gwnn, on 2017-October-27, 03:27, said:
That's a pretty obvious 4H bid (over 1C-1H; 3H) to me. You have a singleton and 5 trumps. There's nothing contradictory about accepting an invitation on a minimum response. This is a minimum 3514 (which should accept), not a minimum 3433 (which should not accept).
to clarify, though, I think 4H is by no means awful, it is my second choice.
My first choice is 2NT and my second choice is still 2NT.
I will mention some simple facts to consider for the heart raisers:
With regards to game bidding hearts must play 2 tricks better before showing a significant IMPs profit compared to game at notrumps.
Simulation has shown that even if partner has a random 5
♥332, 3NT is more likely to make than game in hearts opposite a random 4
♥333.
Apart from the distribution the honor structure of this 4333 hand looks to me much more suitable for notrumps, that is a preponderance of lower honors in all suits.
I ran a simulation (1000 deals), giving partner 4-5 hearts, no more than 4 spades and at least 5 HCP with no upper limit.
Result:
3NT made double dummy on 866 (87%) deals
Average number of tricks in notrumps was 10.2
4
♥ made on 737 (74%) deals
Average number of tricks in hearts was 10.4
Comparative Analysis:
When 4
♥ made, 3NT will make in 96% of these deals
When 4
♥ fails, 3NT will still make in 61% of these deals
When 3NT makes, 4
♥ will only make in 82% of these deals
When 3NT fails, 4
♥ will make only in 23% of these deals
Now remember you will sometimes reach 4
♥ on those deals where 3NT fails even after you rebid 2NT, because North will often be unbalanced in those scenarios.
I made no assumptions about North distribution except the ones stated above.
Of course agreements after a jump rebid into 2NT helps.
I personally like transfers. If partner transfers into his bid major he guarantees at least five, but is never 5332 unless he is very weak and intends to pass next.
The opposite is not true:
It is quite tough to reach 3NT after you bid 4
♥ straight away.
Even after a jump raise few partnerships can stop in 3NT.
On top it is well known that this double dummy analysis understates the advantage of 3NT over 4
♥, mainly because single dummy the defense does not always find the best lead against 3NT.
Rainer Herrmann