[jmcw]

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15/17NT, 3♣GF

Got a decent score, but not too happy about the bidding! what ya think?

[han]

I'd just bid 5C over 3S.

[Cyberyeti]

han, on 2011-November-04, 11:32, said:

I'd just bid 5C over 3S.

I might have done it over 2♦

[pooltuna]

if you are going to at least 5♣ anyway you might try for partner to have the magic hand and bid 4♦ over 3♠

[whereagles]

Cyberyeti, on 2011-November-04, 11:51, said:

I might have done it over 2♦

I might have done it over 1NT.

[Cyberyeti]

whereagles, on 2011-November-04, 12:57, said:

I might have done it over 1NT.

A tad embarrassing when partner has ♥ AKxxx and you're off 3 aces

[Hanoi5]

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[jmcw]

Cyberyeti, on 2011-November-04, 17:54, said:

A tad embarrassing when partner has ♥ AKxxx and you're off 3 aces

Same embarrassment, if 3NT is laydown.

[whereagles]

Cyberyeti, on 2011-November-04, 17:54, said:

A tad embarrassing when partner has ♥ AKxxx and you're off 3 aces

Playing the odds gets you embarassed sometimes, but is a winner in the long run.

[aguahombre]

whereagles, on 2011-November-06, 11:32, said:

Playing the odds gets you embarassed sometimes, but is a winner in the long run.

As debated elsewhere, "playing the odds" is often just another way of saying "masterminding".

With the given hand, having a tool to locate a nine-card heart fit is a big winner in the long run over blasting immediately to 5♣, and not just when we might be off 3 bullets. The time to blast was over 3S, as Han said.

[aguahombre]

The serious debate should be whether 1-4-1-7 has a name.

Is 4-1-7-1 the only true Swan?
Is 4-2-7-0 a rubber ducky?

[JLOGIC]

I think your bidding was fine including 4C, you could still have a slam, sounds like partner often has no spade stopper which is great for our hand. AK of hearts, A A is a slam, and the bidding makes it more likely partner has that.

[whereagles]

aguahombre, on 2011-November-06, 12:50, said:

As debated elsewhere, "playing the odds" is often just another way of saying "masterminding".

With the given hand, having a tool to locate a nine-card heart fit is a big winner in the long run over blasting immediately to 5♣, and not just when we might be off 3 bullets. The time to blast was over 3S, as Han said.

"Playing the odds" is also weighing pros and cons. In this case the con is giving away info and the pro is to find pard with a magic hand that has like.. what? 0.00000000001%? of happening.

[aguahombre]

whereagles, on 2011-November-06, 16:56, said:

"Playing the odds" is also weighing pros and cons. In this case the con is giving away info and the pro is to find pard with a magic hand that has like.. what? 0.00000000001%? of happening.

At least you are ccnsistent with not involving partner in your decisions based on your odds. If there is a small chance of something, and I can find out, I don't consider the possibility that the opponents' knowing opener doesn't have 5 hearts will make our boat sink.

[Cyberyeti]

whereagles, on 2011-November-06, 16:56, said:

"Playing the odds" is also weighing pros and cons. In this case the con is giving away info and the pro is to find pard with a magic hand that has like.. what? 0.00000000001%? of happening.

This is a silly comment, Jxx, AKJ10, KQJx, xx is entirely plausible for partner's 1N as is Jxx, KJxx, KQJx, Ax, partner doesn't need 5 hearts, 5♣ is no play, 4♥ might make. The chance of this occurring is appreciable.

I would bid 1N-2♣-2♦ then bid 5♣ as 3♣ is nat NF for me (I habitually play a 12-14 1N where the 3♣ NF gets used a bit more).

[Free]

I agree with the auction so far, and would pass now. We've given partner a chance to show a sign of life over 4♣, but he didn't, so slam is unlikely.

[benlessard]

the bidding is totally normal. Partner 5C bid should show a disappointing hand so you have an easy pass.

[whereagles]

Cyberyeti, on 2011-November-06, 18:58, said:

This is a silly comment, Jxx, AKJ10, KQJx, xx is entirely plausible for partner's 1N as is Jxx, KJxx, KQJx, Ax, partner doesn't need 5 hearts, 5♣ is no play, 4♥ might make. The chance of this occurring is appreciable.

If you're going into the cherry-picking business, I can also play the game and place opps with a singleton club lead/switch and subsequent ruff. The chance of this occurring is appreciable.

[Cyberyeti]

whereagles, on 2011-November-08, 08:18, said:

If you're going into the cherry-picking business, I can also play the game and place opps with a singleton club lead/switch and subsequent ruff. The chance of this occurring is appreciable.

Agreed, but the key question is how often 5♣ makes when 4♥ doesn't if partner has 4+ hearts and vice versa, and without a sim, that's difficult to tell. Also you're likely to run into the ruff if the singleton is on lead, but if you haven't telegraphed the club suit in the auction, you may well survive it when the opening leader has 2 or 3.

[whereagles]

If the hand didn't have a side suit, then 5C would be the percentage bid. Playing 5m is usually better when the long minor has extra length and lacks the ace (see e.g. Klinger's 'losing trick count' book).

I'll agree that opposite 5 hearts across I'd rather be in 4H (opps are probably cold for 4S then, but ok let's skip that) but opposite just 4 hearts I'm not so sure anymore. Even if opener has like AKxx of hearts, I'd be weary of clubs dying out on a dummy tap at trick 2. Maybe this is skewed, but that sort of stuff happened to a pard of mine once and it was a catastrophe.