).
There seems to be two lines:
1. Disc a club on a diamond and ruff a club.
2. Try to setup spades, regardless of the lead warnings.
You can also try for a squeeze, but for that you'd need RHO to have KJ of clubs (not very likely).
How do you evaluate your chances and how would you play it?

---

I'd go for the ruffing out ♠ line but the suggested lines are close:

• ♠K, ♥AKQJ, ♠A, ruff a ♠ depends on a 3-2 break. 68%? or 71%, now that the 5-0 break is eliminated? or worse because of the lead?
• Wanoff's line: ♥KQ and if they break then then ♠AK is even better
• ♠K, ♦JQK ♣A, ♣ ruff seems to depend on a 4-3 break (62%). However you have a slight extra chance. If LHO has only 2♦, you can over-ruff him, cash ♣A and run your red-suits, squeezing him, if he has ♣K and has led from a 3 or 4 card ♠ holding,

[whereagles]

Thx all.

I was south and I played KQ♥. I reasoned if trumps are 3-2, I could try and ruff out the spades completely. This works even with spades 4-1 if the player with a singleton happens to have only 2 spades.

In practice RHO discarded in the 2nd trump, so I was left with the chance of spades 3-2. Played to the A♥, then got back to hand with a diamond to pull last trump and ruffed a spade. The ♦J served as entry to the established spades.

I'm glad I followed this line because diamonds proved to be 5-2, but I wasn't sure it was the best chance. In any case both lines are close, so any of them would be a good plan.

Cheers!

P.S. east's spade on trick 1 was a non-descript 5.

[Mbodell]

I think at the table I'd cash ♠A, ♥A, ♥K, ♦J, ♦A, ♦K (pitch ♣), ♣A, ♣ ruff, ♠K, ♠ ruff (high if trump were 3-2, low if not).

This requires diamonds 4-3 or short diamonds with short hearts and spades no worse than 3-2 (unless again short spades with short hearts). But looks like pulling trump and then going after spades is probably best.