[jillybean]

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What is your approach here?

[mike777]

3NT

[mw64ahw]

Not sure I can construct a hand which gives a 50% slam let alone bid it so looking to play 3N.
Possibly

AKQ
K9x
xx
Jxxxx

[mikeh]

Got to be the easiest 3N ever. Might go down on a bad day but I’m still bidding game.

Oh…the ‘problem’ was whether or how to invite slam? Sorry…absent the title to the post it wouldn’t have occurred to me that I ought to even dream about slam.

I see an awful lot of club players who think that they have to bid slam when holding a flat 18 and partner opens….no…a thousand times no. After a 1 suit bid, by all means try for slam but don’t drive to it unless partner shows signs of life. Of course, most of these pairs don’t know how to look for slam….about the only way they know how to show slam interest is to bid blackwood or Gerber, lol. That’s bad when partner opens 1suit, but at least he may have extra playing strength either in terms of a long suit or extra hcp or both. When he opens a 10-13 1N, just bid 3N and say, if you’re so inclined…’giving you an easy one, pard’.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

4NT is certainly quantatitative, but you have only 18, facing a max. of 13, this makes it a a max. combined 31,
33 are usually req. for 6NT, with 4432 you may claim 32 is enough, but 31 is still below 32, and you are 4333.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[johnu]

On a double dummy basis, slam is not a good percentage. However, with 13 HCP and less than 4 clubs, 6NT is around 60%. With any number of clubs, somewhere in the mid 50% range.

The problem is whether you can get opener to accept slam with 13 HCP, and decline with 12 HCP. I don't think most partnerships can, so just sign off in 3NT. With only 12 HCP, 6NT is only around 40%. With 12 or 13 HCP, slam is a little less than 50%.

[nullve]

mw64ahw, on 2024-November-14, 23:33, said:

Not sure I can construct a hand which gives a 50% slam
Possibly

AKQ
K9x
xx
Jxxxx

Here is one:

Ax
KQxx
Kxx
xxxx

(Contract: 6♣)

[Cyberyeti]

mw64ahw, on 2024-November-14, 23:33, said:

Not sure I can construct a hand which gives a 50% slam let alone bid it so looking to play 3N.
Possibly

AKQ
K9x
xx
Jxxxx

Ax, KQxx, Kxx, Jxxx appears to be an excellent 6♣, AKx, Q9xxx, Kx, Jxx seems a cold 6N (the same hand with ♥8 instaed of Q is pretty minimum and a very decent slam), but I agree 3N is normal. If I had a 5 card major enquiry available, I might use it.

[DavidKok]

As a little fun aside, conditional on us having this hand partner's HCP distribution is:

• 10 HCP: 39%
  
• 11 HCP: 28%
  
• 12 HCP: 20%
  
• 13 HCP: 13%

As expected, the chances that partner is minimum (10-11) are much higher than the chances that partner is maximum (12-13). If you permit semibalanced hands to open 1NT the odds get even steeper as many 10-11 counts are not worth a 1-suit opening and are therefore more commonly folded into the 1NT opening compared to semibalanced 12-13 counts.

Of course at the table you won't know the exact odds, but keep in mind that when we have such a strong hand partner is even more likely to have a minimum for their bidding than normal.

[Cyberyeti]

DavidKok, on 2024-November-15, 05:25, said:

As a little fun aside, conditional on us having this hand partner's HCP distribution is:

• 10 HCP: 39%
  
• 11 HCP: 28%
  
• 12 HCP: 20%
  
• 13 HCP: 13%

As expected, the chances that partner is minimum (10-11) are much higher than the chances that partner is maximum (12-13). If you permit semibalanced hands to open 1NT the odds get even steeper as many 10-11 counts are not worth a 1-suit opening and are therefore more commonly folded into the 1NT opening compared to semibalanced 12-13 counts.

Of course at the table you won't know the exact odds, but keep in mind that when we have such a strong hand partner is even more likely to have a minimum for their bidding than normal.

Do you have simulations for expected number of tricks opposite these point counts in whatever is the best strain ? I would also say that very few 13 counts with a 6m would be opened 1N and this would bend the numbers once you get in to semi bal. Also need to know the policy on 5M.

[jillybean]

Haha, Mike's reaction was as expected. I think about slams whenever my partner or I open a hand.

Remember here, I am a brand new mini nt player and have only just started playing again with this partner, twice a month.

So, 1nt 4nt is still Quantitative, even over mini nt. Assuming 1nt 3♣ puppet, I may have discovered a 5card heart suit but still no room to probe for slam.

This was our auction, of course we are the only North in the room playing 3nt =5

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[DavidKok]

Cyberyeti, on 2024-November-15, 06:15, said:

Do you have simulations for expected number of tricks opposite these point counts in whatever is the best strain ? I would also say that very few 13 counts with a 6m would be opened 1N and this would bend the numbers once you get in to semi bal. Also need to know the policy on 5M.

For this quick simulation I included all 4333's, 4432's and 5332's in range. So no semibal or unbal hands, which would skew it further.

I don't have the slam percentage and think this is a classic example of a situation where double dummy odds should not be used. A good amount of these 28-31 HCP balanced-opposite-balanced slams rely on finding a queen or choosing which throwin or squeeze to play for. I expect the single dummy odds to be much, much worse than the double dummy odds.

If you are still interested I'd be happy to generate a little table of DD tricks versus opener's HCP, but I think it is of no educational value here.

