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One for the road, Part II Play problem

#1 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2005-September-13, 02:25

With one exception, everyone who responded to the first thread is defending 5Sx or 6Sx. Justin and I have a play problem in 7Hx. Try it on the auction at the table:

Scoring: IMP

1 1 4 4
6 6 P P
7 Double


I was slightly worried when LHO bid 6 that it was making, so in such a long event I decided to take out insurance.

LHO doubles confidently and leads the king of clubs (asking for count) and you see that you all you have to do is pick up diamonds.

You muck around in the black suits for a bit, and discover that LHO has a heart void and the AK of clubs. You don't find out anything about the spade honours (RHO plays low when you try a spade from the dummy, but you can't have the king on the bidding, so all you can really deduce is that he probably doesn't have the AK). You also don't get any useful count information (LHO discards two spades on two trumps; RHO won't give club count when the void appears in dummy).

In true Bridgemaster fashion, when you cash a top diamond, an honour will drop from the relevant hand such that you have a choice of plays. Are they 2-2 all along? Or do you finesse on the second round?

(p.s: to anyone who was defending a spade contract: were you going to get your club ruff?)
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#2 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2005-September-13, 04:02

Looks like LHO has extra spade lenght and some clubs. Couple that to the heart void and he still has some space for a few diams. That makes his pard's bidding sensible: he has a diamond singleton and club side suit to compensate for his lack of high cards.

I'm going to cash diamond ace and finesse on the way back. I'll pay off to 7-0-1-5 shape but pick up LHOs (hopefully more likely) 6-0-3-4 shape. Yeah yeah I know people have freaks on this bidding. But lesser freak is still more likely than a greater freak. I hope... lol.
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#3 User is offline   badderzboy 

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Posted 2005-September-13, 04:04

We know Lefty is 5+ 0 1 2+ - 8 cards
and Righty 5- 2 1 2+ - 10 cards

now Lefty did'nt make a two suited overcall so I reckon he is more likely to be 6034 than 5035 or 6025 so I finesse West for the other honour and I suppose vacant spaces makes it more likely it's with West?

Steve

PS Be gentle just a BILlie :)
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#4 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2005-September-13, 04:25

badderzboy, on Sep 13 2005, 05:04 AM, said:

PS Be gentle just a BILlie :D

I don't think this is obvious at all. I spent a very long time thinking about it at the table (having 1870 points at stake concentrates the mind).

It really just depends on your reading of LHO's hand for the auction.

You might like to ask about the tempo of the 1S and 6S bids.
1S was slow; LHO definitely thought about doing something else.
Your 6H bid was slowish, but not massively so. 6S came immediately (no stop warnings because we were playing with screens).

You interrogate LHO about their 2-suited overcall style. 3C would have shown spades and clubs, at least 5-5, invitational or better but not forcing; better hands double first or may simply overcall in spades.

Having got this far, you get a time warning from the TD (it's the penultimate board of the set, and is the 3rd tricky slam, so things have not exactly been fast so far).
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#5 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2005-September-13, 08:11

I do not think 5035 is enough shape to justify a quick 6S bid. So I'll rule it out.

I'm going to play for either 6025 or 6016. With 6025 he probably would have bid 1 spade faster, and also with QJ tight of diamonds might have thought a bit more before saving. Then there is that restricted choice thingy. So my first thought is 6016. But what does that give righty? 4234 with maybe 1 spade honor? Is that really a clear 4S bid? Ahhhhhhhhhh. Ok back to the drawing board...

I guess I'm going to rule out 6016 as the 4S bidders hand doesnt make sense. but 6025...why was that a slow 1S bid...and a quick 6S on QJ tight of diamonds? I'm so confused...

Wait maybe he can be 5035 and inferred short diamonds with partner and was bidding to make?...

OK I'm rambling this is really tough though. Maybe he was 5026? But then it's really bad to bid 1S....

OK I'm going back to 6016 and assuming the 4S bidder was just making a very agressive bid. DK, diamond to the 9. But not with much confidence.
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#6 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2005-September-13, 08:15

I would rather play in than so i can discard a losing from dummy. I wouldn'tget any info, from the black suits except lead, and would play West fro singleton honnor.
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#7 User is online   hrothgar 

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Posted 2005-September-13, 08:16

Jlall, on Sep 13 2005, 05:11 PM, said:

OK I'm rambling this is really tough though. Maybe he was 5026? But then it's really bad to bid 1S....

The rambling is a GOOD thing...
Its very helpful to see the evolution of the thought process...
Alderaan delenda est
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#8 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2005-September-13, 08:25

stupid hand...still thinking about it. lol. I'm curious to see what happens, but I WILL say I'm very glad that I bid 7H. We have our shot at making it, and wont go down more than 1. They have a shot at making 6S, but wont go down more than 1 (unless diamonds are 2-2 and we manage to find our club ruff).
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#9 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2005-September-13, 08:38

I'm afraid fluffy's gone off in 7 on a heart lead.
I'll tell you my thought processes at the table later.

