[Sjoerds]

blackshoe, on 2013-October-24, 17:12, said:

I'm not ruling on this without more information. Including, perhaps, how long EW have been telepaths, since they apparently can read North's mind.

The pause before pass was no discussion.

ahydra, on 2013-October-24, 09:38, said:

Did anyone ask North why he led a spade?

Yep: North told me "I know south must have about 10 HP. If I start with ♥K I will get only one trick unless partner has something nice in ♥. I rather try to reach partner in an other suit"

[campboy]

Trinidad, on 2013-October-24, 12:08, said:

I don't think it works like that. I know that we are not talking about LA's here, but if you have one line of play that has a 50% chance of success and another that has a 75% chance for success, is the 50% line than an LA? No, it isn't to anybody who can do the math.

If South was thinking about doubling, the double normally asks North to find South's suit. That means that the suggested lead would be a club.

Suppose that South would have doubled to ask North to find his suit. Is there anybody here who would have tried a spade with the North hand? Or would everybody have led a club?

I think that everybody (100%) would have led a club, because the club lead has objectively the best chance to find partner's long suit. There are no guarantees, but it is crystal clear that it is the percentage play. Any other lead than a club would be really, really dumb. If we would be talking about LA's here: there are no LA's, not even remotely.

So, the BIT suggests a club lead and a club lead only. The BIT cannot suggest a lead that nobody would make if South actually would have doubled, rather than just thought about it. Hence, a spade lead is not suggested by the BIT, simply because the BIT says that it would be a really, really dumb lead.

I do not buy this at all. The laws talk about one alternative being suggested over another. So what we have to consider is purely whether spades is suggested over hearts; the fact that clubs is suggested over both is irrelevant. Without the BIT both spades and hearts are plausible (I prefer spades but I don't know if I'm right to do so). With the BIT a heart lead is definitely wrong, but a spade lead might be right (as here).

[Fluffy]

The only thing I am sure is that 9 tricks are not being taken, low heart is a normal lead with that holding and there is no reason to think other card would be used.

[lamford]

Fluffy, on 2013-October-25, 17:02, said:

The only thing I am sure is that 9 tricks are not being taken, low heart is a normal lead with that holding and there is no reason to think other card would be used.

The possession of the nine is strong reason to think that a top heart would normally be led. Indeed, I recall a Woolsey article where he argued leading a top card from KQ8x(x) was theoretically best. Here, however, it is the selection of a non-heart which might be a breach of 16b (and 73C) after the BIT. And in response to blackshoe, EW are not reading North's mind in claiming this. They are just following: "When a player has substantial reason to believe that an opponent who had a logical alternative has chosen an action that could have been suggested by such information, he should summon the Director when play ends." I am sure that the translation from the Dutch might well be imperfect, and they would have indicated such substantial reason in some form or other. It matters not and no telepathy is needed.

[blackshoe]

And people say I have no sense of humor. Ha!

[Trinidad]

campboy, on 2013-October-25, 03:31, said:

I do not buy this at all. The laws talk about one alternative being suggested over another. So what we have to consider is purely whether spades is suggested over hearts; the fact that clubs is suggested over both is irrelevant.

The fact that a spade lead has a slightly higher chance for success than a heart lead is a red herring. If you can make your contract:
a ) on a finesse
b ) on dropping a singleton king, missing 8 cards in the suit
c ) on dropping a singleton king, missing 9 cards in the suit

you are not going to analyze that dropping the king missing 8 would be a better play than dropping a king missing 9. You take the finesse. Any other play would be silly.

This is the same thing. If partner doubles, you lead a club. It is irrelevant that a spade lead would have a 0.000001% probability of finding partner's suit and a heart lead would have a 0.0000001% (1 extra zero) probability of finding partner's suit, because we are not talking about success probabilities, we are talking about the probability that a player would chose this action: what percentage of players would chose this action.

The probability for dropping a king missing 8 cards in the suit is an order of magnitude higher than the probability for dropping a king missing 9 cards in a suit, but it doesn't matter: 0.0000000000% of the players would ever chose that play.

