[kgr]

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I was presented this hand at the bar.
I don't know the bidding, but assume that opps didn't bid and South is playing 7♥.
And you get a ♥ lead.
What is the best play?
I wonder what is most likely?:
- ♣ 4-3
or
- ♣Q 2nd/3th OR ♣Q/♠Q in same hand
Edit: I changed North trumps from KQJxxx to KQxxxx
Edit: Trumps will be 3-1

[Fluffy]

I think the bestline on this is ♥K, ♣A ♥A, ♣ ruff, now if hearts are 2-2 its very easy, stablish clubs if possible and if RHO has 5, finese LHO for ♠Q.

With hearts 3-1 its a bit more messy, but if I can afford to ruff another club high and ruff a diamond I'd do it. Again, if clubs are not breaking I will finese the spades against the guy who doesn't hold 5♣


About your math problem I think Q second or Q third plus a 45% aprox squeeze is way above clubs 4-3.

[kgr]

Fluffy, on 2011-November-10, 03:04, said:

I think the bestline on this is ♥K, ♣A ♥A, ♣ ruff, now if hearts are 2-2 its very easy, stablish clubs if possible and if RHO has 5, finese LHO for ♠Q.

With hearts 3-1 its a bit more messy, but if I can afford to ruff another club high and ruff a diamond I'd do it. Again, if clubs are not breaking I will finese the spades against the guy who doesn't hold 5♣


About your math problem I think Q second or Q third plus a 45% aprox squeeze is way above clubs 4-3.

I changed North trumps, they weren't that good.

[MrAce]

Do not count the Qx or stiff ♣Q options since all lines seem to make if it is. The possible lines are A-To play for 4-3♣ and if not to take ♠ finesse B-Cash AK♠ if Q drops make if not ♣ finesse



After Fluffy's take ♥ K , ♣A and ♥A play

-If West has 3♥ then cash ♦A, ♣K, if nothing happened ruff a ♣ and claim if 4-3. If 5-2 West has 5 of them u have a ruffing finesse available now for 13th trick so claim. If East has 5♣ then ruff ♦, ruff ♣ cash all trumps. East has to hold a ♣. A smart east will discard a ♠ from original xx to pretend like he had Qxx and squeezed, you have to guess then. He can not do this from Qx though. Note that squeeze is deceptive here.

-If East has 3 trumps, very messy, your options are not as good as above. For example u can not cash ♣K and ruff 3rd ♣ because u maybe overruffed. 2nd thing u need to always ruff a diamond if u wanna be able to make on 4-3 ♣ with someone holding Qxxx and in order to do that u need to cash ♦A before u ruff 2nd ♣. Then u will ruff ♦ and again you are in dummy with danger of being overruffed on 3rd ♣ and can not keep your "either 4-3♣ or ♠ finesse" option anymore. At this point you either will choose to play for 4-3 ♣ and ruff 3rd ♣ or will have to choose to play for ♠ finesse.


4-3 ♣ is about % 62 i suppose (as i said do not count Qx or Q club because other lines win too if so) with ♠ finesse it comes to apprx % 78 i suppose. But not that much if East has 3 trumps.

Cashing ♠AK if Q not drop then ♣ finesse is about %66 if i am not wrong.

At the table i would probably go with Gonzalo's line if West has 3 trumps, if east has it probably will clear trumps and cash AK ♠ and if nothing happens would take ♣ ruffing finesse.

Perhaps Fluffy replied this when u posted North's trumps as KQJxxx. Or i maybe off at this time of the morning, it wont be a surprise if so

[Mbodell]

I think I play ♥A, ♦A, ♣A, ruff a ♦, ruff a ♣, run hearts, cross to the ♠K and cash ♣K pitching a spade. Now I should have ♠AJ in N and ♠T and ♣J in S. Assuming the ♣Q still hasn't been found I have to read the position, although the show up squeeze or marked finesse may be on depending on the play to this point.

[MrAce]

Mbodell, on 2011-November-10, 05:25, said:

I think I play ♥A, ♦A, ♣A, ruff a ♦, ruff a ♣, run hearts, cross to the ♠K and cash ♣K pitching a spade. Now I should have ♠AJ in N and ♠T and ♣J in S. Assuming the ♣Q still hasn't been found I have to read the position, although the show up squeeze or marked finesse may be on depending on the play to this point.

Or You are already down if East has Qxx ♠ and West had Qxxx ♣. And when not, u have to still guess the position.

[dave_w]

The start seems easy: ♥K, ♣A, ♦A, ruff a club low.

Now I think best is to ruff a diamond and cash the ♥A.
If hearts are 2-2 ♣K and set up clubs unless RHO has 5 (in which case finesse LHO for the ♠Q),
If hearts are 3-1 ruff a club low (can't afford ♣K first incase it gets ruffed). If clubs are 5-2 then draw trumps and finesse RHO hand for the ♠Q (vacant spaces makes this a 8-3 proposition a better than 66% finesse). If clubs are 2-5 then run trumps for a show up squeeze against RHO (has to hold Qx of clubs so must come down to a singleton spade in the 3 card ending).
If hearts are 1-3 then ruff a club low and preceed as above (except we are down if we get overruffed!). Richard Pavlicek's suit break calculator tells me that this is 79% likely to not be overruffed in the position we get to. Which must make the line better than taking a finesse in Spades (if the Club is getting overruffed then vacant spaces would suggest finessing RHO (!) for the ♠Q, which is against what we'd guess right now givn the trump split).

