[cherdano]

johnu, on 2022-April-13, 17:25, said:

Intelligence sources report that Russia is massing military equipment along the Finland border so clearly they still have a lot of military equipment available.

Source?

[pilowsky]

cherdano, on 2022-April-14, 02:11, said:

Source?

Mr Google - widely reported today - this from the independent.
I note that the Independent, whilst having (wikipedia) a leftish stance is owned by the son of an ex-KGB oligarch fwiw.
Baron Lebedev - thanks Boris.

[johnu]

hrothgar, on 2022-April-13, 07:19, said:

It's worth noting that that Sweden and Finland just finished a joint press conference in which they announced that they expect to join NATO in a matter of weeks.

Is it 100% that the US Senate will vote to admit Sweden and Finland if they do apply for NATO membership? Manchurian President Trump would likely defer to his puppet master Putin and direct QOP senate stooges to vote against membership. How many senate stooges and Russian assets would go along with Trump? There was just a symbolic resolution in the house to reaffirm US support for NATO in the house and 63 QOP house members voted against it, with no real lobbying from Trump and anti-NATO party officials. I'm not a gambler so I wouldn't put any money on the Senate approving Sweden and Finland memberships when it comes up.

[cherdano]

pilowsky, on 2022-April-14, 02:47, said:

Mr Google - widely reported today - this from the independent.

"Massing" != "a video of a few vehicles moving to the border"

Russia has moved s.th. like 75% of its army to Ukraine. In 1.5 months they have lost more tanks (just counting those for which there is photo or video evidence) than Germany and the UK possess, combined.

They are not starting another war any time soon.

[pilowsky]

I wasn't that impressed either, but that was the source.
Things look very scary in that part of the world.
100 years ago there was a war between Russia and Poland in the same region.
My grandfather was there and wrote this in his (handwritten) memoirs.

Yossel Pilowsky said:

We saw trains come into the station that were filled with wounded Russian soldiers, ...
There was one badly wounded soldier who called to me. He had heard there were people selling apples. He gave me this whole roll of money. "Even half an apple", he said.
But there was such a great crowd of soldiers around the apple sellers that I couldn't get near until the baskets had been empty. When I went back and told the soldier what had happened, he only turned away and wept and I had to put the money back in his hand.
They began to carry the bodies of the soldiers that had died out of the carriages and laid them down next to the trench. And then without taking off the uniforms or the helmets they laid them down one on top of another and when the grave was full they dropped in the sand again and stamped it down.
I had to go home and tell my parents there was no payment.
All that night I had terrible dreams of what I had seen. I was feverish, and my mother woke me up to give me tea to drink but it could not stop the dreaming. I heard all night the cries of the wounded and saw the bodies laid out on the ground.

Later he escaped from Europe - the rest of the family were not so fortunate.
Your confidence that the current conflagration will be contained to Ukraine is appealing.
I don't share it; people forget very quickly.

[cherdano]

Thank you for sharing your grandfather's memories. I was born in 1976, but still I am acutely aware how many were traumatized by WW2.

pilowsky, on 2022-April-14, 07:43, said:

Your confidence that the current conflagration will be contained to Ukraine is appealing.
I don't share it; people forget very quickly.[/size][/font]

I made a slightly different claim - that Russia won't start a new war by invading another country any time soon.

It is still possible for the current war to escalate to something bigger. If NATO announced tomorrow that there is a train on the way from Frankfurt via Warsaw to Kyiv full of long-range cruise missiles, then Russia would aim to hit that train. If that happens to occur before it crosses Polish-Ukraine border, then Poland will have an Article 5 decision to make.

[johnu]

cherdano, on 2022-April-14, 06:21, said:

Russia has moved s.th. like 75% of its army to Ukraine. In 1.5 months they have lost more tanks (just counting those for which there is photo or video evidence) than Germany and the UK possess, combined.

While that is a true fact, Germany is reported as having 236 tanks total. UK has 227 tanks total. Russia had 2800 tanks plus another 10,000 tanks in storage. By contrast, the USA has 6612 tanks.

Russia could lose several thousand tanks and still have more than Germany and the UK.

As far as troops, Russia has 1 million in its military, and 2 million in reserves. Finland has 5.5 million people spread over the entire country.

cherdano, on 2022-April-14, 06:21, said:

They are not starting another war any time soon.

I read from many informed people who got their news from official intelligence sources that Russia would not be starting a shooting war with Ukraine for months before they actually did start shooting. Sorry if I don't give your statement any credibility.

[akwoo]

johnu, on 2022-April-14, 17:01, said:

While that is a true fact, Germany is reported as having 236 tanks total. UK has 227 tanks total. Russia had 2800 tanks plus another 10,000 tanks in storage. By contrast, the USA has 6612 tanks.