In a similar way, the probability for hitting partner's spade suit may be 10 times higher than the probability that you will hit partner's heart suit. It doesn't matter, since both probabilities are a 100 times smaller than that for finding partner with clubs, which means that 100.000000% of the players would lead a club. If 0.0000000% of the players would lead a heart with the UI and 0.0000000% would lead a spade with the UI, how can the UI suggest a spade lead over a heart lead, even if the probability for success for a spade lead is an order (or 4 orders for all I care) of magnitude higher than that for the heart lead?

Rik

[Trinidad]

lamford, on 2013-October-25, 18:08, said:

The possession of the nine is strong reason to think that a top heart would normally be led. Indeed, I recall a Woolsey article where he argued leading a top card from KQ8x(x) was theoretically best.

I recall an article where someone (don't remember who) argued that it made a big difference whether you expect the strength to be over or under you. With strength over you start with the top card, with strength under you start low.

Of course, it doesn't matter what articles we have read. It matters what North read.

Rik

[lamford]

Trinidad, on 2013-October-25, 23:18, said:

Of course, it doesn't matter what articles we have read. It matters what North read.

No that does not matter either. All that matters is what peers of North, playing the same methods, would lead without the UI, and what the UI demonstrably suggests. And any arguments in favour of a spade lead, even if they had validity which I do not accept, are irrelevant, as all that is needed for an adjustment (assuming we decide that the UI demonstrably suggests a non-heart lead) is for something like 20% of North's peers to seriously consider a heart lead, and 10% to actually choose it. That seems incontrovertible, on any poll.

[FrancesHinden]

Trinidad, on 2013-October-24, 12:08, said:

If South was thinking about doubling, the double normally asks North to find South's suit. That means that the suggested lead would be a club.Suppose that South would have doubled to ask North to find his suit. Is there anybody here who would have tried a spade with the North hand? Or would everybody have led a club?I think that everybody (100%) would have led a club, because the club lead has objectively the best chance to find partner's long suit. There are no guarantees, but it is crystal clear that it is the percentage play. Any other lead than a club would be really, really dumb. If we would be talking about LA's here: there are no LA's, not even remotely.So, the BIT suggests a club lead and a club lead only. The BIT cannot suggest a lead that nobody would make if South actually would have doubled, rather than just thought about it. Hence, a spade lead is not suggested by the BIT, simply because the BIT says that it would be a really, really dumb lead.Rik

Fluffy, on 2013-October-25, 17:02, said:

The only thing I am sure is that 9 tricks are not being taken, low heart is a normal lead with that holding and there is no reason to think other card would be used.

There are a lot of 'normally's going on here.
I am aware of 4 common meanings for the auction 1NT P 3NT dbl

• Lead a spade
  
• Find my major
  
• Find my suit
  
• It's going off / undiscussed

The one I have seen by far the most often is 'find my major'
If this pair played double as 'lead a heart' (which I haven't seen, but I can see an argument for it) then no-one would be ruling against them when he leads a spade.

Similarly, I think the K or Q (depending on honour leading agreements) is the 'normal' lead form KQ9x but I know that others don't.

What matters is what this pair's agreements are, not what 'normal' agreements are.

p.s. there is an argument that when a sophisticated player thinks then passes he wants a lead that isn't the one that double suggests (he is working out that he can't double, because it won't get the right lead). But every time I have seen this or similar pauses at the table, it's never been because of that - it's always been because they are simply deciding whether to double or not and they have the holding that double would suggest.

[billw55]

FrancesHinden, on 2013-October-28, 06:36, said:

There are a lot of 'normally's going on here.
I am aware of 4 common meanings for the auction 1NT P 3NT dbl

• Lead a spade
• Find my major
• Find my suit
• It's going off / undiscussed

And for 1, 2, or 3, a heart lead is obviously ruled out.

I still think this is an adjustment unless someone can argue that leading a heart is not a LA.

[Sjoerds]

billw55, on 2013-October-28, 07:08, said:

I still think this is an adjustment unless someone can argue that leading a heart is not a LA.

I polled what to start after this sequence without of course the UI

2x ♠x
1x ♦x
1x ♥K

I must say I was a bit surprised, but most argued that starting a ♥ would bring you only 1 trick and if you wait you get two.