[MrAce]

dave_w, on 2011-November-10, 06:07, said:

If hearts are 3-1 ruff a club low (can't afford ♣K first incase it gets ruffed). If clubs are 5-2 then draw trumps and finesse RHO hand for the ♠Q (vacant spaces makes this a 8-3 proposition a better than 66% finesse). If clubs are 2-5 then run trumps for a show up squeeze against RHO (has to hold Qx of clubs so must come down to a singleton spade in the 3 card ending).

I assume u mean by 3-1 ♥ here West holding 3♥.

1-♥K
2-♣A
3-♦A
4-♣ruff
5-♦ruff
6-♥A

now u said ruff a low ♣ (3rd♣) so

7-♣ruff (and we saw East has 5♣ and u suggest we run all trumps, we have only 2 left by the way)
8-Cash trump
9-Cash trump

How is this last 3 cards ?

Anyway which show up squeeze are u talking about ? It is last 4 cards and East can hold either Qx♣+2♠ or Qx♣+1♦+1♠. How will u know which one he has ? He will always discard a ♠ from both Qxx and xx holdings. No need to mention u went down (if ♠ finesse fails) when West has 5♣ and 3♥ also (was cold) due to bad timing (not being able to cash ♣K early and not being able to finesse west when see 5-2)

[dave_w]

MrAce, on 2011-November-10, 06:14, said:

I assume u mean by 3-1 ♥ here West holding 3♥.

1-♥K
2-♣A
3-♦A
4-♣ruff
5-♦ruff
6-♥A

now u said ruff a low ♣ (3rd♣) so

7-♣ruff (and we saw East has 5♣ and u suggest we run all trumps, we have only 2 left by the way)
8-Cash trump
9-Cash trump

How is this last 3 cards ?

9 - ♠A
10 - Cash trump
East must keep Qx of clubs (so pitch the Club Jack) and play a Spade to the King.

[MrAce]

dave_w, on 2011-November-10, 07:01, said:

9 - ♠A
10 - Cash trump
East must keep Qx of clubs (so pitch the Club Jack) and play a Spade to the King.

Really ? Wow So u come to 3 card ending AFTER u already cash ♠A, how will this help you ?

What if godforbid West has Qxx ♠ ?

[dave_w]

MrAce, on 2011-November-10, 07:16, said:

Really ? Wow So u come to 3 card ending AFTER u already cash ♠A, how will this help you ?

What if godforbid West has Qxx ♠ ?

Then I go down. I said my choice was the show up squeeze at the position I arrived at. Pointing out a losing case for that position doesn't make it a bad play. I could NOT cash the ♠A and claim that I would guess the position at the table. That way I'll never be wrong in the forum ...

[MrAce]

dave_w, on 2011-November-10, 07:54, said:

Then I go down. I said my choice was the show up squeeze at the position I arrived at. Pointing out a losing case for that position doesn't make it a bad play. I could NOT cash the ♠A and claim that I would guess the position at the table. That way I'll never be wrong in the forum ...

Correct, because thats not called squeeze, u are basically playing East with ♠ Q

Or you could play differently where u do not put yourself into a ♠ guess situation when West has 3♥+5♣. As i said, when East has 3♥, i like your line more though.

The reason i prefer Gonzalo's line is, he cashes ♥ A before ruffing ♦ and if 2-2 ♥ or 3-1 ♥, he has the tempo to cash ♣K before he ruffs a small one, which allows him to see when west has 5♣ and so go for ruffing finesse and claim regardless of who has ♠Q. You cant do it the way u played, because u ruff ♦ before u learn how ♥ were split and who had 3 of them.

[kgr]

MrAce, on 2011-November-10, 05:15, said:

Perhaps Fluffy replied this when u posted North's trumps as KQJxxx.

Yes, I changed it after Fluffy's reply

[dave_w]

MrAce, on 2011-November-10, 08:21, said:

Correct, because thats not called squeeze, u are basically playing East with ♠ Q

Or you could play differently where u do not put yourself into a ♠ guess situation when West has 3♥+5♣. As i said, when East has 3♥, i like your line more though.

The reason i prefer Gonzalo's line is, he cashes ♥ A before ruffing ♦ and if 2-2 ♥ or 3-1 ♥, he has the tempo to cash ♣K before he ruffs a small one, which allows him to see when west has 5♣ and so go for ruffing finesse and claim regardless of who has ♠Q. You cant do it the way u played, because u ruff ♦ before u learn how ♥ were split and who had 3 of them.

Yes I think I prefer your order of play: ♥K, ♣A, ♥A and then:

if hearts are 2-2: Cash ♣K, play a club and claim unless East has 5 clubs: in which case finesse West for the ♠Q

if West has 3♥: Cash ♣King, ♦A, ruff a club, ruff a diamond, ruff a club (ruffing finesse if that's shown to work). When East also has 5 clubs, then run trumps and I think playing the show-up squeeze is best here: There's one vacant space difference to favour West having the ♠Q (6-5) but the show up squeeze picks up Qx with West and any Queen with East.(see note below)

if East has 3♥: ♦A, ruff a club, ruff a diamond, ruff a club. If the club doesn't get overruffed then we are home unless East has 5 clubs and 3 hearts: finesse West for the ♠Q.

When East has 3 hearts then we can't combine chances very well, and I don't think anything can be done about this.

The best line for the show up squeeze is NOT to cash the ♠A, but bring the position down to a 4 card ending of ♠AJxx opposite ♠KTx ♣K where East is known to have ♣Qx (or we can keep the ♣J and claim!). Then cash the ♠K, ♣K, ♠A (unless there is a marked finesse). This has a 61% chance of working as opposed to playing west for the ♠Q which works 54.5% of the time. (Note that this is AFTER hearts are 3-1 and clubs are 2-5).

[MrAce]

Welcome to forums by the way Dave