[Wackojack]

---

East leads J♦. Plan the play.

FWIIW this is a club duplicate and opps were one of the strongest in the field.

[MrAce]

I'd go all in at MP

♦K

♠A and ruff a spade.

♥A to hand and ruff another ♠

♦A to hand, and try to clear trumps.

If all breaks I make 13 tricks, 1♠+2ruffs+5♥+5♦.

[PhantomSac]

MrAce, on 2017-February-04, 12:33, said:

I'd go all in at MP

♦K

♠A and ruff a spade.

♥A to hand and ruff another ♠

♦A to hand, and try to clear trumps.

If all breaks I make 13 tricks, 1♠+2ruffs+5♥+5♦.

Hemant Lall rule of MP: Always try to make the max amount of tricks. Haha, doubt that is wise advice but always stuck with me on hands like this because who knows what to do. +1 to Timo's line.

Edit: Also if something weird happens on the first diamond like they play the 9 or something maybe we can reconsider.

[Wackojack]

---

At least then if I were playing in an international field I would be in good company. My plan was the same. Unfortunately in this field I got a round zero. All others declarers played low from dummy.

[PhantomSac]

Wackojack, on 2017-February-04, 13:11, said:

---

At least then if I were playing in an international field I would be in good company. My plan was the same. Unfortunately in this field I got a round zero. All others declarers played low from dummy.

Your opp shifted to a trump at trick 2 I guess? It is definitely possible that other tables played the king but the opps didn't find the trump shift IMO (bad players will usually try to cross to get more ruffs).

[Wackojack]

PhantomSac, on 2017-February-04, 13:24, said:

Your opp shifted to a trump at trick 2 I guess? It is definitely possible that other tables played the king but the opps didn't find the trump shift IMO (bad players will usually try to cross to get more ruffs).

I have not got my double dummy solver working on my new computer. But it looks to me that I am 1 off if West just returns a club for a 2nd diamond ruff. That is 3 tricks and I have eventually to lose another diamond. If West returns a trump I think I can see it being an unavoidable 2 off. Am I missing something?

At the table West did return a club and not a trump. I was so distressed that I misguessed (misplayed) after that and went 2 off anyway.

[MrAce]

Wackojack, on 2017-February-05, 08:31, said:

I have not got my double dummy solver working on my new computer. But it looks to me that I am 1 off if West just returns a club for a 2nd diamond ruff. That is 3 tricks and I have eventually to lose another diamond. If West returns a trump I think I can see it being an unavoidable 2 off. Am I missing something?

At the table West did return a club and not a trump. I was so distressed that I misguessed (misplayed) after that and went 2 off anyway.

No, if W plays a ♣ and E takes with A, to play another ♦, W will be ruffing to a small ♦. You always make, unless you convince yourself that trumps are 4-1.
W ruffed twice, you need him to have no more than 3 trumps. Assume he played spade, win with A, cash his last trump, then cash ♦A, ruff a spade, cash ♦Q discard a spade,ruff diamond and ruff last spade and ruff club high and claim.

By the way, if you click on GIB in the diagram you created here it will show you double dummy analysis of hand. It also gives you "play" option and you can use GIB "dd" analysis while playing in your own diagram here.

[gszes]

IMHO, at MP, before embarking on a "take all feasible tricks" LOP try to calculate the odds of success. If they come in at less than 50% there is a good chance it is not such a great idea. Going for 13 tricks here need 32 dia and 32 trumps so it clocks in at roughly 46%. Seems like a bad idea at MP. How about trying for 11/12 tricks? Win dia A and exit with a club. This play virtually assures your contract and still leaves you with many ways to score at least 11 tricks (including ducking the second round of dia maybe) depending on how the defense goes. Seems like a much more sensible way to go for overtricks. I know the hand is already revealed but the concept makes sense anyway and surely the dia J lead increases the odds significantly that dia do not break 32 lowering that 46% quite a bit.

[Wackojack]

MrAce, on 2017-February-05, 10:26, said:

No, if W plays a ♣ and E takes with A, to play another ♦, W will be ruffing to a small ♦. You always make, unless you convince yourself that trumps are 4-1.
W ruffed twice, you need him to have no more than 3 trumps. Assume he played spade, win with A, cash his last trump, then cash ♦A, ruff a spade, cash ♦Q discard a spade,ruff diamond and ruff last spade and ruff club high and claim.

By the way, if you click on GIB in the diagram you created here it will show you double dummy analysis of hand. It also gives you "play" option and you can use GIB "dd" analysis while playing in your own diagram here.

Yes thanks for the explanation on how to make 10 tricks if West does not return a trump. It does not look to difficult. Also thanks for informing me about the "play" option for DD solutions. Strange that I have not seen this before.