[mycroft]

• 3NT. The chance you have slam is so small (at best, it's 31 HCP with "no fit"; double dummy that's better than average, but I don't play as well as DD) that it's not worth giving away information by looking the other 90% of the time. Your advantage (if you have one) is that they have a blind lead, and possibly the "wrong hand" is on lead, which means the chance that they can't find the killer lead without help is more valuable. Why take that away?
  
• Heh, "give them an easy one for once". That's IMP thinking if I ever saw it :-). One of my mantras: "when dummy comes down at matchpoints, the first job for declarer (and defence, but declarer's job is much easier) is to work out what the contract actually is." That makes these hands (and 1♠-AP, and 1NT-AP, and...) so interesting, and rarely easy! (and yes, I know MikeH knows this)
  
• I am a firm believer in "balanced hands bid NT", and quite a strong believer in "5M332 is balanced" (even though I don't play that in any of my regular partnerships). But if you're going to open one-suiter spade hands 1NT, you probably should be playing 3♣ "just-incase-you-have-5" Puppet Stayman (without the giveaway 3NT "no 4cM")... Sure, here you're the only ones in 3NT, for a top. It could very easily have been that 4♠+1 but 3NT only +1 too (or 4♠+2 on the lie, but 3NT+2), for a bottom!

[Cyberyeti]

mycroft, on 2024-November-15, 10:17, said:

[*]I am a firm believer in "balanced hands bid NT", and quite a strong believer in "5M332 is balanced" (even though I don't play that in any of my regular partnerships). But if you're going to open one-suiter spade hands 1NT, you probably should be playing 3♣ "just-incase-you-have-5" Puppet Stayman (without the giveaway 3NT "no 4cM")... Sure, here you're the only ones in 3NT, for a top. It could very easily have been that 4♠+1 but 3NT only +1 too (or 4♠+2 on the lie, but 3NT+2), for a bottom![/list]

I would play in hearts if partner has 5 hearts but play in NT if partner has spades

[jillybean]

Cyberyeti, on 2024-November-15, 11:14, said:

I would play in hearts if partner has 5 hearts but play in NT if partner has spades

How many hearts? (without looking at all hands)

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Is 4♣ a forward going cue in hearts? It's got to be!

[Cyberyeti]

jillybean, on 2024-November-15, 12:44, said:

How many hearts? (without looking at all hands)

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Is 4♣ a forward going cue in hearts? It's got to be!

I would invite slam by whatever method I had, likely 4♣ which has the advantage of denying a spade control which means partner doesn't get in any way excited with Qx, KQxxx, KQx, Jxx but nor do we play in 3N-1

[smerriman]

mycroft, on 2024-November-15, 10:17, said:

But if you're going to open one-suiter spade hands 1NT, you probably should be playing 3♣ "just-incase-you-have-5" Puppet Stayman (without the giveaway 3NT "no 4cM")... Sure, here you're the only ones in 3NT, for a top. It could very easily have been that 4♠+1 but 3NT only +1 too (or 4♠+2 on the lie, but 3NT+2), for a bottom![/list]

I'm a firm believer of not using Puppet with 4333. I ran a quick sim with North having any 5(332) with 10-13 HCP (assuming no upgrades), and 3NT scored better than 4♠ 78% of the time. A similar sim with 5 hearts was still 73%. Excluding 13 HCP hands under the assumption you'd upgrade them didn't have a major impact. Usual double dummy limitations blah blah.

[jillybean]

smerriman, on 2024-November-15, 16:47, said:

I'm a firm believer of not using Puppet with 4333. I ran a quick sim with North having any 5(332) with 10-13 HCP (assuming no upgrades), and 3NT scored better than 4♠ 78% of the time. A similar sim with 5 hearts was still 73%. Excluding 13 HCP hands under the assumption you'd upgrade them didn't have a major impact. Usual double dummy limitations blah blah.

Puppet provides responder with a lot of information about openers shape and may be the start of a slam probe. Perhaps only hands with some slam aspirations should use puppet here?

[johnu]

DavidKok, on 2024-November-15, 08:40, said:

I don't have the slam percentage and think this is a classic example of a situation where double dummy odds should not be used. A good amount of these 28-31 HCP balanced-opposite-balanced slams rely on finding a queen or choosing which throwin or squeeze to play for. I expect the single dummy odds to be much, much worse than the double dummy odds.

If not double dummy odds, then what???

In real life, defenders don't make perfect leads, they sometimes make bad/unfortunate opening leads. They may open up a frozen suit, expose partner's queen in a 2 way guess position, fail to lead a suit setting up a trick which allows declarer time to set up 12 tricks, etc. They may get pseudo squeezed, or discard poorly and expose partner to a squeeze.

Are double dummy odds accurate? As a gross evaluation, I think close enough. If the double dummy odds are 40%, and you need 50% to be a reasonable contract, then a reasonable interpretation is that the contract is not favorable. If the double dummy odds are 60%, then a reasonable interpretation is that the contract is favorable. If the double dummy odds are around 50%, then it's a tossup.

Richard Pavlicek did an analysis about the accuracy of double dummy simulations, and for 6 level contracts, the difference in success rates between actual play results and double dummy simulations was around one and a half percent (double dummy better). So not a big difference.

[johnu]

smerriman, on 2024-November-15, 16:47, said:

I'm a firm believer of not using Puppet with 4333. I ran a quick sim with North having any 5(332) with 10-13 HCP (assuming no upgrades), and 3NT scored better than 4♠ 78% of the time. A similar sim with 5 hearts was still 73%. Excluding 13 HCP hands under the assumption you'd upgrade them didn't have a major impact. Usual double dummy limitations blah blah.

Matchpoints or IMPs? In my simulations, NT was clearly better at matchpoints, but worse at IMPs.