[brianshark]

Scoring: IMP

You open in 4th seat:

2♣ - 3♣
4♣ - 4♦
4♥ - 5♣
6♣

Lead ♦Q

What is the best play for the 12th trick?

---

[FrancesHinden]

Just to make life more interesting, I had to play 6C (on roughly this auction) on the lead of the jack of spades.

Now you need to know that your spade holding in hand is A97.

Plan the play on this lead instead.

p.s. Forrester was declarer at the other table in our match, and I know how he played it on a diamond lead, but I'll wait for a few other answers first. I'm not sure I would have taken the same line, which probably means I'm wrong and he's right.

[dburn]

More information required. How are clubs divided? Assuming 2-1, then: two trumps; ♥A; ♦K for a spade pitch; trump to dummy; heart to the jack. If West wins, try the queen on his (forced) spade shift and if East covers, play hearts from the top. If trumps are 3-0, cash ♥A and ♦K before drawing trumps ending in dummy and playing as above. Seems as though this should be about 85%.

[FrancesHinden]

Clubs are 2-1, LHO has the doubleton.

[brianshark]

I can't find my hand record, hence was missing the spots. Fixed now.

[FrancesHinden]

On a diamond lead, it seems clear to start by drawing trumps (2-1), cashing both diamonds discarding a spade and playing on hearts. To play on hearts we either cash one top honour then finesse the Jack, or cash both top honours then lead towards the jack, (or finesse twice, considered later).

If East has the Queen of hearts, or there is any 3-3 heart break, or East has 10x, or West has singleton Q both lines work

One top heart beats two top hearts when West has Q10xx and the SK (half of 6 of the 4-2 heart breaks)
Two top hearts beats one top heart when West has Qx and not the SK (half of 4 of the 4-2 heart breaks)

One top heart also has the residual chance that East has KJ10 of spades and 4 hearts to the 10. After Heart, club to dummy, heart finesse, spade-queen-king-ace we run trumps. If East is squeezed in the majors it will show itself up. So this is a better line.

So overall, we make unless West has Qx of hearts and not the SK, or 4+ hearts with both honours and not the SK (ignoring the KJ10 of spades possibility as minuscule). I make this a bit closer to 90% than 85% but I probably can't add up.

A third possible line is to take two heart finesses (ace of hearts, heart to the 9, then heart to the jack). If trumps are 3-0 we don't quite have the entries for this unless we cash the ace of hearts before the last trump. Including the elimination possibilities, this is simpler, it makes unless LHO has both heart honours and not the SK, with is about 87% so fractionally worse. But very close.

That makes dburn's line the winner, I believe (and better than Forrester's selection at the table which was two top hearts).

Now someone will correct my addition or my case-counting.

I'll tell you how I played it on the SJ lead, and you can tell me that was wrong.
I decided that no-one would lead from KJ10 of spades into a 2C opening when dummy had not cued the suit.

I ducked the opening lead completely, won the diamond switch, drew trumps in two rounds, discarded a heart on the second diamond and played A, K and a heart ruff. If that didn't work, I was then going to squeeze East in the majors. If the H10 appeared from East on the second round I would have a nasty guess. (I'm not saying if this line actually worked or not yet)

My alternative line, which I rejected, was to cover the SJ with the Queen, try and set up hearts and if that failed play East for the S8 by playing low to the 7. I eventually decided that West might not lead a spade from J10 without the 8 as it's quite a dangerous lead.

[dburn]

FrancesHinden, on Aug 18 2008, 07:38 AM, said:

Clubs are 2-1, LHO has the doubleton.

In that case, the line I suggested will work unless East has ♠K and West has ♥Q10 to four or more hearts, or ♥Qx. Closer examination reveals that this is about an 88% chance of success (fractionally more if East would have doubled with a heart void, but after this kind of auction East might not realise that he is not on lead).

Alternatives worthy of consideration are:

simply play for three heart tricks by cashing ace and king before leading to the jack (about 84%);

pitch a heart on the second diamond, then play ♥AK and ruff a heart (even if East drops the ten on the second round), falling back on a spade to the queen if hearts do not produce three tricks (about 86%);

something else I haven't thought of yet.

Alternatives unworthy of consideration are: take two heart finesses; play a spade to the queen and if this fails, a heart to the jack. These are both around 78%.

Complicated hand. On the jack of spades lead you should probably cover, then later pitch a spade on the second diamond before trying first a spade to the seven, then a heart to the jack.

[david_c]

dburn, on Aug 18 2008, 03:22 PM, said:

pitch a heart on the second diamond, then play ♥AK and ruff a heart (even if East drops the ten on the second round), falling back on a spade to the queen if hearts do not produce three tricks (about 86%);

I think if you take this line you should be cashing the top hearts before the second diamond, as you may find LHO has a singleton heart.

This was the line I was going to go for, but I think I agree that your original suggestion is marginally better.

[Edit: Actually, maybe not, it seems to be extremely close.]

[brianshark]

If the ♥T drops, why don't you just run the ♥J and pitch a ♠. Later pitch the other ♠ on the ♥9.

