[y66]

Justin Trudeau said:

Félicitations, @JoeBiden et @KamalaHarris.

Nos pays sont de proches amis, partenaires et alliés. Nous avons une relation unique sur la scène internationale. J’ai vraiment hâte de poursuivre notre travail en ce sens, avec vous.

[y66]

The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan said:

in a congratulatory tweet to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, “It’s time to get back to building bridges, not walls.”

[shyams]

Below is an indicator of how much the betting world does not trust your nation's administration + its much vaunted checks and balances.

At this moment, I can bet £100 on Biden and make a £4 return on it.
* Given that Biden's presidency is a certainty such a return is absolutely absurd. Yet, it is there and I can honestly put a few thousand quid to give myself (what should be) a guaranteed return.
* In case someone thinks this is a quack website or that the trading is really thin, I am talking about BETFAIR --- a gamblers trading platform where punters make all bets and there is no "house" to bet against. If I had the money, I could place a bet of £100,000 and the market would barely move despite such a huge amount being placed on one outcome.
* The total amount of money traded on this specific market so far is £ 550 million (roughly US$ 720m). Yes, this is trading volume and the underlying profits or losses would be much lower because the same person would be both backing and laying on a specific outcome which means they only receive the net position as payout.

Four years ago, I had a very small amount bet on Hillary to win. I vividly remember that when I woke up on Wednesday morning (i.e. day after election), the market was already trading at 1%. By the time it was noon UK, the yield had gone to zero --- i.e. you could no longer make money by betting on Trump. If we (the outside world) believed USA to be about the same as in 2016, we should have seen yields to be sub-1% at this time. Definitely not 4%!!

I realise I am simplifying things there and creating a narrative to fit my theory ("USA's checks & balances are all distorted"). Yet I am not totally wrong -- I am showing you the true monetary cost of your corruption. And the opportunity to make a so-called "risk-free" return on your funds.

Finally, NO I am not going to put new money on this market; logic says I should but fear of Trump and the Republicans is holding me back.




If you don't believe that the market still pays to bet on Biden, here is a link to a gambling website (caution: do not click if your country has restrictive laws that prohibit your landing on their site)

[pilowsky]

And, now the time has come.

[cherdano]

So. Shall we start a new thread?

[pilowsky]

Probably...
edit...wait, let's discuss it

[johnu]

 Winstonm, on 2020-November-06, 19:53, said:

If Biden indeed wins, I hope his first day one activity is to fire Bill Barr.

Every single Manchurian President political appointee, in the White House, in every government agency should be on notice that they will be fired at 12 noon, January 20, and all career employees should be aware of that fact so they can resist illegal orders in the next 2 months.

Every Manchurian President executive order should be nulled and voided at 12 noon, January 20

Every Manchurian President effort to corrupt and disable government agencies should be nulled and voided at 12 noon, January 20

[johnu]

 cherdano, on 2020-November-07, 14:10, said:

So. Shall we start a new thread?

There are still 2 more months when the Manchurian President will still be in office. There is no end to the damage he may cause both domestically and world wide. If anything, he will feel no constraints in acting out his most delusional fantasies. He will fire anybody who gets in his way as there are no political repercussions to worry about.

[y66]

People in New York after the announcement of Joe Biden's election victory Photo: CARLO ALLEGRI / REUTERS

[helene_t]

 shyams, on 2020-November-07, 13:13, said:

At this moment, I can bet £100 on Biden and make a £4 return on it.

I would expect that each market has its own definitions of what it means that "Biden won" for payout purposes. Odds 104 that the EC will elect Biden is maybe not absurd. Odds 104 that AP will call it for Biden is of course absurd.

[hrothgar]

Theme song for the next couple months:

https://www.youtube....h?v=yeguhbh_V0U

[Winstonm]

 cherdano, on 2020-November-07, 14:10, said:

So. Shall we start a new thread?

