Bret: Gail, I feel like were living in a sci-fi movie, on a dying planet, getting bombarded by at least one giant asteroid a day. Lets take them one at a time: The Timess latest scoop on President Trumps tax returns. On one hand, Im appalled. On the other, not shocked in the slightest. I mean, its not exactly news that Trumps businesses have usually lost money hand over fist. Your thoughts?
Gail: Well for sure unshocked. But fascinated. Its great to have this info just as were moving into the election. Trump likes to brag that hes a big-time business genius. But according to the newsroom reporting, he paid $750 in taxes in 2016 and 2017, which Ill bet is way less than the guy who cuts his lawns.
Bret: Hell brag that its all part of his business genius.
Gail: And for sure I want to talk a lot about the $70,000 deduction for hair styling.
Bret: Comb-overs can be an art, Gail!
Another asteroid: Trumps declaration last week that there will be no peaceful transition of power. I have to say and I cant believe Im saying this that its getting me to rethink my call to repeal the Second Amendment.
Gail: Bret, dont go there with the gun thing. The N.R.A. loves nothing more than to argue they need guns to protect themselves from a possible uprising against what Ted Cruz called government tyranny. Weve got enough trouble already.
Bret: Except, in this case, the evil anti-American force is the Republican president. Sorry, go on.
Gail: Looks to me like there are lots of people in powerful positions privately discussing how to get the government back if Trump tries to pull a takeover. Even Mitch McConnell seems horrified. Although if it happened, Ill bet the ever-practical majority leader would
adjust.
Bret: I can already see the editorial line coming from the right-wing press. It would read roughly as follows: When the American people elected Donald Trump in 2016, they knew they were voting for a breaker of norms. While we believe it is unfortunate that President Trump has chosen to violate the oldest and most sacred norm in American politics by declaring himself the winner of an election he appears to have lost, it is certainly of a piece with his unique and compelling style. Also, lets not forget that the taboo against extending presidential terms beyond their traditional bounds was originally violated by a Democratic incumbent leftist icon Franklin D. Roosevelt
.
Gail: Love it that there are still people chafing about F.D.R.
Bret: Hey, I have a Wendell Willkie bumper sticker I mean to stick to my rear fender.
As for McConnell, Im sure he could find a way to get on board this train of self-serving logic, just as hes found a way to move forward with Amy Coney Barretts nomination to the Supreme Court in a presidential election year, after blocking Merrick Garlands nomination in 2016. Which is another reason we need Joe Biden to win in a landslide. Speaking of which, any hope for one?
Gail: Ive been telling folks in New York that even though their ballot isnt really needed to get Biden the states electoral votes, its important that we have a huge, ginormous national popular vote margin to help make the point that the Democrat really got elected.
Bret: Fine, but victories in three swing states would be better.
Gail: The problem, of course, is our weird system. Biden could get caught up in an electoral vote crisis over a few votes in Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin.
And then Donald Trump
what do you think it would take to convince Trump he lost and there was no way out?
Bret: Its either the 82nd Airborne or someone promises him another reality TV show. In the next one, he can pretend to be a competent president just like he pretended to be a competent businessman in the last one.
But this brings me to our third asteroid: the nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett. From a political standpoint, I think she was a very canny pick. As a judge and former law professor who is well-versed in Constitutional jurisprudence, she knows the law and wont present Harriet Miers or Harrold Carswell issues, and she wont present any Brett Kavanaugh or Clarence Thomas issues either. As a rock-solid conservative who clerked for Antonin Scalia, she wont present any Earl Warren or David Souter issues. And as a devoted Catholic, she might tempt liberals to attack her, foolishly, for her private religious convictions, which is what Dianne Feinstein did in 2017 when she told Barrett in her confirmation hearing for the Appellate seat that the dogma lives loudly within you.