[david_c]

brianshark, on Aug 18 2008, 03:38 PM, said:

If the T drops, why don't you just run the J and pitch a ♠. Later pitch the other ♠ on the ♥9.

Oh, yeah, I didn't even look at that part of what I was quoting! Of course you do that.

[dburn]

brianshark, on Aug 18 2008, 09:38 AM, said:

If the ♥T drops, why don't you just run the ♥J and pitch a ♠. Later pitch the other ♠ on the ♥9.

Very good idea.

[gnasher]

I opened 1♣, showing clubs, balanced or any 2C-opener. The hopeless imprecision of this opening induced LHO to bid 3♦, but we struggled into 6♣ anyway and he led a diamond.

The overcall probably makes it better to cash two top hearts than to take a second-round heart finesse. That's what I did, after keeping everyone waiting for five minutes whilst I tried to find a better line. Is there one?

[brianshark]

At the table, I played a spade to the Q first, later discarded heart on diamond and then cashed AK and ruffed a heart.

I ran the hand by a few friends on the Irish team that made the B-final, telling them my line and we chatted about potential improvements. I think the best line is:

- Draw trump
- Cash Heart A and K (assume both follow small)
- Discard Heart on Diamond and ruff a Heart
- Fall back on the Spade to the Q if nothing else works

This line fails if the ♠K is offside and RHO has exactly ♥QTxx or LHO has ♥QTxx(+)

Put another way, the line succeeds if ♥s are 3-3, any ♥ honour is doubleton or singleton, RHO has 5+ hearts or LHO has the spade K.

Unless I'm mistaken, the only layout it fails where another line can succeed is with exactly QTxx on your right (and the ♠K also on your right).

[brianshark]

In Francis's situation, it seems that she has to try the ♠Q before touching ♥s which, assuming it doesn't work, means she can't play for cashing top two hearts and then small to the J, nor will picking up the ♥T singleton or doubleton help her (unless there's a ruffing finesse situation). So I guess it's between cashing AK and ruffing a ♥, or cashing A and then finessing ♥ or leading a ♠ to the 7, or a ♠ to the 9.

I guess best chance is to pitch a ♥, cash two top ♥s, unless the T was singleton on your right, ruff a ♥, and if the Q doesn't drop, fall back to playing a ♠ to the 7 (which seems better than ♠ to the 9 given the lead).

[FrancesHinden]

brianshark, on Aug 18 2008, 06:47 PM, said:

Put another way, the line succeeds if ♥s are 3-3, any ♥ honour is doubleton or singleton, RHO has 5+ hearts or LHO has the spade K.

Unless I'm mistaken, the only layout it fails where another line can succeed is with exactly QTxx on your right (and the ♠K also on your right).

This is correct (I think).
However, as I said above, there are 6 cases of exactly QTxx on your right.

Compared to cashing one top heart, discarding a spade, then taking a heart finesse, your suggested line succeeds where this line fails when there is precisely Qx on your left (not including Q10 doubleton). There are only 4 cases of that holding.

Therefore, your line is 2 cases worse than dburn's line. Plus the tiny chance of RHO having Q10xx hearts and KJ10 of spades.

[dburn]

brianshark, on Aug 18 2008, 12:47 PM, said:

Unless I'm mistaken, the only layout it fails where another line can succeed is with exactly QTxx on your right (and the ♠K also on your right).

How will you make it if East has five or six hearts to the Q10?

[dburn]

dburn, on Aug 18 2008, 01:10 PM, said:

brianshark, on Aug 18 2008, 12:47 PM, said:

Unless I'm mistaken, the only layout it fails where another line can succeed is with exactly QTxx on your right (and the ♠K also on your right).

How will you make it if East has five or six hearts to the Q10?

To answer my own question (apologies for premature pushing of the Add Reply button), you might adopt one of two lines:

If West has ♠K, lead a spade towards the queen.

If East has ♠K, ruff the third heart, cross to a trump and play the fourth heart discarding a spade from dummy.

Other things being equal, one would adopt the first line (if East has long hearts, West is more likely to have ♠K). But in the case where West has bid 3♦ over a 1♣ opening, and shown up with two trumps to East's one, the second line is better (and of course also succeeds when East has ♥Q10xx and ♠K).

[cherdano]

dburn, on Aug 18 2008, 12:10 PM, said:

brianshark, on Aug 18 2008, 12:47 PM, said:

Unless I'm mistaken, the only layout it fails where another line can succeed is with exactly QTxx on your right (and the ♠K also on your right).

How will you make it if East has five or six hearts to the Q10?

Cash two hearts before deciding what to pitch on the diamond?

[hatchett]

Quote

Cash two hearts before deciding what to pitch on the diamond?

That would have been my choice. I was trying to figure out what I had missed in dburn's learned analysis when he was answering his own question.

[sheepman]

Erm...6♣?

How about 2♣-3♣-4N-6♣-7♣. 4N Natural, 6♣ to play, apart from across the table where 4N was Keycard and 6♣ was odd+void, oops.

Best I could come up with now was 2 diamonds, throwing a spade, draw trumps, 2 major suit aces, run trumps and see lots of pointed things being thrown. This better than a double heart hook?