[mikeh]

 PhilG007, on 2018-October-12, 14:32, said:

I was basing my reply on "Murphy's Law" If anything can go wrong,it will. I was visulalising the possibility of the trumps splitting badly
such as a 4-1 split over declarer. if you try to draw trumps it means you are having to use up two of your trumps to pull one of the opponent
that holds the length. That's why its more feasible to try to make your trumps individually..

Why anyone, absent an informative auction, would plan to play on the basis that RHO held KJ9x (or equivalent) in trump will forever remain a mystery.....by which I mean that no explanation you give me will make sense, because the notion is silly.

Now, give me a hand (not one you made up but one in which the context of 'how do I play this suit' actually arose, and give me an auction from which I might reasonably infer a bad break, and it 'may' be that an elopement would make sense. I've certainly played quite a few hands on elopement principles, but there are characteristics common to such hands, and they do not include, as relevant factors, asking how best to play AQxxxx opposite xx for one (or 2) losers

If Murphy's Law were a bridge law, as opposed to a popular but superstition-based saying, then the game would be impossible to play....underbid and every card sits right, bid properly and every card sits poorly. That's not how it works and not how to play the game.

[smerriman]

 mikeh, on 2018-October-12, 15:11, said:

You are mistaken and I will take the time to spell it out for you:

If LHO has J1092, plays the 2 on the 1st trick, and the Queen loses to the stiff King, you will lose 3 tricks in the suit: one to the King and two more to the J109 sitting in front of the A7xx

I'm afraid you're mistaken I think you missed my post above - as I said, if West plays the 2 you duck; in all other cases you play the Queen, and then return and repeat leading towards the Ace. You only lose two tricks to the singleton K offside. If West plays a middle card, playing the Ace or ducking costs an extra trick to the 5-0 split without ever gaining.

In essence, you are using the first round 'duck' to take a triple finesse against West's JT9. If you lose to the King, you get to repeat it, which gains the trick back you apparently lost to the singleton King, but also an extra one with the 5-0 split. It's quite a cool line (and the unique optimal one).

[johnu]

 smerriman, on 2018-October-12, 15:36, said:

In essence, you are using the first round 'duck' to take a triple finesse against West's JT9. If you lose to the King, you get to repeat it, which gains the trick back you apparently lost to the singleton King, but also an extra one with the 5-0 split. It's quite a cool line (and the unique optimal one).

If you lose to singleton king, there is no additional finesse as LHO has J109 left. You just have to lose a 2nd trick.

[smerriman]

 johnu, on 2018-October-12, 18:52, said:

If you lose to singleton king, there is no additional finesse as LHO has J109 left. You just have to lose a 2nd trick.

If LHO has JT9 left, that means he played the 2 on the first trick, and you played the 4. You still have AQ, and lose one more trick.
If LHO played the 9, you covered with the queen and he only has JT2 left. Now you finesse again, and lose one more trick.

[johnu]

 smerriman, on 2018-October-12, 18:57, said:

If LHO has JT9 left, that means he played the 2 on the first trick, and you played the 4. You still have AQ, and lose one more trick.
If LHO played the 9, you covered with the queen and he only has JT2 left. Now you finesse again, and lose one more trick.

Sorry, I misread what you wrote.