[Free]

Just use LTC next time, we have slam ambition!

[Cascade]

Free, on 2011-January-11, 08:41, said:

Just use LTC next time, we have slam ambition!

Its already my favourite excuse - "I had to raise partner I had 8 losers" after the contract goes two down.

[ArtK78]

dake50, on 2011-January-10, 14:26, said:

Why is 2H overcall? Instead of X?
Denies a 2nd place to play? Hopes to show 2nd?
Imagine if you will 1S <P> 1N <X>
. .2S <3C> p 3S(general F1) p 5C.
Is that from the Twilight Zone?

Yes.

At least, a takeout double with 1-6-2-4 with minimal values is from the Twilight Zone. Are you planning on passing a 2♦ response?

[whereagles]

Now that we're on to simulations, I entered the following script:

produce 10000
dealer west
predeal north SKJ976, H, DQT, CKT7542
 
1sp  = hcp(west)>10 and hcp(west)<21 and spades(west)>4 
       and hearts(south)<6 and diamonds(south)<6 and clubs(south)<6
tsp  = hcp(east)>4 and hcp(east)<10 and spades(east)==3
1nt  = hcp(east)>4 and hcp(east)<12 and spades(east)<4
2he  = hcp(south)>8 and hearts(south)>4 and hcp(south, hearts)>3

condition 1sp and 1nt and 2he and not tsp

action 
average(clubs(south)),
average(hearts(south)),
average(hcp(south))

and got

2.0089 average clubs
5.688 average hearts
12.8296 average hcp

This hints slightly at pulling to 3♣.

Demaning pard to have 6 hearts leads to

1.7957 clubs
6.4194 hearts
12.7061 hcp

This probably hints at pass.

I would say it depends on pard's degree of recklessness when it comes to overcalls

[Cascade]

whereagles I think there are a lot perhaps close to a majority of hands in your sample (1st) that would not overcall 2♥ - 9-12 with five hearts, even some with good hearts.

[gnasher]

whereagles, on 2011-January-11, 15:44, said:

1sp = hcp(west)>10 and hcp(west)<21 and spades(west)>4
and hearts(south)<6 and diamonds(south)<6 and clubs(south)<6

I think that the three instances of "south" in the above piece of code should read "west".

Quote

5.688 average hearts

Did you change the code after producing this result?

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2011-January-11, 17:59

[whereagles]

you're right, but I also found out dealer made some mix-up with the "not" operator. I have to redo the script.

stay tuned...

[whereagles]

All right, new code. Apparently, one has to be picky when choosing names for conditions: if I name two conditions "1st" and "2he" then 2he overrides 1st. This is probably a bug.

Anyway, it's working now (tested on a few hands). I limited hearts to 6-7, discarded 6+ diamonds as you'd probably want to overcall something else with a red 56 or 66. Got this

2.3155 average clubs in pard (went up after the debugging lol)
5.7741 average hearts in pard
11.0207 average pard hcp
2.7236 average clubs in LHO
4.3843 average hearts in LHO
Generated 2485104 hands
Produced 10000 hands
Initial random seed 1294817765
Time needed 4.817 sec

On abstract the simulation hints more at 3♣ being the right action. In practice, if you look at some of the examples, you'll probably find pard's overcall rather atrocious

Examples:

1.
K J 9 7 6           T 8                 Q                   A 5 4 3 2 
-                   K T 8 7 6 3         A Q J 9 5           4 2 
Q T                 9 8 3               6 5 2               A K J 7 4 
K T 7 5 4 2         Q 6                 J 9 8 3             A 

   2.
K J 9 7 6           4                   8 2                 A Q T 5 3 
-                   K 6 4 3             A J T 9 2           Q 8 7 5 
Q T                 K 8 6 3             A J 7 5 4           9 2 
K T 7 5 4 2         Q 9 8 3             J                   A 6 

   3.
K J 9 7 6           3                   8 5                 A Q T 4 2 
-                   8 3 2               A K Q J T 6         9 7 5 4 
Q T                 A 9 7 6 5           J 8 3 2             K 4 
K T 7 5 4 2         Q 9 8 6             3                   A J 

   4.
K J 9 7 6           T 2                 3                   A Q 8 5 4 
-                   Q 8 6 3             A K J T 9 2         7 5 4 
Q T                 A K 6 5 4 3         7 2                 J 9 8 
K T 7 5 4 2         6                   Q J 8 3             A 9 

   5.
K J 9 7 6           8 2                 4                   A Q T 5 3 
-                   7 5 4 3             A K Q T 9 8 6       J 2 
Q T                 A 7 4 3             9 8 6               K J 5 2 
K T 7 5 4 2         A 8 3               J 6                 Q 9 

   6.
K J 9 7 6           3 2                 5                   A Q T 8 4 
-                   Q 9 8               A J T 7 5 4 3       K 6 2 
Q T                 A K J 3 2           9 5 4               8 7 6 
K T 7 5 4 2         9 6 3               A 8                 Q J 

   7.
K J 9 7 6           T 3                 -                   A Q 8 5 4 2 
-                   A 4 2               K Q T 9 8 7 5       J 6 3 
Q T                 K 8 7 4 3 2         A 9 6 5             J 
K T 7 5 4 2         9 6                 Q J                 A 8 3 

   8.
K J 9 7 6           -                   Q 5 3               A T 8 4 2 
-                   9 7 5 3 2           K Q T 8 6 4         A J 
Q T                 A J 7               5 4 2               K 9 8 6 3 
K T 7 5 4 2         A 9 8 6 3           Q                   J 

   9.
K J 9 7 6           8                   3 2                 A Q T 5 4 
-                   K T 7 3             A Q 9 8 4           J 6 5 2 
Q T                 A K J 7 6 2         9 8 3               5 4 
K T 7 5 4 2         8 3                 Q J 9               A 6 

  10.
K J 9 7 6           5                   3 2                 A Q T 8 4 
-                   A J 8 6 3 2         K Q T 9 5 4         7 
Q T                 9 8 5 4 2           A J 6               K 7 3 
K T 7 5 4 2         8                   Q 3                 A J 9 6

Code was

produce 10000
dealer west
predeal north SKJ976, H, DQT, CKT7542 
  
1sp  = hcp(west)>10 and hcp(west)<21 and spades(west)>4  
       and hearts(west)<6 and diamonds(west)<6 and clubs(west)<6 
ont  = hcp(east)>4 and hcp(east)<12 and spades(east)<4 
twohe= hcp(south)>8 and hearts(south)>4 and hearts(south)<8 
       and hcp(south, hearts)>3 and diamonds(south)<6
ntsp = not(hcp(east)>4 and hcp(east)<10 and spades(east)==3) 

condition 1sp and ont and twohe and ntsp

action  
average(clubs(south)), 
average(hearts(south)), 
average(hcp(south)),
average(clubs(east)),
average(hearts(east))