People who seem knowledgeable to me are uncertain whether more than 500 or so of the Russian tanks in storage can actually be repaired to a useful state given parts currently available or produceable within a few months in Russia.

It may be more accurate to say that Russia has 10,000 tank-like pieces of junk in storage.

[johnu]

akwoo, on 2022-April-14, 22:34, said:

People who seem knowledgeable to me are uncertain whether more than 500 or so of the Russian tanks in storage can actually be repaired to a useful state given parts currently available or produceable within a few months in Russia.

It may be more accurate to say that Russia has 10,000 tank-like pieces of junk in storage.

Even 500 tanks is more than Germany and UK combined. And it's not just tanks, but armored personnel carriers, howitzers and the like, and missile launchers.

[hrothgar]

johnu, on 2022-April-15, 01:12, said:

Even 500 tanks is more than Germany and UK combined. And it's not just tanks, but armored personnel carriers, howitzers and the like, and missile launchers.

No doubt

If Russia spend years rearming
And if Western sanctions didn't cripple them in the mean time
they might be able to field a considerable military force once more

But short, or even mid term, that isn't happening

FWIW, I absolutely agree that a bunch of people claimed that Russia would never invade Ukraine. (I was heavily involved in Akamai's contingency planning around this most recent invasion. We heard this a whole bunch). However, there were also a bunch of other seemingly better informed source saying that the Russians were going to invade and that this decision had been made 9-12 months back.

And, these same sources are now saying that Russia is not longer in any position to invade Finland or Sweden any time soon.
They are having a hard enough time collapsing their lines back around Donetsk

[hrothgar]

johnu, on 2022-April-15, 01:12, said:

Even 500 tanks is more than Germany and UK combined. And it's not just tanks, but armored personnel carriers, howitzers and the like, and missile launchers.

No doubt

If Russia spend years rearming
And if Western sanctions didn't cripple them in the mean time
they might be able to field a considerable military force once more

But short, or even mid term, that isn't happening

FWIW, I absolutely agree that a bunch of people claimed that Russia would never invade Ukraine. (I was heavily involved in Akamai's contingency planning around this most recent invasion. We heard this a whole bunch). However, there were also a bunch of other seemingly better informed source saying that the Russians were going to invade and that this decision had been made 9-12 months back.

And, these same sources are now saying that Russia is not longer in any position to invade Finland or Sweden any time soon.
They are having a hard enough time collapsing their lines back around Donetsk

[hrothgar]

johnu, on 2022-April-15, 01:12, said:

Even 500 tanks is more than Germany and UK combined. And it's not just tanks, but armored personnel carriers, howitzers and the like, and missile launchers.

No doubt

If Russia spend years rearming
And if Western sanctions didn't cripple them in the mean time
they might be able to field a considerable military force once more

But short, or even mid term, that isn't happening

It's not enough to count tanks. You need logistics support and a supply chain to match. Russia couldn't put this together for Ukraine which is why their military operations have failed so dramatically.

FWIW, I absolutely agree that a bunch of people claimed that Russia would never invade Ukraine. (I was heavily involved in Akamai's contingency planning around this most recent invasion. We heard this a whole bunch). However, there were also a bunch of other seemingly better informed source saying that the Russians were going to invade and that this decision had been made 9-12 months back.

And, these same sources are now saying that Russia is not longer in any position to invade Finland or Sweden any time soon.
They are having a hard enough time collapsing their lines back around Donetsk

[thepossum]

I think whether or not the broader war is a conflagration is moot. History appears to be being repeated with large powers agreeing to and almost conspiring to let smaller ones suffer

[Winstonm]

Well, if the mid-terms turn out as poorly for the Democrats as is being suggested, Ukraine, like American school children, will be protected by “thoughts and prayers “ instead of weapons.

[Winstonm]

From the WaPo:

Quote

Russia this week sent a formal diplomatic note to the United States warning that U.S. and NATO shipments of the "most sensitive" weapons systems to Ukraine were "adding fuel" to the conflict there and could bring "unpredictable consequences."

Since when does the U.S. allow Russia to dictate U.S. foreign policy? We are already fighting Russia using proxy soldiers.

[johnu]

cherdano, on 2022-April-14, 06:21, said:

"Massing" != "a video of a few vehicles moving to the border"

That's just one photo. In bridge terms, a singleton. If you were actually interested, I'm sure you could find more photos. In case you didn't know, Russia has completely shut down its independent press and the Kremlin isn't going to voluntarily disclose military troop and equipment movements unless it a publicity campaign. Russia puts leakers of state secrets in prison FYI. So US and other countries are basing their information on satellite photos and other discrete information.

