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Poor judgement or bad luck?

#41 User is offline   beowulf 

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Posted 2014-March-04, 20:41

View PostJinksy, on 2014-March-04, 06:51, said:

I don’t understand bidding 2S. What’s it supposed to achieve?

As others have said - just bid normally and involve your partner. Partner has shown a decent hand and you have 8 points. There's no reason to curl up and die. Your side has 19 hcp, theirs 21. So it's not at all clear that they "own" the hand, especially when you have the spades.

If partner gets to raise your spades, as he likely will, you will know that you have an eight-card spade fit and, in all probability, an eight-card club fit. Having a double fit like that should make you want to bid (or pass), not double. It's true that you have a surprise in hearts and a trump lead might be a successful defense but double is speculative.

It will be a tough decision over 5 but, having described your hand well, partner will be in a much better position to make a decision over 5 than you. With Qx in diamonds he's unlikely to want to bid 5 (which could be down too many) but will also know that they might easily make 5, given that you couldn't overcall the 1 bid.

If your side does end up in 5X, you might easily win a few imps if you are able to hold the damage to down two.
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#42 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-March-05, 00:56

View PostJinksy, on 2014-March-04, 17:08, said:

I agree it shows both of those things. I don't agree that I have either of them.


You don't have 5S? Did you get the hand record wrong?
Isn't spades the boss suit?
At this stage you know very little about the hand. Could your partner not have Axx in S or better and 5/6 decent Clubs? You need to tell your partner what you have, not be frightened.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#43 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2014-March-05, 04:52

I don't call K9xxx 'semi-decent'. And I still don't understand what I'm trying to achieve by bidding here other than to prove that I've heard of fit non-jumps.

This hand looks like a misfit. Just because the points are split doesn't mean I want to compete.
The "4 is a transfer to 4" award goes to Jinksy - PhilKing
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#44 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2014-March-05, 05:27

View PostJinksy, on 2014-March-05, 04:52, said:

I don't call K9xxx 'semi-decent'. And I still don't understand what I'm trying to achieve by bidding here other than to prove that I've heard of fit non-jumps.

This hand looks like a misfit. Just because the points are split doesn't mean I want to compete.

Why don't you want to compete? Partner will have either six clubs or a good hand, and the spades are known to be breaking. The opponents are almost guaranteed to have a diamond fit, so one obvious upside of 2 is that it may push them to an unmakeable 3 when they were about to play in 2.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#45 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2014-March-05, 05:48

I would bid 1 over 1

I would bid 2 over 2

I would not DBL 5 myself but i have sympathy to the thoughts of Jinsky and would not criticize it.

I agree that when a dbl gives us too much info to the declarer to a point that a normally unmakeable contracts become makeable. But there is another side of this coin. Tbh i have seen also a lot of contracts which was cold w/o a reckless dbl and went down after dbl as well as contracts that were made just because of the dbl. In this hand, had declarer had 9 trumps he could have talked himself into taking wrong finesse. Or after J lead overtaken and continuation he could have talked himself into ruffing with K and try to finesse you (lets say dummy had 4 clubs ) Even on this hand it was not clear that dbl suggested not to take the finesse. However declarer should not take finesse because of the reasons Andy (Gnasher) wrote, more than because of your dbl.

I said i would not dbl myself, because the outcome of this type of doubles are way too random for me.
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#46 User is offline   jogs 

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Posted 2014-March-05, 10:40

View PostMrAce, on 2014-March-05, 05:48, said:


I said i would not dbl myself, because the outcome of this type of doubles are way too random for me.


I wouldn't double because it paints a picture of the hand for declarer, increasing his chances of making the hand.

Lead a club. In a contested auction, the only excuse for not leading partner's suit is being right.
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#47 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-March-06, 18:53

One thing I cannot understand, Jinksy, is why you bother posting thee hands if you do not listen to the proferred advice. Most have said an overcall of 1 or 2S is obvious and that the double is plain pure bad judgement.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#48 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2014-March-07, 07:00

I am very interested in advice when it's accompanied by an argument that involves some concept of expectation and either some generalizability of either hand type or reasoning to other hands, since that's how I can actually learn from it. Otherwise what am I supposed to do? Just nod and remember that if that exact hand ever comes up again in the exact sequence I'll have the majority's approval for making a specific call?

I'm much less interested when I either don't get an argument, or it simply repeats points I've explicitly discussed earlier in the thread or, better but still less satisfying, it consists solely of a couple of 'what ifs' without addressing the whole set of plausible outcomes.

Even then, if I can extrapolate some actual practical advice to take from it, I'll try to do so - for eg, as a result of heavy majority view in the 'sandwiched' thread, I'll be overcalling 1N after two bids on pretty much any balanced 16 count with requisite stoppers. In this thread, I’m still struggling to see what to take from it to other hands, but I guess I’ll be less keen to make penalty Xes against suit contracts without harder controls as well as well-placed honours.

(I'm still chewing over Gnasher's comment, so hopefully I'll be able to modify my future decisions based on that)

I would hope people here are reasonable enough to differentiate between me probing their claims and dismissing them out of hand. If you can't do so, why do you bother posting answers?
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#49 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-March-07, 20:42

"In this thread, I’m still struggling to see what to take from it to other hands"

Mr Ace
I would bid 1 ♠ over 1♥
I would bid 2♠ over 2♦

Gnasher
Why don't you want to compete?

Beowulf
As others have said - just bid normally and involve your partner. Partner has shown a decent hand and you have 8 points. There's no reason to curl up and die

Finally Jinksy
And I still don't understand what I'm trying to achieve by bidding here other than to prove that I've heard of fit non-jumps.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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