[sceptic]

Scoring: IMP

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West North East South

 -     -     1♠    Pass
 2♣    Pass  2♠    Pass
 4♠    Pass  4NT   Pass
 5♥    Pass  6♠    Pass
 Pass  Pass  

Playing precision can you tell me what you think of this and how it should be bid

[hrothgar]

sceptic, on Oct 23 2006, 01:30 AM, said:

Scoring: IMP

---

West North East South

- - 1♠ Pass
2♣ Pass 2♠ Pass
4♠ Pass 4NT Pass
5♥ Pass 6♠ Pass
Pass Pass

Playing precision can you tell me what you think of this and how it should be bid

There are a LOT of different flavor's of Precision with different ideas about minimum strength for a strong club opening, asking bids etc.

I'd expect this to start with a strong club.

Many people will be forced to respond 2♣ after the opening. (Some might consider responding 1NT)

[sfbp]

1S - 2C
3S - 4NT
5H - 6S

No, i am a purist, I don't need to bid 1C on this hand. Plenty of expressive power to bid jump shift or jump rebid at the top of the 1S range, without getting into asking bids or anything else.

[hrothgar]

sfbp, on Oct 23 2006, 03:05 AM, said:

1S - 2C
3S - 4NT
5H - 6S

No, i am a purist, I don't need to bid 1C on this hand. Plenty of expressive power to bid jump shift or jump rebid at the top of the 1S range, without getting into asking bids or anything else.

Does 2♣ establish a GF?

If so, the 3♠ rebid would seem to overstate the quality of the Spade suit...

4♦ cue also seems safer tham blasting directly into Blackwood and abandoning an entire level of bidding space

[sfbp]

My related agreements are:
1. 2/1 is *not* GF
2. 2/1 does *not* promise another bid by responder
3. rebid of opener's major (or for that matter minor) *does* promise 6
4. 2NT rebid by opener does *not* promise extras
5. responder will never do 2/1 with a 4-card suit

ie its about 100% natural with no assumptions except max 15 HCP for opener, and about the same for responder (since he has SJS on most hands stronger than that) - mind you SJS is not to be used randomly

What we do is to put a lot of emphasis on 1NT forcing, it's a catchall. This seems to work pretty well with limited opener - when pd doesnt know what to do (and a few cases besides, lol) he bids 1NT.

[the hog]

Wayne, I dislike the auction you have shown. The slam is not great, requiring a 3-3 H split or a 3-3 S split. Your auction also suggests good Cs and a S fit - you have neither. Also, what right does opener have to fire up Old Balck? He has already limited his hand and pd has said that 4S is the hand's limit? (I would say he has oversated the hand's S suit). Further, there is NO D control. Blackwood may not help here at all. Probably the 4NT bid was prompted by the posession of the C A opposite a supposedly good C suit!

Try:
1S 2C
2S 3D
3N

I don't like Sephen's bid of 3S above. This should show a far better S suit, say KQJ to 6 or similar.

[sfbp]

1 out of 2 3-3 splits seems like decent odds?

"Far better" we are arguing about the J? Life's not perfect, i think this hand is way too good for 2S, we do a lot of passing of "strong" bids.

I agree that blackwood is not preferred - but here it does look like what responder wants to know.

[HeartA]

The_Hog, on Oct 22 2006, 09:46 PM, said:

Try:
1S 2C
2S 3D
3N

I would like an even simpler action:

1S - 2C
2S - 3N.

[the hog]

""Far better" we are arguing about the J? "

Yes Stephen, I am, or say a holding of KQT9xx at the least. The point is that responder should KNOW that 1 hon in his hand will make the suit solid. And KQJ IS FAR better than KQ to 6.

Wayne. I know you don't play 2/1 gf but you might want to consider adding the following to your system:
1S 2m
2S 2NT GF

As I stated in a previous post; if one hand has shown a 6 card suit, it is rarely right to play 2NT. You're unlikely to make EXACTLY 8 tricks, thefore the 2NT bid is a valuable pivot. Many Polish non 2/1 GF systems are constructed in this way eg Strefa and Nasz to name 2 related ones.
The 2NT pivot allows very useful contract exploration at a comparatively low level. Try it! I'm sure you'll like it.

[sfbp]

The_Hog, on Oct 22 2006, 08:37 PM, said:

""Far better" we are arguing about the J? "

Yes Stephen, I am, or say a holding of KQT9xx at the least. The point is that responder should KNOW that 1 hon in his hand will make the suit solid. And KQJ IS FAR better than KQ to 6.

