[Jinksy]

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Three questions:

1) How do you play the D suit for one loser a priori?
2) Does the bidding change your line?
3) Do you agree with 2N by E, or is it too wet? (alternatives are pretty standard - X for TO and 3N)

[Cyberyeti]

If they lead a doubleton spade, I may not care.

Spade to 10/Q/ruff
A♣ and if all follow
J♣ to Q
K♠/A/ruff
small heart towards dummy, if N ducks my second heart goes away, if he flies the A and returns a heart, I win the K
6♣ to 8, pitch 2 diamonds on major winners, run Q♦ and I don't care what happens to it, I'm only losing 1 at most

1) I think a priori you run the Q then run the 9
2) It looks like N has 6 hearts and S has 8 spades, so S has 8 spades and 2 hearts, obviously if he follows to 2 clubs you cash A♦
3) 2N/3N both plausible

[lamford]

Cyberyeti, on 2014-October-23, 03:45, said:

If they lead a doubleton spade, I may not care.

Spade to 10/Q/ruff
A♣ and if all follow
J♣ to Q
K♠/A/ruff
small heart towards dummy, if N ducks my second heart goes away, if he flies the A and returns a heart, I win the K
6♣ to 8, pitch 2 diamonds on major winners, run Q♦ and I don't care what happens to it, I'm only losing 1 at most

1) I think a priori you run the Q then run the 9
2) It looks like N has 6 hearts and S has 8 spades, so S has 8 spades and 2 hearts, obviously if he follows to 2 clubs you cash A♦
3) 2N/3N both plausible

If they lead a trump then you do not have enough entries to establish and enjoy your major suit winners safely. And you may go down if North has Qx in spades. I think you play the eight of clubs on an initial trump lead, hoping to get back into your line.

[Jinksy]

Cyberyeti, on 2014-October-23, 03:45, said:

6♣ to 8, pitch 2 diamonds on major winners, run Q♦ and I don't care what happens to it, I'm only losing 1 at most

Why? It doesn't seem like you've achieved anything - you still have three diamonds to play and the ability to ruff the fourth, and you still lose if N has the K♦ and you misguess the J.

Quote

1) I think a priori you run the Q then run the 9

This works iff S has either honour, right? Small to the 9 then running the Q looks better to me - you win if N has both honours or neither or the J only or stiff K.

Quote

2) It looks like N has 6 hearts and S has 8 spades, so S has 8 spades and 2 hearts, obviously if he follows to 2 clubs you cash A♦

Y, makes sense. You still lose if S started with KJx, but that doesn't seem very likely now...

Quote

3) 2N/3N both plausible

Which is plausibler?

[Jinksy]

lamford, on 2014-October-23, 04:01, said:

If they lead a trump then you do not have enough entries to establish and enjoy your major suit winners safely. And you may go down if North has Qx in spades. I think you play the eight of clubs on an initial trump lead, hoping to get back into your line.

He specified if they lead a ♠.

[Cyberyeti]

Jinksy, on 2014-October-23, 04:12, said:

Why? It doesn't seem like you've achieved anything - you still have three diamonds to play and the ability to ruff the fourth, and you still lose if N has the K♦ and you misguess the J.

Because N if he wins the K has to play another diamond resolving the position for you or giving you a ruff and discard.

The end position is something like

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It doesn't matter where the diamond cards are, you're only ever losing one if you run the Q, there is no guess.

And Lamford, yes I specified on a spade lead that looks like a doubleton, if N has Qx/Ax, he will have led the honour if he leads a spade so there is little risk.

[mgoetze]

Jinksy, on 2014-October-23, 04:12, said:

Small to the 9 then running the Q looks better to me

How is small to the 9, run Q better than small to the Q, run 9?

[Jinksy]

Cyberyeti, on 2014-October-23, 04:43, said:

Because N if he wins the K has to play another diamond resolving the position for you or giving you a ruff and discard.

*head hit keyboard*

Right...

[Jinksy]

mgoetze, on 2014-October-23, 05:13, said:

How is small to the 9, run Q better than small to the Q, run 9?

I'm not sure it is. If I were confident what the best play was I wouldn't have asked

I can't see anything to choose between them, though. Both seem to lose to split honours with N having at least a doubleton if the wrong honour is in the wrong place and work otherwise.

[Cyberyeti]

Jinksy, on 2014-October-23, 05:33, said:

*head hit keyboard*

Right...

In fact small to the 10 may be better still, it has the same effect most of the time, but S is more likely to have stiff K than N is to have stiff J and that makes you the overtrick.

[johnu]

Jinksy, on 2014-October-23, 03:24, said:

1) How do you play the D suit for one loser a priori?

After they lead a diamond, I play low from dummy, win as cheaply as possibly, draw trumps, and ruff a diamond if necessary.

[Cthulhu D]

Suitplay suggests that the answer to 1 is small to the 9 unless they come up with the J (cover) or the King (duck)

If you assume that N has 6 hearts and south has 7 spades, the best line doesn't change.

[Cyberyeti]

Cthulhu D, on 2014-October-23, 18:05, said:

Suitplay suggests that the answer to 1 is small to the 9 unless they come up with the J (cover) or the King (duck)

If you assume that N has 6 hearts and south has 7 spades, the best line doesn't change.

I'd assume S had 8 spades, N might well bid 5♠ with 3.

[Cthulhu D]

Cyberyeti, on 2014-October-24, 03:34, said:

I'd assume S had 8 spades, N might well bid 5♠ with 3.

If S has 8 spades and 6 Hearts suitplay wants to lead small from AT432. If South only has 7 spades, it wants to lead small from AT432, but leading the 5 and covering with the T is almost, but not quite, as good.

As that comparison is interesting, let's call small from AT432 A and the 5 from QT5 as B

A wins when the suit breaks Kxxx - J, Jxxx - K, xxx - KJ, xx - KJx, x- - KJxxx and V - KJxxx (in the sense that it goes off one less on the Hawaiian break).

B wins against K - Jxxx, Jxx - Kxx, J - Kxxx. All other breaks are the same trick expectation.

Here is the table of odds and trick expectation produced: http://i.imgur.com/weaRV3H.png

With the vacant spaces set: http://i.imgur.com/OsAmaNi.png

Side note, I wish I could be as good as suitplay when deciding the best line in a suit!

edit: If you only have two entries to dummy, it wants to start with the 5 up to the 10.