[johnu]

hrothgar, on 2022-April-15, 04:00, said:

If Russia spend years rearming
And if Western sanctions didn't cripple them in the mean time
they might be able to field a considerable military force once more

But short, or even mid term, that isn't happening

As I mentioned, Putin is today's Stalin. He could starve his country, and ruin the economy to produce military equipment. Stalin was trying to beat Hitler. Putin may be just nuts.

There should be no way that North Korea has the resources to develop nuclear weapons and missiles, and maintain a huge standing army. Never say never when you are willing to sacrifice your own people for your own delusions of grandeur.

[hrothgar]

johnu, on 2022-April-15, 21:26, said:

As I mentioned, Putin is today's Stalin. He could starve his country, and ruin the economy to produce military equipment. Stalin was trying to beat Hitler. Putin may be just nuts.

There should be no way that North Korea has the resources to develop nuclear weapons and missiles, and maintain a huge standing army. Never say never when you are willing to sacrifice your own people for your own delusions of grandeur.

What does any of this have to do with, say, the Russian's being able to invade Finland in the next three years or so?

What we are currently discovering is that the Russian military is hollow and unable to project significant force in large scale offensive operations against prepared / motivated opponents.

Yes, with a few years of preparation, this might change. However, the latest round of Russian military reforms do not appear to have been successful.

[johnu]

hrothgar, on 2022-April-15, 23:52, said:

What does any of this have to do with, say, the Russian's being able to invade Finland in the next three years or so?

The fact is that despite the losses in Ukraine, Russia has more than enough equipment and personnel to successfully invade Finland in a few months. Putin can move more than enough troops from Ukraine to Finland if he decides to consolidate his gains in eastern Ukraine, and defending a limited area is much easier than attacking across a substantial front line.

And exactly where are you coming up with 3 years to rearm? Like I said, Putin is capable of destroying the rest of Russia economy to build war supplies in a short time, and he has more than enough equipment left to invade Finland, while having factories work 24/7 on war supplies. You might comment that only an insane leader would do that. I agree, that's why I'm worried.

hrothgar, on 2022-April-15, 23:52, said:

What we are currently discovering is that the Russian military is hollow and unable to project significant force in large scale offensive operations against prepared / motivated opponents.

Looking at the pictures and the map of cities and towns that Russia has destroyed and the tens of thousands of Ukrainian citizens that have been killed or injured, and the millions that have been displaced, Ukraine has paid a terrible price against Russia's hollow military that you say couldn't project significant force against Ukrainian cities. Sure, the scale of Russian casualties would be completely unacceptable by US standards, but Putin is at best a sociopath who doesn't care about casualties and the actual military losses. Putin is only embarrassed by not getting a blitzkrieg victory against Ukraine, and that makes him very dangerous. While everybody remembers the Finland winter war, Stalin regrouped and sent 1/2 million troops back into Finland and by March of the next year had defeated Finland.

Against a rational leader, you are probably right that Russia is in no position to invade Finland. Putin is not a rational leader.

[Winstonm]

johnu, on 2022-April-16, 01:58, said:

The fact is that despite the losses in Ukraine, Russia has more than enough equipment and personnel to successfully invade Finland in a few months. Putin can move more than enough troops from Ukraine to Finland if he decides to consolidate his gains in eastern Ukraine, and defending a limited area is much easier than attacking across a substantial front line.

And exactly where are you coming up with 3 years to rearm? Like I said, Putin is capable of destroying the rest of Russia economy to build war supplies in a short time, and he has more than enough equipment left to invade Finland, while having factories work 24/7 on war supplies. You might comment that only an insane leader would do that. I agree, that's why I'm worried.



Looking at the pictures and the map of cities and towns that Russia has destroyed and the tens of thousands of Ukrainian citizens that have been killed or injured, and the millions that have been displaced, Ukraine has paid a terrible price against Russia's hollow military that you say couldn't project significant force against Ukrainian cities. Sure, the scale of Russian casualties would be completely unacceptable by US standards, but Putin is at best a sociopath who doesn't care about casualties and the actual military losses. Putin is only embarrassed by not getting a blitzkrieg victory against Ukraine, and that makes him very dangerous. While everybody remembers the Finland winter war, Stalin regrouped and sent 1/2 million troops back into Finland and by March of the next year had defeated Finland.

Against a rational leader, you are probably right that Russia is in no position to invade Finland. Putin is not a rational leader.

But does Putin have the same iron-fisted control of Russia as did Stalin? The stability of the Russian economy is Putin’s Achilles’ heel.