My advice to Senate Democrats is to treat her respectfully, question her very closely about the constitutionality of Obamacare, and remember that the Kavanaugh hearings only helped Republicans expand their Senate majority in 2018. What do you think?
Gail: My rational self totally agrees. Barrett is certainly a way, way more sympathetic character than Kavanaugh was. At this point its hard to imagine her being blocked.
However, my extremely ticked-off and cranky side just wants to drive home to the public that with this new, 6-3 conservative majority they can wave goodbye not only to abortion rights, but also a ton of other things including protection against gender discrimination and any aggressive federal attempt to beat back climate change.
To be honest, Im pretty much resigned to the fact that the Senate will vote to confirm Barrett soon. All hope requires believing Mitt Romney will announce hes voting against her as a matter of principle because were so very, very close to a presidential election. What would you say the odds are on that?
Bret: Well, zero, despite my best efforts to convince him otherwise. And with only Susan Collins and maybe Lisa Murkowski opposing the nomination, the G.O.P. appears to have 51 votes to confirm. Even if Mark Kelly wins his special election in Arizona against Martha McSally and is seated in November, Barrett would still win on a 50-50 vote with Mike Pence as the tiebreaker.
All of which is to say, barring something very unexpected, Barrett is going to be confirmed and provide a sixth conservative vote even if, over time, she winds up shifting John Roberts and Neil Gorsuch a bit further to the left. (They both seem to be moving that way already.) That just means Biden has to win so he might have a chance to appoint Clarence Thomass eventual successor and bring the Court back to a 5-4 balance.
Speaking of winning, we have our first presidential debate coming up soon. Whats your advice to Joe?
Gail: Well I do like your theory that Trump has spent so much time painting his opponent as a senile idiot, the bar for beating expectations is pretty low.
Bret: Right. All Biden has to say is, Im Joe, two plus two is four and 10 times 10 is one hundred, I love my wife, Im not going to declare war on anyones suburb, my economic plan is to cut taxes on the middle class, build a faster Acela and declare the Trump hotel in Washington a toxic-waste dump, I wont blow up the world and Im definitely not Donald Trump. Argument over.
Gail: Can I say Im simultaneously hoping he projects a cheerful, warm personality while beating his opponent to a pulp on issues like health care and the environment?
Bret: Its very important for Biden to play the Happy Warrior. A few jokes would be great (assuming he doesnt fumble the punch lines). Above all, he shouldnt scare away wavering voters, either with a memory lapse or by advocating a far-left position, like free health care for illegal immigrants. He won the Democratic nomination as a moderate and thats the brand he needs to win the White House.
Gail: What about you? On matters of pure policy like health care or unions you may actually agree with Trump more often than Biden, right?
Bret: Well, it isnt so much that I agree more with Trump Im a much more libertarian conservative than this administration when it comes to trade, abortion, legal immigration and international alliances, to mention a few issues. But my disagreements with Biden, as broad as they are, seem fairly trivial given whats at stake in the election. Id rather have a president who might sometimes get a bit confused than one who deliberately sows confusion. Id rather lose more of my paycheck in taxes under Biden than lose more of my democracy in demagogic deceit under Trump. And Id rather have a president who willingly pays lots of taxes on a relatively low income than one who pays almost no taxes on a high one.
Gail: Ah. Thats why youre such a great sparring partner. Always with underlying principles.
Bret: Principles is a little too generous, Gail. I just like democracy.
Gail: Good slogan!
Bret: What about you? Do you have any serious policy differences with Biden?
Gail: Back in the day I wanted to see a way more ambitious health care plan, but truly, Im past the point of caring. Ill take Bidens Medicare expansion over Trumps repeal of protection for people with pre-existing conditions. But I admit that I am looking forward to complaining constantly if Biden is elected.
And you know, Bret, we got into the conversation idea with the expectation itd be liberal v. conservative. But Trumps candidacy sort of made us the Gang of Two.
Bret: I just hope we can be part of the Gang of 271 (or more) come November.