CSGibson, on 2011-June-17, 08:41, said:
In this case, it means that I've been asked my opinion by a third party. I see no reason not to add my own voice to the chorus of answers; it has no bearing on what the "right" answer is.
With most of these kind of problems, the actual hand is not important, but a supplement. The answer has to be based upon the little know facts the opening lead has.
What is interesting about the actual hand and the bidding, is that the double is not only unsound, but decreases the chances of actually getting the contract down. Partner will have very little in his hand and if anything a
♠K,Q or J. With the actual hand, is it a surprise that the possibility of leading
♠ become a serious option?
To get this contract down, South needs a
♣ or
♥ lead, still with no guarantees if the
♠ deliver. There are no 5 tricks off the top without partners help and I don't see the double as improving those chances but decreasing them. Without the double I would have led a
♥ on the basis of giving declarer the least help and rely on the limited access he has to dummy to finesse partner.
bridge is never always a game of exact, for those times it's all about percentages, partner and the opponents.