Posted 2015-April-16, 18:42
Well, the way I play, partner needs a pretty awful hand to bid 4♠. Specifically, it would be pretty surprising if he had a singleton club. On the other hand, he is pretty unlikely to have 3 of them. With a combined 18+ red cards, the opps are going to be forced into the bidding eventually, no? So let's say parter has 2 clubs, and we'll say it's not Qx as that would be too easy. Furthermore let's say the opponents are mean and lead a diamond. We need to draw trumps and ruff a club and then still have a dummy entry. If trumps are 2-2, no problem, but if they are 3-1, we need the opp with the 3rd trump to also have 3 clubs. And of course we need clubs to be 3-2 in the first place, which I'll rate above 68% (again, neither opponent bid) but certainly below 100%.
TBH it seems like what I think about my opponents is going to decide my call here.
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
-- Bertrand Russell