[silvr bull]

IMPS in the BBO main bridge club against random opponents. I was on lead against 6NT, but my guess did not work out well. What is your choice?

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[MrAce]

I definitely would lead anything but a club at the table. So I lead club at forums when it is posted in interesting hands.

[PhilKing]

I lead a spart.

[billw55]

Spade for me. Through dummy's second suit, and least likely to give something away. I really want to be as passive as possible here.

[NickRW]

♠

[Jinksy]

Hm, I voted for a club, and was surprised by the popularity of spades more than the unpopularity of clubs. Is it just the J that's steering people from a ♣ lead, or is there something more to it?

It seems to me like any lead has a decent chance of chucking a key trick at the opps, and a spade also has the chance of guiding them towards picking up this suit rather than playing on another one that's not breaking so well. Meanwhile, if my top club was the T, I'd consider this a WTP, and with 5 cards in the suit, it feels relatively unlikely to give them a fourth trick in it.

[gszes]

The Minority report returns and tries to make a case for a

Low heart

This rather unpopular choice is based on the probably unscientific principle that the odds are at worst 7-3 against lho holding the heart T. If p has no heart honor then the suit easily comes home anyway. If we survive the opening lead our heart lead might do much to alleviate some of the pain partner might otherwise feel since they hold at least 3 hearts (hopefully to an honor) and a (hopefully) dia stop and maybe a spade stop since we transfer the heart threat to our hand (that has pretty much nothing else useful to do). There is also the chance (not large) that lho has a singleton heart honor that p can cover and we hit the jackpot immediately. There is also the small chance p has a heart sequence and the heart lead is a killer from the get go. It is difficult for any other lead to lay claim to the many potential advantages of a heart lead with such minimal risk. Oh, did I mention that a low heart lead might discourage declarer from playing hearts when the suit divides favorably for them?

[billw55]

Jinksy, on 2015-February-24, 12:23, said:

Hm, I voted for a club, and was surprised by the popularity of spades more than the unpopularity of clubs. Is it just the J that's steering people from a ♣ lead, or is there something more to it?

It seems to me like any lead has a decent chance of chucking a key trick at the opps, and a spade also has the chance of guiding them towards picking up this suit rather than playing on another one that's not breaking so well. Meanwhile, if my top club was the T, I'd consider this a WTP, and with 5 cards in the suit, it feels relatively unlikely to give them a fourth trick in it.

Leads from jacks just seem to frequently fail. On this strong auction, ops will hold ♣AKQT between them fairly often. Particularly when opener jumps to 3NT with the 4th suit unbid, I expect a solid holding there. So I will give away a trick frequently, but almost never establish one. Really I am just trying to be as passive as possible and hope declarer runs out steam. Yeah, a spade could give away a trick too, but this seems less likely. It's not a huge difference but is enough to convince me.

[Cyberyeti]

billw55, on 2015-February-24, 15:54, said:

Leads from jacks just seem to frequently fail. On this strong auction, ops will hold ♣AKQT between them fairly often. Particularly when opener jumps to 3NT with the 4th suit unbid, I expect a solid holding there. So I will give away a trick frequently, but almost never establish one. Really I am just trying to be as passive as possible and hope declarer runs out steam. Yeah, a spade could give away a trick too, but this seems less likely. It's not a huge difference but is enough to convince me.

So you don't think AKx/Qx(x) or similar is likely in the club suit where you can't give anything away ?

[daffydoc]

every lead is fraught with danger - heart just seems less likely to blow a trick as dummy will be short and highly unlikely declarer holds AKQT in hearts - strongly suspect that if we are beating this hand it will be on a heart lead. daffydoc

[PhilKing]

Can anyone do a sim? I still think this must be pretty close betwen the majors with the minor suits as also-rans.

[billw55]

Cyberyeti, on 2015-February-24, 16:12, said:

So you don't think AKx/Qx(x) or similar is likely in the club suit where you can't give anything away ?

Sure, it could happen. Nothing is guaranteed. Game of percentages, I think spades is safer more often, but I still expect to be wrong 30-40% of the time.

[Free]

I would lead a ♠ and think it's quite a normal lead

[daffydoc]

would be nice to see the hand and what the winning lead was. ty daffydoc

[daffydoc]

BTW I do think a spade is very likely to give up a trick - would lead a club before a spade - but stand with my heart lead. daffy

[masonbarge]

daffydoc, on 2015-February-25, 15:03, said:

BTW I do think a spade is very likely to give up a trick - would lead a club before a spade - but stand with my heart lead. daffy

Heart isn't bad, I'm with DD on this. My theory is that it isn't likely to give up a trick unless dummy has 3 hearts to an honor, which seems unlikely. Only harm I can think of is like partner with 10xxx, which would bite and is possible. But any lead could give up the 12th trick here.

[rmnka447]

A ♠ for me also. Responder has denied a ♠ fit by bidding 3 NT. If they are 4-3-3-3, c'est la vie.

One thing's certain, I'm not leading low from 1074.

[Siegmund]

I want to be passive too, but decided a diamond looked safer than a spade. Not at all sure I am right.

The problem with a sim is that it's very difficult to describe the range of strengths and distributions on which opener might make that raise to 6NT. It includes a bunch of flat 19s, shapely 17s, and the occasional 4-6 or 4-7 hand where the diamonds might peel.

[silvr bull]

daffydoc, on 2015-February-25, 15:01, said:

would be nice to see the hand and what the winning lead was. ty daffydoc

Patience! I wanted to give time for comments.

billw55, on 2015-February-24, 07:19, said:

Spade for me. Through dummy's second suit, and least likely to give something away. I really want to be as passive as possible here.

My thought process exactly, and I did lead the ♠7, but the ♣ leaders did much better.

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[Free]

Not sure what is interesting about this hand, because this isn't what you would call a normal auction. East didn't look for a ♥ fit or ♣ stoppers... Finding the correct lead after an auction from coocooland isn't interesting at all imo.