TimG, on Aug 27 2008, 12:16 PM, said:
jdonn, on Aug 26 2008, 07:57 PM, said:
If it went 1NT P to me, and I had to choose between signing off or bidding game, i would sign off.
A simple double dummy simulation:
predeal north SJT954, HKJ842, CT64
south_shape_ok=shape(south, any 4432 + any 4333 + any 5332 - 5xxx -x5xx)
south_HCP_ok=hcp(south)<18 && hcp(south)>14
south_ok=south_shape_ok && south_HCP_ok
condition south_ok
suggests that 4M makes over 50% of the time (and that it doesn't matter whether opener or responder declares the hand).
Bump the NT bid to 16-18 and it goes to over 60%. But, I did not take into account the opening bid so cannot make any statement about how that affects things.
Some comments:
1) For an overcall I think most people would overcall almost all 18s and would not overcall with a lot of 15s, but I understand that 15 is far more likely to come up than 18 so maybe 15 is still more likely. Anyways, I think that 15-17 is not a good range for an overcall.
2) Your simulation probably includes a lot of hands that are takeout doubles of 1C which will favor the likelihood of 4M being cold. For instance I think few specifically 4432 hands would overcall 1N.
3) I think the opening 1C bid on your left and the diamond bid on your right will definitely increase your chances of making 4M. Any spade and club finesses will likely be on, and the likelihood of massive diamond wastage with partner is probably decreased.
4) It is true that you can still back into game sometimes by bidding 2S, with 4 spades and a nice looking hand partner will raise to 3S, and sometimes someone will bid 3D and when you bid 3H partner can bid 4H with 4 hearts and a nice looking hand. I guess this is the main argument for people who just bid 2S despite the high likelihood of a game making. I still think that there is too high of a chance to miss a vul game to go for this plan.
Help
I had posted that if 1NT was opened I consider the hand closer to a signoff than a gf (as opposed to that I would gf on the actual auction), and that's what he was testing.