I believe we can close this thread with one last comment from Robert DeNiro:

[johnu]

The Scariest Days Of The Trump Presidency Could Be The Final 74

Quote

Daniel Goldman, a former federal prosecutor who served as House Democrats’ lead lawyer during Trump’s impeachment hearings, said he predicts the president and his aides will have a busy 10 weeks or so.

“Issue all sorts of executive orders rolling back additional Obama regulations, implement new regulations without proper notice and comment, kneecap and handcuff various agencies, use the levers of power to grease the wheels for his personal financial interests post-presidency,” Goldman said. “And, of course, pardons like you’ve never seen before.”

One of Trump’s possible pardons, of course, could be for himself, to remove the threat of federal prosecution for potential crimes he may have committed, both before taking office (bank and tax fraud) and during these past four years (obstruction of justice, for example). It’s unclear whether he is actually permitted to self-pardon, but Trump has shown he is willing to break guidelines and laws when useful for him.

[thepossum]

I can get $2.75 that Twitter will suspend Donald Trump's main/personal/whatever account by the end of the year

Serious question though, can anyone advise (in short ) any changes in how the WHitehouse and Congress operate consitutionally between election results and inaugurations

[shyams]

 helene_t, on 2020-November-07, 15:37, said:

I would expect tha each market has its own definitions of what it means that "Biden won" for payout purposes. Odds 104 that the EC will elect Biden is maybe not absurd. Odds 104 that AP will call it for Biden is of course absurd.

I've read the rules a few times months ago; the result of this vote alone counts.

Betfair website said:

Rules:
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2020. If more than one election takes place in 2020, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.

If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

[Stephen Tu]

OMG this had me in uncontrollable laughter for 4 minutes straight ...
Apparently Trump intended to send his minions to do a press conference at the Four Seasons hotel in Philadelphia to rant about imaginary voter fraud/irregularities ... but somehow they bungled arranging this and ended up at "Four Seasons Total Landscaping", some random landscaping shop at the edge of the city next to a crematorium and an adult bookstore, apparently unable to do anything but go through with it.

https://www.complex....ndscaping-tweet
Now back to crying that people this incompetent are still in charge for 2 more months while 120k COVID cases in a day == "rounding the corner".

[pilowsky]

Here is a link to some Research by the unfortunately named Pew Center
No doubt many of you have seen this stuff before, but what does it mean?

I have been running for public office since I was 14. I ran for state parliament as a Labor candidate and I know and have discussed the significance of internal party polling with candidates Journalists, Party leaders, etc. I learned a few things along the way.
Fact: the only time you can trust someone is when they look you in the eye and tell you they are NOT going to vote for you. Everything else is BS.
Fact, only internal party polls are accurate and you don't get to see them.
Fact scrutineers (poll-watchers) reports are the most accurate on election night.
A most important fact. There are some things that people are concerned about, but there are some things that they will 100% change their vote for no matter that the candidate has three heads and speaks Aramaic. Abortion is one of them, Money is another, and in the USA it seems that guns and socialism are a third.
Although Biden is going to win, America lost.
The Democrats lost seats in Congress they failed to pick up seats in the Senate. Graham, McConnell and Collins are still there.
Trump garnered more votes than any other candidate in history (apart from Biden).

Had it not been for the coronavirus I do not think Biden+Harris would be where they are now.

Biden is 78 years - good luck to him. Trump just played golf, tweeted, watched TV and intoned the delusional rantings of Stephen Miller via the teleprompter. Trump claims to have read one book - "All quiet on the western front" - the evidence that he actually read it is very slim.
Well, it isn't going to be quiet on the Western front for a long time.

Tighten your seat-belts - it's going to be a bumpy ride.

[thepossum]

One thing I've been wondering about, checking out the margins in swing states, is how much the Libertarians influenced the outcome

[johnu]

In case there was any doubt where the SNL crowd's political loyalties lie:

Saturday Night Live - Biden/Harris Acceptance speech

[y66]

Matt Yglesias said:

This is also why the instruction to ‘just follow the science’ isn’t enough to address this pandemic.


From On Randomized Trials and Medicine - The thorny, messy topic of why we don't have one for masks as source-control by Zeynep Tufceki