You're going to miss a lot of games just to avoid getting to what is not that bad a slam. The amount of extra structure to ensure that 10 or J is not worth it IMHO. Precision is a simple system on auctions like this.... in fact it's usually simple.

I agree totally that the suit quality should be better. But opposite singleton J the suit is still pretty decent. And opposite any TWO spades, this hand makes game in spades on a wide variety.

[HeartA]

I agree with Hog and don't like 3S either.

[sceptic]

hi me again

I opened 1 spade then the 2/1 is a force to 2NT, this is why I bid 2 spades, I assumed 3 spades was passable

I am also curious aboout the 2 club bid, does suit quality come into it, or should you bid the hand exactly as it fits your system


The 4 spade jump made me bid 4NT maybe not the best ,I thought my hand was worth an ask and 4NT seemed the easiest way to stop at the 5 level, but I am only in week three of learing precision, I have a long way to go and the precision I am learning is not one I will deviate from, I am just curious what others have to say and evaluating the hand to the available bids interests me

[gwnn]

In Andrei Sharko's Symmetric Relay (which is a member of a very extended "Precision" family):

1♠-1NT(GF)
3♣(any 6322)-3♦ ®
4♥(6322 max, 5 controls)
Now relayer knows Kxxxxx Axx xx Ax and also for a "maximum", he should have 2 queens or at least a Q and 2 J's. Unfortunately scanning may not make sure you can find out which of these is true (opener already knows 4♠ will be replied by a 5♦ bid by p). I guess the safest bet here is 4NT (signoff) by relayer, a probable of 5 spade tricks, 2 or 3 d's (depending on opener's Q of ♦) and 2 or 3 ♥'s and a ♣. This seems to be a hand which just doesn't suit this pattern. Note that 4NT is a fine contract. If a suit doesn't divide 3-3, the probability of another breaking 3-3 is less the usual 36%.

edit: note that if East opens with 1♣, he will have his pd's hand after only asking controls and then he can make an educated choice between game and slam. The bidding would go
1♣-1♥
1♠-2♣
2♦-2♥
2♠-2NT
3♣-3♦
3♥-4♥

And now East knows about 1435 distribution with 6 controls. The only question is about which King his pd lacks.

4♠-4NT

This denies A/K of♣. Now East knows his pd's exact hand (give or take a Q/J) and should probably just go for slam without further asking, especially as pd could have Q of♦ or some juicy card like that. Opening 1♣ is a bit better maybe because of the potential difficulty of scanning through his Queens.

note2: sorry if u weren't interested in the Relay version.

[sfbp]

gwnn, on Oct 23 2006, 04:19 AM, said:

If a suit doesn't divide 3-3, the probability of another breaking 3-3 is less the usual 36%.

Why so? I noticed many moons ago that if you have a suit with 6 cards missing, the chance of it being divided 3-3 appears to be *higher* when the other suits break badly. I'm not sure you are right.

Even if you are right and some adjustment is needed, how far wrong is your number? I would guesstimate in excess of 60%, even if not 72%. I like this slam.

<edit>
Whoops Ben is right, some of the hands where both suits are 3-3 were included in the first lot. And hands where trumps are not 3-3 or 4-2 dont make at all regardless of the state of the other suit
<end edit>

[inquiry]

sfbp, on Oct 23 2006, 10:16 AM, said:

gwnn, on Oct 23 2006, 04:19 AM, said:

If a suit doesn't divide 3-3, the probability of another breaking 3-3 is less the usual 36%.

Why so? I noticed many moons ago that if you have a suit with 6 cards missing, the chance of it being divided 3-3 appears to be *higher* when the other suits break badly. I'm not sure you are right.

Even if you are right and some adjustment is needed, how far wrong is your number? I would guesstimate in excess of 60%, even if not 72%. I like this slam.

The odds do change, but not as poorly as gwn thinks.. lets look.. at it..

Quote

If a suit doesn't divide 3-3, the probability of another breaking 3-3 is less the usual 36%.

If we know nothing of opponents shape, the chances for a 3-3 split is 35.58.

So if we look at 4♠ here, 35.58% of the time, no ♠ loser due to 3-3 ♠. Gwn correctly points out that if a side 6 card suit doesn't break 3-3, the odds the other 3-3 suit will not split 3-3 changes. In fact, if spades proved to be 6-0, the odds of a 3-3 ♥ split is reduced to 25.83, and if spades were 5-1, the odds are hearts willl split 3-3 ♥ is only 31.79.

