[mikeh]

mike777, on Sep 16 2005, 03:31 PM, said:

mikeh, on Sep 16 2005, 02:35 PM, said:

Pass... frankly, this is a non-problem. Bidding is a mastermind decision.

BTW how would you bid if you held Axx Kxxx KQJxx x after a similar start?

And the hands were


       x
       AQJxxx
       Axx
       xxx
 KQxxx     Jxxx
 xx           x
 xx          xxx
 AQxx      KJxxx

Would 4N be two suited takeout or keycard?

Must admit I would have just blasted to 6h with that example hand.
13-2+1
13 total tricks, estimated minus 2=combined 2 shortest suits, plus one=estimated 24 working hcp.

Feel much more comfortable with my guess on this one then my choice over 4s on originial post:).

So you blast to 6♥? what if partner lacks a minor Ace?

I appreciate that the FTL book can be a useful aide, but rigid numerical rules afford no guarantee of precise bidding

[mike777]

[quote name='mikeh' date='Sep 16 2005, 03:41 PM'] [quote name='mike777' date='Sep 16 2005, 03:31 PM'][quote name='mikeh' date='Sep 16 2005, 02:35 PM'] ACE]x
] KJxxx

Ace?

I appreciate that the FTL book can be a useful aide, but rigid numerical rules afford no guarantee of precise bidding [/QUOTE][/quote]


Excellent point. I try to always emphasize in my posts that FTL is a guess or estimate based on my level of experience, your mileage may differ.

Hopefully any usage of the terms precise or guarantee is dropped .

On this one I am guessing p has A of clubs and not KQ of clubs. I do not have 4nt for blackwood.

[han]

mikeh, on Sep 16 2005, 03:38 PM, said:

Thus so far no-one seemed to doubt that 4N was takeout, because, with this hand, it could be nothing else.

What????

No I don't think that 4NT is takeout because it fits the hand given, I think that 4NT is takeout because I am sure that all of my regular partners would correctly interpret it as takeout and because I have explicitely discussed this sequence with several of those partners.

Perhaps I misunderstood your comment.

[mikeh]

Nothin personal, Hannie I do not doubt, for a moment, that the majority of posters (including you) bid 4N because to them it is clear that 4N is always takeout on this auction. My comments were intended to address a persistent aspect of this and similar forums. Some posters assume that bids mean what they want them to mean: that is, I am willing to bet that some readers/posters 'agree' with 4N as takeout on this post because they 'need' it to be takeout on the given hand and that those same posters (not you ) might, 6 months from now, on a different post, approve of 4N as keycard because they 'need' it to be keycard when I post Axx Kxxx KQJxx x on the same auction.

Have you not noticed the same tendency in (a minority) of posts on this forum?

Maybe I am just too cynical.

[adhoc3]

Al_U_Card, on Sep 16 2005, 01:41 PM, said:

uhhh, gun, pills or a rope? (=dbl,pass or a 4NT) name your poison....   .

All nice comments, but I love this the most.

The more you strugle the deeper you'll be traped.

Personally, I would score "PASS" the TOP, and 4NT "BOTTOM". I will follow the saying: "when you are fixed, stay fixed."

Both hand in real (never important, but for curiosity only:))))

♠x ♥AKxxxx ♦xx ♣AKxx
♠Q ♥Qx ♦QJxxx ♣QJTxx

4♠ Making
5♠ Making, Doubled
Any 5 of your own down.

[Fluffy]

Pass, and 4NT would be just blackwood to me.

[Blofeld]

I'm another passer.

To me 4NT would also be takeout, but I wouldn't be certain that it was both minors. Could it not be one long minor and some heart support, looking to play in one of those two suits?

The problem with that is it would deny you the strong route to 5♥, if partner bid 5♦ over 4NT.

[Fluffy]

2 suiters just don't do good against 1 suiters, I learned that the hard way, but won't forget that lesson , but maybe this is another question on style, since 2♥ promises 6 cards to me (unless very strong), and others don't play this way.

[jdeegan]

With regard to the original question, I think it is worth counting the opponents' potential tricks in four spades. Oddly enough, my soft holdings in the minors look good for defense because (barring a real freak) it means they have only four potential tricks in the minors (AK and AK), and partner figures to cover at least one of those as well as the heart suit.

This means that to make four spades, they would probably have to score seven (possibly eight) spade tricks. Lots of ways for this to happen (if they are 5-5 in spades and there is a 4-2 or 3-1 holding in a side suit), but I think more where it isn't so.

Against this are our iffy prospects with a five level save. Bidding on does not make sense to me. Partner does, after all, have another bid.

[han]

mikeh, on Sep 16 2005, 05:55 PM, said:

Nothin personal, Hannie   I do not doubt, for a moment, that the majority of posters (including you) bid 4N because to them it is clear that 4N is always takeout on this auction. My comments were intended to address a persistent aspect of this and similar forums. Some posters assume that bids mean what they want them to mean: that is, I am willing to bet that some readers/posters 'agree' with 4N as takeout on this post because they 'need' it to be takeout on the given hand and that those same posters (not you ) might, 6 months from now, on a different post, approve of 4N as keycard because they 'need' it to be keycard when I post Axx Kxxx KQJxx x on the same auction.

Have you not noticed the same tendency in (a minority) of posts on this forum?

Maybe I am just too cynical.

I didn't take it personally, don't worry, but I was quite surprised when I read your remark. Perhaps my reaction was stronger than it should have been.

Regarding your question, I haven't noticed this tendency, maybe I'm not cynical enough . I do notice a fairly large group of people who think that they know "the answer" to difficult bridge questions (an interesting phenomenon) but that is a different issue. Just to be clear, I don't think that you are one of those people.

[Impact]

1. On the original hand, You have at least a likely 6-2 H fit and a probable 5-3+ fit in a minor.

2. You have no defence in terms of quick tricks - in fact zero controls.

3. If the opponents' bidding is an accurate reflection of their hands they have at least 9 trumps and if they also possess some distribution eg a singleton in each hand, there is every reason to suggest that 4S will be cold - and possibly more.

4. At the stipulated favourable vulnerability you are more likely than not to gain imps by bidding (it may make eg 2-6 (41) or provide a godd save or they may get to the 5 level going down.

5. if 4NT is t/o it is not a bad bid (by contrast a double "for takeout" at this level should stipulate some defensive values - not necessarily trumps).

6. THe strong hand given as the alternative to the weak 55: Axx Kxxx KQJxx x

is an excellent example of a high-level fit-showing jump eg opposite the perfecto of x Axxxxx Axx Axx or similar a grand is possible and with additional length in D and say slightly better H, he may wish to take the push over 6S anyway...

[P_Marlowe]

Pass, wtp ?

With kind regards
Marlowe