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What response to multi? weak and distributional hand

#41 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2014-October-14, 05:42

View Postel mister, on 2014-October-14, 02:54, said:

Don't understand that 1eyedjack - pard opens a multi, opp passes and it's reasonably likely that he's 24/25 balanced? That can't be right.


The probability changes with events:

Event 1. Partner opens a multi. The odds are massively in favour of him holding a weak 2 in a major.

Event 2. We look at our hand. The odds of him holding a strong hand increase considerably.

Event 3. RHO passes. The odds rise again.

Now I don't know how much by, but I am guessing they have risen enough to make passing insane - after all, it's not as if pass and 2 have greatly differing expected outcomes. But just to show how conditional probabilities can change, imagine:

Event 1 - 1. LHO passed and partner opened 2 in second seat. Now, after RHO's pass it would be unreasonable to conclude that partner has anything other than the strong balanced variant.
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#42 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2014-October-14, 17:12

View PostPhilKing, on 2014-October-14, 05:42, said:

Event 1 - 1. LHO passed and partner opened 2 in second seat. Now, after RHO's pass it would be unreasonable to conclude that partner has anything other than the strong balanced variant.

Unless, of course, the opponents are playing an unreasonable defense to Multi.
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#43 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2014-October-14, 21:31

View Postmgoetze, on 2014-October-14, 17:12, said:

Unless, of course, the opponents are playing an unreasonable defense to Multi.


I guess so - and the conditional probability they play such a defence has gone up hugely.
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#44 User is offline   jallerton 

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Posted 2014-October-15, 00:41

View Postel mister, on 2014-October-11, 04:01, said:

MP club game, fav vuln, pard opens a multi 2 in first seat, passed to you. Your hand:

xx QTxxxxx Jxxx

Anything to say?

[multi is weak 2M, strong acol 2 in the minors, or massive balanced]


How strong is the 'massive balanced' option?
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#45 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2014-October-15, 03:31

View Postjallerton, on 2014-October-15, 00:41, said:

How strong is the 'massive balanced' option?


OP said 24-25 further up the thread
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#46 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2014-October-15, 03:47

View Postmgoetze, on 2014-October-14, 17:12, said:

Unless, of course, the opponents are playing an unreasonable defense to Multi.

You probably refer to defences like
dbl = take-out on spades
pass = among other things a take-out double on hearts

But isn't it reasonable to pass first with some awkward hands, like hands with both majors?
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#47 User is offline   Wackojack 

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Posted 2014-October-15, 09:56

My understanding of the EBU laws re the multi where the following are relavent to the discussion

11G6 The multi 2 must contain a weak option and one or 2 strong options.
(ii) At least 1 strong option must be of reasoble frequency.
(v) Responder is expected to explore game possibilities if his hand justifies it opposite the stronger option of opener's multi 2

If these rules have not been changed recently then the questions that arise are:
What is a reasonable frequency? 24+ balanced = about 1 in 2000 hands. 20+ bal = about 1 in 100 hands.
Then you could argue that if your strong option is bal 20 you could reasonably pass as game is still speculative whereas opposite 24+ you MUST explore further.

I play multi with one partner in EBU land so I would like an answer.
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#48 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2014-October-15, 10:24

You must be looking at the old level 3, Jack.

Weak-only is ok at level 4
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#49 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2014-October-15, 10:28

View Posthelene_t, on 2014-October-15, 10:24, said:

You must be looking at the old level 3, Jack.

Weak-only is ok at level 4


But what he is suggesting is that if you do include a strong option, you can't just float it when you don't see partner's lips move.
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#50 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2014-October-15, 10:43

View PostWackojack, on 2014-October-15, 09:56, said:

My understanding of the EBU laws re the multi where the following are relavent to the discussion

11G6 The multi 2 must contain a weak option and one or 2 strong options.
(ii) At least 1 strong option must be of reasoble frequency.
(v) Responder is expected to explore game possibilities if his hand justifies it opposite the stronger option of opener's multi 2

If these rules have not been changed recently then the questions that arise are:
What is a reasonable frequency? 24+ balanced = about 1 in 2000 hands. 20+ bal = about 1 in 100 hands.
Then you could argue that if your strong option is bal 20 you could reasonably pass as game is still speculative whereas opposite 24+ you MUST explore further.

I play multi with one partner in EBU land so I would like an answer.


Strong 2m is also in there and frequent enough.

I also remember that there is some latitude from a case where somebody passed a multi with a hand with 5 spades and 6 diamonds and about 15 points. That partner had a weak 2 in hearts was reckoned to be so much more likely than a balanced 21-22 in this case that it was fine to pass.
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#51 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2014-October-15, 12:01

View PostPhilKing, on 2014-October-15, 10:28, said:

But what he is suggesting is that if you do include a strong option, you can't just float it when you don't see partner's lips move.

OK, but that just means I can't use UI. If partner's change of suit after my preempt is unlimited I can't pass it when .... is there anything special about multi?
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#52 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2014-October-15, 12:51

View PostWackojack, on 2014-October-15, 09:56, said:

(v) Responder is expected to explore game possibilities if his hand justifies it opposite the stronger option of opener's multi 2.
I play multi with one partner in EBU land so I would like an answer

View Posthelene_t, on 2014-October-15, 10:24, said:

You must be looking at the old level 3, Jack.

View PostPhilKing, on 2014-October-15, 10:28, said:

But what he is suggesting is that if you do include a strong option, you can't just float it when you don't see partner's lips move.

View PostCyberyeti, on 2014-October-15, 10:43, said:

I also remember that there is some latitude from a case where somebody passed a multi with a hand with 5 spades and 6 diamonds and about 15 points. That partner had a weak 2 in hearts was reckoned to be so much more likely than a balanced 21-22 in this case that it was fine to pass.
The rules have changed but I remember playing with and against multi, a few years ago, in an EBU pairs event. An opponent earned a top by passing out a multi 2 with a good hand but a potential misfit. We studied EBU regulations in force at the time and tried hard to comply with them, ourselves, so we called the director. After consultation, the director ruled that we had no case, explaining that "is expected to" is different from "is obliged to". Laws guru, Grattan Endicott, endorsed this interpretaion on BLML. The incident occasioned some hilarity among the Scottish contingent because the introduction to the (then current) EBU regulations stipulated that players "are expected to" comply with them. It's understandable, however, that local bridge regulations handicap strangers and foreigners. ACBL multi regulations are an extreme example.
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#53 User is offline   1eyedjack 

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Posted 2014-October-15, 13:05

What is the point of stipulating "is expected to" in the laws, if there is no sanction for failing to meet that expectation?
Psych (pron. saik): A gross and deliberate misstatement of honour strength and/or suit length. Expressly permitted under Law 73E but forbidden contrary to that law by Acol club tourneys.

Psyche (pron. sahy-kee): The human soul, spirit or mind (derived, personification thereof, beloved of Eros, Greek myth).
Masterminding (pron. mPosted ImagesPosted ImagetPosted Imager-mPosted ImagendPosted Imageing) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.

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2000 years earlier: "morituri te salutant"

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