[mtvesuvius]

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Your call over 3♠? Scoring is BAM.

[l milne]

4♦ and probably passing next.

[Cascade]

Pass. Over a preemptive raise I am not sure that this is what partner will expect and if not there are too many ways for him to go wrong.

[Fluffy]

Stiff ♣K makes ODR a bit random, west has to take a decision, and he knows partner's hand pretty well. 4♦ will just help him even more, and I don't think we should sacrifice before he makes his (maybe wrong) decision. So I'd just pass.

[dake50]

I call my 8-suit trumps. 5D.

[mich-b]

4♦. If they bid 4♠ partner will look at his ♠s and ♦s , and will have a good chance of getting the decision right.

[gwnn]

I'd play NLM here but I like 5♦ either way. I think I'm a little too loose here though and it could be that 4♦ is the best compromise.

[mike gill]

I think I would pass as the least of evils. I'm not sure I could do that in tempo though.

Why I don't like 4♦:
Unless it goes all pass (yeah right) I'm going to feel bad in some way or another. If partner raises to 5 freely, I'm going to be sad since I just don't think we're going to make it, and we might have been beating 3♠ or making 4♦ for a plus. If they bid 4♠ and partner hits it, I'm going to worry - he probably has shortness in diamonds and thinks we have the ace or an entry for a ruff. Or you know, any defensive tricks at all. He might just have some scattered HCP, who knows. Yeah he might have AQT of spades and our bidding anything lets him hit it but that seems unlikely. If partner doesn't hit it, I will think I haven't done enough and want to bid 5♦ - I certainly haven't shown an 8-bagger and little defense. Either way I feel like I have a guess. Not to mention that we might have pushed them into a making 4♠ - it easily could be right from their perspective to pass 3♠ since they have a comfortable 140-170 coming but when faced with the prospect of defending a white 4♦ they take the push and hope it was making (or that we save at favorable) since +50/-130 probably won't win the board.

Why I don't like 5♦: We are unlikely to make 5♦ since we have an awful lot of losers (and they're essentially all keycards), so that horse is dead. Thus we are essentially betting that 1) they would have bid 4♠ and make it AND 2) the other table will bid 4♠ and make it, or that partner has enough to make 5♦ only -1 (or -2 if they fail to double) against their 140. Also it's possible (although unlikely) that the other table is buying it in 4 which is another way to lose. I do like this better than 4 because they might misjudge and bid 5/5 or fail to double us when they should.

Pass has a couple of ways to win:
1) Partner with e.g. Axx spades and a maximum pass might back in with a double when it's our hand (if we can pass in tempo)
2) We might go -140/-170 when bidding 4♦ would have led to -620 or -300.
3) If they bid 4♠ on their own, now we can sacrifice knowing that they think they can make it.

Good problem though.

[wank]

silly to sacrifice before they've bid a game. we've got a fair point count - they can easily be passing out 3S when game's good.

[nigel_k]

4♦ then 5♦.

I think it's quite unlikely 3♠ and 4♦ are both down so I can't afford to risk it going all pass. The biggest worry will be if they bid 4♠ and partner doubles. Passing that could be right but I would pull to 5♦ since my hand is not close to what partner will expect.