[han]

Here is another hand from the Dutch pairs championship.

Q
AQ10xx
109xxx
xx

Red against white. The auction:

p - p - 1D - (1S)
3H* - (3S) - p - (5H**)
Dbl - Rdbl*** - p - 6S

3H = fit jump
5H = exclusion
Dbl = maybe they don't know their responses if I double.
Rdbl = even

What do you lead?

[dave_w]

trump.

And then another when partner wins their Ace. I can't really blow a trick leading singleton Queen. Declarer can take restricted choice (though might cash the wrong honour). Or they might play for me to have not led a singleton trump Queen and play for me to have QJ tight.

[JLOGIC]

Ace of hearts. The 5H bidder is ***** around, we know this because we only have 5 hearts and partner didn't even raise us to 4H after we made a fit jump. I mean, ok, it's possible partner passed with 3 hearts and dummy has 5 or something, or that partner has opened some kind of yarborough red/white and didn't want to raise with FOUR hearts but it is highly likely that RHO has some hearts and a diamond void or something of that nature IMO. That is also by far our best chance to beat them, if partner really does have 4 hearts and a hand so horrible he didn't want to raise 3H, then we are unlikely to beat them. Kiddie game down the street boys (ok I'm going to regret this comment if I'm wrong). Seriously might depend on who RHO is but dutch pairs championships sounds like a field where they are more likely to psyche the exclusion than bid the correct exclusion.

Even without the inference that RHO is not that likely to have a heart void when partner doesn't raise us which admittedly is less clear than normal red vs white and partner being third seat (though it might depend on who partner is and how light he will open in third), in a double fit auction of this kind is RHO really going to spill the beans on what his actual void is if he thinks the lead might matter? He is far far more likely to psyche it imo, unless he was truly worried that he could make 7 which is just unlikely. Especially at matchpoints, he might just be stiff void and want to bid 6 and get the wrong lead in order to make him more likely to make an overtrick. I just find the 5H bid extremely fishy and I do think that people psyche it way too much in this spot. Everything just points to leading the HA imo.

[han]

Obviously JLOGIC got this right, the player at the table did not and 6S made.

The exclusion bidder was Maarten Schollaardt. I didn't want to say this because it would have made it even easier for LOGIC.

[dave_w]

han, on 2012-April-23, 03:28, said:

Obviously JLOGIC got this right, the player at the table did not and 6S made.

The exclusion bidder was Maarten Schollaardt. I didn't want to say this because it would have made it even easier for LOGIC.

Obviously I should wait for jlall's answer to any post before making a fool of myself as well. I've never had exclusion psyched against me - I'm glad that it's first happen in the bbo forums where the -17 imps are imaginary.

[FrancesHinden]

I loved JLOGIC's analysis.

I've never had exclusion psyched against me, but I've had an easier one to pick:

1S - 2NT (strong raise)
4C (void) - 4S
6S

we cashed the AK of clubs. The auction on that one smells more obviously than Han's.

[lalldonn]

We are getting pretty close to bidding exclusion in your actual void being considered a psych!

[han]

I didn't mean to say that you made a fool of yourself Dave, I hope you didn't interpret my "obvious" in that way. I meant that, looking at JLOGIC's analysis, it's pretty hard not to agree.