But, and this is interesting, if spades split 4-2, it is MORE LIKELY that hearts will split 3-3. With unknown info about one major, the odds the other is 3-3 is 35.58, if one of the majors is 4-2, the odds the other is 3-3 GOES UP to 35.76 (nearly 0.2% higher). If one major is 3-3, the odds the other is 3-3 is even higher (37.15%).

[hrothgar]

sfbp, on Oct 23 2006, 06:16 PM, said:

gwnn, on Oct 23 2006, 04:19 AM, said:

If a suit doesn't divide 3-3, the probability of another breaking 3-3 is less the usual 36%.

Why so? I noticed many moons ago that if you have a suit with 6 cards missing, the chance of it being divided 3-3 appears to be *higher* when the other suits break badly. I'm not sure you are right.

Say what ???!!!

I'm kinda busy today and don't have time to do a complete covariance analysis, however, you got this ass backwards. The odds that Spades break 3-3 are positive correlated with a 3-3 club break.

Here's a very quick and dirty dealer script that i used for a monte carlo simulation.

predeal north SKQ8742, HAQ3, D98, CA9
south SA, HK952, DAK3, C86432

action

frequency "Spade split" (spades(east),0,7),
frequency "Club split" (clubs(east),0,7),
average "Both" spades(east) == 3 and clubs(east) == 3,
average "Slam makes" spades(east) == 3 or clubs(east) == 3

I'll provide the output at the close of this posting. However, here's the important results.

The percentage chance that Spades break 3-3 is 35.52269%
The percentage chance that Clubs break 3-3 is 35.51685%

Assume for the moment, that the Spade break and the Club break are independent of one another. In this case, the percentage chance that Clubs break 3-3 and Spades break 3-3 = .3552269 * .3551685 = .12617

If we look at the results of the monte carlo, the percentage chance that Spades split 3-3 and clubs split 3-3 = .131936

Its very unlikely that the two events are independent. (you have enough information to work out a confidence interval). Furthermore, there is a positive corrleation between Clubs behaving and Spades behaving.

For anyone interested, the percentage chance that Spades or Clubs breaks 3-3 is (roughly) .57846


Frequency Spade split:
0 73890
1 727891
2 2422303
3 3552269
4 2422608
5 726370
6 74669
7 0
Frequency Club split:
0 74586
1 726713
2 2424035
3 3551685
4 2420764
5 727404
6 74813
7 0
Both: 0.131936
Slam makes: 0.57846
Generated 10000000 hands
Produced 10000000 hands
Initial random seed 1161618644
Time needed 12.28 sec

[inquiry]

Richards number assumes either 3 card suit splits it makes, but 5-1 spades will sink slam with two spade losers.

The odds of making is 58.62% (3-3 sades, or 4-2 spades with 3-3 hearts.....

3-3 spades, 35.58, 4-2 spades and 3-3 hearts 35.76% of the remaining 64.42 = another 23%, so a total of 58.62...

[keylime]

I'd be proud to open East's hand 1C with five controls, a six card suit, and nice sitting values.

1C - 2C* (natural, G/F)
2S - 3H (NOT 2NT - don't lie about your shape)
3S - 4D (forward going to 4NT)
4H (cuebid) - 4S
4NT (where are we going pard?) - 5NT (pick your slam)
6S

Playing KLPV16 Phoenix:

1C - 1H (spades, clubs, or 15+ balanced)
1S (can be on 3 spades) - 2C (natural)
2S - 3H
3S - 4D (start of Turbo style bidding)
4H - 4NT (even keycards)
5NT - 6S

Ultra:

1C - 1H (spades or clubs)
2S* (CAB in spades) - 2NT (0-1 cards in spades)
3S* (repeat CAB) - 4S (six controls)
4NT (Baron style, slam going) - 5C
5S - 6H
6S swish

[the hog]

Sorry Dwayne, I would not be proud if any system I played repeatedly found this slam.

[keylime]

Ron,

Admittedly, this is of the low percentage variety; if the hands held 10-11 controls collectively then I would not have much quarrel with 4♠ making six on my scoresheet.

However, I'm staring at all the controls. It would be very hard for me to resist not being at six, and if I held KQJxxx in seven on this layout in certain circumstances.

With needing hearts 3-3 OR trumps 3-3 if I did my math roughly it's just under 60% (on rough calc I have somewhere between 56 and 59), so it's a reasonable one to be in I feel.