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what is the best line on a non trump lead?
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Percentage problem
#1
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Posted 2016-September-05, 13:35
what is the best line on a non trump lead?
#2
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Posted 2016-September-05, 14:17
One D Ruff & H finesse
#3
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Posted 2016-September-05, 14:31
What was the lead? A heart takes away your option to try for 3-2 clubs.
I try DA, D ruff, SJ hoping East wins (or W doesn't switch to hearts, which is unlikely). If they duck I cross to CK to draw more. Then try 3-2 clubs using HA as entry to cash, or if they break badly then H finesse.
Edit: there could also be some squeeze chances
ahydra
I try DA, D ruff, SJ hoping East wins (or W doesn't switch to hearts, which is unlikely). If they duck I cross to CK to draw more. Then try 3-2 clubs using HA as entry to cash, or if they break badly then H finesse.
Edit: there could also be some squeeze chances
ahydra
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Posted 2016-September-05, 15:28
I think the question hints at a crossruff.
wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:
Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the ♥3.
rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:
Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win
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#5
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Posted 2016-September-05, 15:30
sorry didn't see you could stablish clubs, the lead at the table was a heart. The perfectage question is 10 in 2 rounds vs 10 in 3 rounds and heart king onside.
#6
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Posted 2016-September-06, 00:35
Well singleton 10 is about 5.6% and doubleton 10 is about 27.2%, total 32.8%. The H finesse line also copes with singleton 10 so that's 50% of 73.6% = 36.8%, so technically slightly better, though you might be swayed by the exact spot led e.g. high would suggest the H finesse is off.
At the table I would be loathe to go all in on the H finesse at trick 1 and would try for a squeeze. But that may be because I don't play at a level where people underlead K against a slam.
ahydra
At the table I would be loathe to go all in on the H finesse at trick 1 and would try for a squeeze. But that may be because I don't play at a level where people underlead K against a slam.
ahydra
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Posted 2016-September-06, 00:50
ahydra, on 2016-September-06, 00:35, said:
Well singleton 10 is about 5.6% and doubleton 10 is about 27.2%, total 32.8%. The H finesse line also copes with singleton 10 so that's 50% of 73.6% = 36.8%, so technically slightly better, though you might be swayed by the exact spot led e.g. high would suggest the H finesse is off.
At the table I would be loathe to go all in on the H finesse at trick 1 and would try for a squeeze. But that may be because I don't play at a level where people underlead K against a slam.
ahydra
At the table I would be loathe to go all in on the H finesse at trick 1 and would try for a squeeze. But that may be because I don't play at a level where people underlead K against a slam.
ahydra
Actually tripleton♠10/doubleton♠10 probability is 60/40 ,so if you ruff 2♦ there is 60% chance that they will take 2 tricks in ♠. ♥finesse is having a 50% chance of loosing.
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Posted 2016-September-12, 02:03
ahydra, on 2016-September-06, 00:35, said:
Well singleton 10 is about 5.6% and doubleton 10 is about 27.2%, total 32.8%. The H finesse line also copes with singleton 10 so that's 50% of 73.6% = 36.8%, so technically slightly better, though you might be swayed by the exact spot led e.g. high would suggest the H finesse is off.
At the table I would be loathe to go all in on the H finesse at trick 1 and would try for a squeeze. But that may be because I don't play at a level where people underlead K against a slam.
ahydra
At the table I would be loathe to go all in on the H finesse at trick 1 and would try for a squeeze. But that may be because I don't play at a level where people underlead K against a slam.
ahydra
I agree with your maths and conclusion. Heart finesse and 1 ruff definitely looks like the best option, and I'd take the finesse even at trick one.
Trying to ruff 2 diamonds before drawing trumps also risks giving up a ruff/promotion in diamonds on an otherwise favourable layout. For example, if LHO has 3 diamonds and the Tx of spades.
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Posted 2016-September-12, 17:16
Fluffy, on 2016-September-05, 13:35, said:
what is the best line on a non trump lead?
Hanoi5, on 2016-September-05, 15:28, said:
I think the question hints at a crossruff.
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Agree with Hanoi5. e.g.
♥A, ♥ ruff, ♦AK, ♣KA, ♥ ruff, ♦ ruff low, ♥ ruff. ♦ ruff with ♠J, ♣ (over) ruff.
The same plan, in a slightly different order, works on any plain suit lead.
If the plain-suits behave, then the cross-ruff succeeds when East has 3+ ♠s or ♠T -
- You can handle many bad trump breaks
-- even 5-0 as in the diagram on the left.