[cherdano]

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1♣ was 4+, playing 4-card majors and weak NT.

[Charlie Yu]

Pass, nothing to fancy. p probably dont have a lot, and wastage in round suits are likely

[Free]

I'd bid 4♦ but it's not invitational.

[Fluffy]

I bid 5♦ but I expect it to be a good sacrifice if it doesn't make.

[the_clown]

I would surely bid game.

[paulg]

I guess this is aggregate scoring so I'll just bid game. Even if partner has a singleton club and four diamonds it may not be enough for slam.

[mikeh]

I was looking at the choices, then saw the hand. I cannot imagine not bidding game.

It comes down to his club holding but note that partner is likely to hold short clubs. RHO is weak. He would probably have competed, despite his weakness, if he held 6 spades or was 5-5 majors. LHO has 4 spades (let's work on that assumption) and won't have 5 hearts.

So partner probably has 8 or 9 major suit cards to go along with his diamond support.

On a good day he holds something like Jxxx xxxx AJxx x and we have decent play for slam.

As it is, partners rarely hold magic cards, so I'll give up on slam since I don't know how to find it when it's right while avoiding it when it's wrong. I'll just bid the (obvious) game.

[cherdano]

I readily admit that I might be overthinking this (hence the title!), but some comments in this thread make me think many posters are not thinking properly through the consequences of the opponents' system.

Quote

On a good day he holds something like Jxxx xxxx AJxx x and we have decent play for slam.

Slam is only good if LHO has a strong NT. I would think LHO is more likely to have 5 clubs, in which case slam has no play unless you add a good diamond spot as another magical card in partner's hand, and disallow a trump lead. Switch partner's minor suit shapes to 3=2, and 9 tricks are the limit on a trump lead.

I think quite a lot comes down to how likely it is that LHO is balanced. Once you add a little bit of major suit wastage cards to partner's hand, that becomes very unlikely.

[mikeh]

cherdano, on 2013-February-12, 12:00, said:

I readily admit that I might be overthinking this (hence the title!), but some comments in this thread make me think many posters are not thinking properly through the consequences of the opponents' system.

Slam is only good if LHO has a strong NT. I would think LHO is more likely to have 5 clubs, in which case slam has no play unless you add a good diamond spot as another magical card in partner's hand, and disallow a trump lead. Switch partner's minor suit shapes to 3=2, and 9 tricks are the limit on a trump lead.

I think quite a lot comes down to how likely it is that LHO is balanced. Once you add a little bit of major suit wastage cards to partner's hand, that becomes very unlikely.

I disagree

While 4414 hands are a priori low frequency, we have good reason to think that this may indeed be opener's shape. I'm not saying that it is 'probably' his shape, merely that opener's hand is not limited to 'either strong 1N or long clubs'.

As it is, a strong notrump is entirely consistent with the auction.

I am nitpicking, since I gave up on slam when I opted for game.

[CSGibson]

if I could use 4C as a natural game try, I would. If I am forced to guess, I'll bid game with the expectation that it will go down a large percentage of the time because RHO will be over-ruffing diamonds even if I don't get a trump lead.