I've thought of something else since, however.

Is it right to determine your line based on whether 6S might make or not? At the time I didn't think so, I thought it was just straight out take the best line in 7Hx but now I'm not so sure. The calculations are complicated, but I wonder if we should bias our line to be more likely to go off if 6Sx is more likely to make (I know 6Sx is always beatable if 7H is makeable, but it may be hard to find the club ruff if that's necessary).

I dunno. More rambling, and I didn't even start to think about this at the table, I was so busy trying to work out LHO's shape....
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#10 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2005-September-13, 08:41

I considered that but I don't think so. It's too hard to say what will happen at the other table, and I think our main objective should just be to maximize our chances of making 7HX. I understand that if we play for 2-2 diamonds that means we make if they are 2-2, and if theyre 3-1 we have the added chance of our teammates making 6S whipped, but I just wanna make 7HX :) You never know, using this reasoning we may go down and they make 7H at the other table. Too hard to guess.
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#11 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2005-September-13, 08:47

Indeed. I'll tell you now that team-mates conceded 6Hx, so were quite pleasantly surprised to gain imps on the board!

I could have given the EW bidding problem instead (although the auction at the other table was slightly different), but then I couldn't have given you the play problem that caused me so much agony...
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#12 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2005-September-13, 09:15

I think that your 6 bid would telepgraph to an expert opp that you have a double fit, such that 6 would come easily to, for example, 5=0=3=5 with AKxxx void (xxx) AKJxx. Such a hand would certainly be bidding to make: partner rates to have a stiff and if not North may still lead a


This still gives RHO enough (in shape) to bid 4 over 4.

All other constructions seem more forced. We can give west other hands on which 6 would be bid quickly but the problem is reconciling those hands with east's 4 bid. The wilder West's shape, the more mundane is east's.
For example, with 6=0=1=6, east has 4=2=3=4 and few hcp (as I think Justin pointed out).

And the pause at the first bid makes sense with 5=0=3=5, since he may be consdering whether to risk an initially conservative 1 or to double and bid (most would want a better suit and a more one-suited hand) or to show both blacks immediately: if you think my example is too good for his 3, change it to AJxxx void (xxx) AKJxx.

SO I play West for 3.

BTW, if west bid 6 quickly with 2, more power to him: he would be a dangerous opp.
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#13 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2005-September-13, 09:28

he would not just have to have 2 diamonds, but also would need QJ tight. That is a scary holding to be bidding 6S with.

Anyways, not going to post on this anymore because I couldn't take it and asked Frances privately for the answer lol.
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#14 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2005-September-13, 09:51

As a side note I read that many of the top class players are shying away from making 2 suited overcalls and just making a simple overcall to give away less information.
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#15 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2005-September-14, 04:17

Scoring: IMP


Justin made it. I also started with the DK from dummy.
My thought processes finally came to the conclusion that diamonds were probably 2-2. If they weren't, I thought that LHO would have the singleton and in particular he wouldn't have QJ doubleton as that would make a really impressive 6S bid.

I also was a bit worried about LHO's shape. 5035 feels like a double or a 3C bid; I thought overall that spades were more likely to be 6-4 than 5-5, with the A & K split. That makes LHO 6025 which is consistent with overcalling 1S but thinking of making a 2-suited overcall, and RHO 4225.

In practice as soon as RHO has Axxx or Kxxx in spades he'll bid 4S over 4D; he doesn't really need much in the way of shape or other high cards. I don't think I need to worry about how "extreme" or otherwise his shape is, I'm more concerned about LHO.

So 6025 looked quite likely. I also vaguely wondered about 7015 or 7024, with RHO having AKx of trumps - AKx xx Qx(x) J10xxx(x) is probably just about a 4S bid, and gives LHO a dodgy 1S overcall (thinking of pre-empting) but a clearer 6S bid.

How about 6034? That's certainly a 1S bid, but I think 6S is much less likely looking at Hxx in diamonds and the AK of clubs. Yes, you are likely to have a diamond fit for the 6H call, but it doesn't have to be a 9-card fit (couldn't you have had - AK10xxxx Kxx Qxx ?). He must have had hopes for 2/3 of the minor suit honours to score, and 6S looks more marginal with less shape. Certainly, I don't think that 6034 with Qxx diamonds is likely, though Jxx is possibly so.

After all of this, I think I decided that diamonds were probably 2-2. But if they weren't, I fancied LHO to have bid 6S off a 6016 or 7015 rather than 6034 or 5035.
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#16 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2005-September-14, 07:12

Restricted choice is so strong that you won't normally want to play against it just for assuring some score if the other table plays X, when you have 9 trumps and have to decide between finese or drop it is very different.
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