[Phil]

You reach an ordinary 3N on these cards:

Its matchpoints.

---

The opponents appear to be competent but not brilliant.

The Opening lead is the spade 3, low, T....

1. Do you choose to win the A or the Q?

2. After you make your choice, do you like:

a) Run a middle heart to RHO? (which one by the way?)
b) Play a club to the board and try to duck a heart to LHO (which heart do you play?)
c) Run your clubs and see what they discard on the 4th club (they are 4-3 BTW, but I won't tell you who has the long club).
d) Something else.

[kenrexford]

Do they play Smith???

[ArtK78]

I suppose cashing 9 tricks and making 11 if spades are 3-3 (or something more than 9 if the opponents make some horrendous mistake(s) on the run of your 9 winners if spades were not 3-3) is out of the question.

Quite frankly, I would sooner lead a diamond at trick 2 than try to duck a heart into either hand.

[JLOGIC]

I would cash out. Well I guess that's line C, but I can't imagine anything happening where I do something other than cash out. We don't have to try to be a hero just because the board is flat.

Line a is just straight up suicide. RHO is going to win the heart and return a diamond...look at the dummy. Line B has more going for it since a diamond shift from LHO will be harder but there is still too much chance he figures it out, or has something like Qxx or Kxx which is even an attractive play. If he decides to think about the hand even slightly in depth, he will know our clubs are good/running (we crossed to the CK), he will know we have the HA, and he will certainly suspect our spade holding. Even if he does return a non diamond, we still have not necessarily gained anything...we need 3-3 hearts.

If you tried something whether it worked or not I'm going to say you're trying to do to much. Don't force the good boards, be like water, just flow.

[Fluffy]

win the queen of spades, then any player can have the ace.

I would try to duck a heart to LHO, he is probably 4333 on the lead, also 4324 and 4234 are possible but hearts 3-3 is stll a goo doption.

[JLOGIC]

Fluffy, on 2011-November-23, 15:55, said:

win the queen of spades, then any player can have the ace.

This is standard protocol, however in this case you're risking getting yourself counted out (if LHO has something like AQx of diamonds), and your play is very obvious when you cross to dummy in clubs to duck into LHO (why would you do this when you have Qx of spades?).

Also, do you think LHO led from J9xx of spades? That would be a very weird lead, if he doesn't have the jack then again he will definitely know you have AQ of spades since with QJ you would play another spade yourself.

All of this risk for not even a guaranteed trick. I really hate the idea of gambling away the entire board by putting myself at their mercy, and not even telling a believable story, I'm just flat out hoping they do something terrible for not much reason, and even then I need a little help from the god of fortunes to give me 3-3 hearts. I'd rather take risks when I am in control, or at least when I'm selling a good story and believe I have a strong edge. Some boards are flat... taking 50 % is fine imo.

[mikeh]

As an admittedly indifferent mp player, my take is that unless one is playing in a very weak field, it is best to ensure that your averages don't become zeros......take whatever gifts are donated, take opportunities to win the board through technique, take risks where the chances of success are favourable, but don't insult the opponents, unless you are sure they deserve the insult.

Ducking a heart to either opp not only has a limited upside if they err, but requires that the opp winning the trick make a play that is almost certainly a clear error.

I could see doing this if you (but not they) knew that hearts were 3-3 and I thought the opps were very bad. But here, even if the opps are very bad, such that you have a 50% chance that they won't play diamonds, you need hearts to be 3-3...the odds are pretty good that they are, given the lead, but it isn't a sure thing at all: maybe West was just making what he thought was a passive lead, or even a short suit lead based on expecting his partner to hold long spades (tho the play of the 10 suggests otherwise)

Take the average and go hunting elsewhere.

But in a stratified, against a flt c pair, take the chance....you need a 72% game to have any hope!

[JLOGIC]

Say there is a 0 % chance spades are 3-3, and a 75 % chance hearts will be picked up, and a 0 % chance we will pick up a trick later in the hand if we don't duck a heart, and it is actually a 0/50/100 spot based on going down, making, or getting an overtrick...we need a club to the king and a heart to the 9 to work 62.5 % of the time to break even. I do not think continuing spades with Kxxxx in dummy rather than shifting to dummy's 3 small will occur that often, and that is giving quite favorable assumptions to the "going for it" camp.

We can argue whether we want to increase the variance like this or not, but in my mind it's just a play that has a pretty big -EV so it's not even worth arguing about the variance side of it.

[Phil]

It was a speedball online. The play there can range from decent to those that struggle to click the right suit when they play.

I ducked the heart to RHO who woodenly returned a spade and scored up 430 when LHO held ♥Tx.

In retrospect against anyone that can count, this is pretty reckless play I admit.

[JLOGIC]

Quote

The opponents appear to be competent

Quote

RHO who woodenly returned a spade

Quote

In retrospect against anyone that can count,

cool

[nige1]

Phil asked "Its matchpoints. You reach an ordinary 3N on these cards: The Opening lead is the spade 3, low, T....

IMO, cash ♠A, ♣KAQJ, ♠Q, ♥K, ♠K76. A few lucky breaks and you make +3, for a fair score at matchpoints.

If you lead a ♦ at trick 3 and RHO ducks, then +4

---

[JLOGIC]

im sure RHO would never X 3D with that!

In other news, I think the 3D bid was quite bad

[gszes]

Unless I need a top board
I dont see this as a problem

we have avoided a possibly killing dia
lead and have a tiny chance of
safely making 5.

TAKE OUR NINE (or 11) TRICKS AND RUN

a spade will probably NOT be the normal
choice at 3n at other tables so why
invite disaster?

Go JLOGIC

[jschafer]

What was the layout?

[Phil]

jschafer, on 2011-November-25, 06:12, said:

What was the layout?

RHO's hand was T8, QJxx AKTx xxx.