I didn't change the score

[helene_t]

I really don't like EW's accusation. It is quite possible that North wouldn't have found the spade lead without the BIT but we can't know. If anyone deserves a PP it is EW.

[Trinidad]

FrancesHinden, on 2013-October-28, 06:36, said:

There are a lot of 'normally's going on here.
I am aware of 4 common meanings for the auction 1NT P 3NT dbl

• Lead a spade
  
• Find my major
  
• Find my suit
  
• It's going off / undiscussed

The one I have seen by far the most often is 'find my major'

That's very nice. But I suspect that where Sjoerd is playing 4 is the most common one, followed at a long distance by 3. If Sjoerd would suggest meanings 1 and 2 at his club, the members would start to gaze at him and wonder whether he has been smoking those funny mushrooms again.

Rik

[billw55]

Trinidad, on 2013-October-29, 08:16, said:

That's very nice. But I suspect that where Sjoerd is playing 4 is the most common one, followed at a long distance by 3. If Sjoerd would suggest meanings 1 and 2 at his club, the members would start to gaze at him and wonder whether he has been smoking those funny mushrooms again.

Rik

OK, this is different situation that I expected. In this case it sounds like nothing special is suggested, and Sjoerd's poll seems to show that a heart lead has few fans. With these facts, I would now say no adjustment.

[aguahombre]

Great player, strange club --polling players at same club. It does change everything for me, as it did for Bill above..to no adjustment. Maybe a visitor was Declarer.

[lamford]

Sjoerds, on 2013-October-29, 07:10, said:

I polled what to start after this sequence without of course the UI

2x ♠x
1x ♦x
1x ♥K

I must say I was a bit surprised, but most argued that starting a ♥ would bring you only 1 trick and if you wait you get two.

I didn't change the score

Even though you only polled four people, that was enough to establish that a top heart was an LA. You should, I think, also poll to find out what they think is demonstrably suggested by the UI. If, as I believe, that is a non-heart lead, you should still have adjusted, or at the very least have extended the poll.

[Cyberyeti]

Maybe south was thinking about bidding a suit at this vul, 4♠ is one off because the A♣ is wrong and a good save if you weren't going to beat 3N, I don't think any suit is particularly suggested although hearts may be slightly non-suggested.

[aguahombre]

Trinidad, on 2013-October-29, 08:16, said:

That's very nice. But I suspect that where Sjoerd is playing 4 is the most common one, followed at a long distance by 3. If Sjoerd would suggest meanings 1 and 2 at his club, the members would start to gaze at him and wonder whether he has been smoking those funny mushrooms again.

Perhaps, at this club, the correct thing to do would have been give the peers two polls:

1N-3N &

1N- (P) 3N (X).

This would be time-consuming, however. Sjoerd would have to wait about 15 minutes for them to forget the first poll before doing the second one.

[StevenG]

lamford, on 2013-October-29, 19:32, said:

Even though you only polled four people, that was enough to establish that a top heart was an LA. You should, I think, also poll to find out what they think is demonstrably suggested by the UI. If, as I believe, that is a non-heart lead, you should still have adjusted, or at the very least have extended the poll.

But I'm going to lead a spade without the UI. If I want to use the UI, I'm going to switch to a club, because that's the best chance of finding partner's long suit. Since I've got four spades, it seems very unlikely that partner's suit will be spades. (Given the auction and my hand, what is the (Bayesian) probability that partner's suit is spades?)

If we assume that double wouldn't have asked for a spade, then not only does it demonstrably suggest a non-heart lead, it also demonstrably suggests a non-spade lead.

Of course, if double does ask for a spade, then the meaning of the UI is completely different.

[lamford]

StevenG, on 2013-October-30, 10:07, said:

But I'm going to lead a spade without the UI. If I want to use the UI, I'm going to switch to a club, because that's the best chance of finding partner's long suit.

I agree that the BIT suggests a club over a spade, but it also suggests a spade over a heart. If partner has a suit he wants led, it is most likely to be clubs. However, you know partner does not want a heart lead, so all other suits are demonstrably suggested over hearts, and non-heart leads are therefore breaches of 16B.