thepossum, on 2020-September-09, 01:12, said:
My error (that kind of wasnt an error) was playing hearts first, crossing to the King of spades, then stupidly discarding a small diamond on the Queen
Your real error was not making a plan for the tricks at trick one, before playing from dummy, or at least at the end of trick one since there's no real decision to be made on this hand at trick 1 other than to win the A or K. If you make a plan, which is what one should always do, you would never have pitched a diamond. Discarding a diamond early in the play is just about the most horrendously bad play available, it's giving up an 87% primary chance for maybe 58% chances in the black suits. Crossing to the K of spades is kind of silly, but it wasn't truly fatal either. An early spade king play only removes option to finesse west for the Q of spades which is an unlikely line, but it's not something a good player is going to do since you would do other stuff first. But SK didn't kill you unless you played SA first, or squandered your CK entry for the last chance to hook the spades after testing diamonds.
You have to count your 100% sure tricks, then start thinking about what the most probable ways to get the extra one(s) you need, this should be done on every single hand you declare. Have a plan for how to make all your tricks.
Here you have 12 obvious top cashers, 2 spade 2 club 4 hearts, 4 diamonds, as long as you make the obvious unblock in hearts and maintain transport. So you start to think about how to make the 13th. 13th can be made by dropping black Qs or the DT, or hooks against these, or squeezes, and your job is to calculate which is the best chance, and if it is possible to combine multiple possibilities for an even greater chance. Individually in a single suit, a hook is 50% (unless subsequent play reveals an opponent to have an excess of cards in a different suit, which will tilt the odds). Dropping stuff, it depends on how many cards you have total in the suit and how many top honors. The most obvious easy way to drop stuff on this hand is to drop the DT, which will come in if DT is stiff, they split 3-3, or 4-2, or if west shows out on the first diamond which gives you a marked finesse (more than 87%). So after unblocking the hearts, clearly you want to just play DK and a 2nd diamond (NOT playing 4th heart yet, you don't know what you want to pitch on it yet! If diamonds split you definitely don't want to pitch a diamond, you will pitch a spade later; if diamonds don't split you will eventually pitch a diamond, but in some cases only late in the game retaining the 5th diamond as a threat card), if they both follow the hand is already done.
If East shows up with 5 diamonds, then you have to choose between hooking west for a black Q, or combining the chances with a drop, or a squeeze. If East has the diamonds West is the favorite to hold either black Q. But this hand also gives you extra chances, because you can set up a double squeeze using spades as a threat against both opponents. If you cash all the diamonds (pitching clubs from dummy), you can now play two top clubs, then the final heart. East has to hold the good diamond, so you pitch a diamond, East can't hold on to more than 2 spades. West, if holding CQ still, also can't hold on to more than 2 spades. So playing the spades from the top will now win. This line wins if West has the CQ, East has the CQ stiff or doubleton, or if East has the SQ. It will fail if West guards spades only.
If West has the diamond length, then the double squeeze with spades as the dual threat will no longer work. Then I would probably try to drop CQ and fall back on finessing East for SQ (East being more likely to hold any particular non diamond card, since West's 5 diamonds are taking up more of his card slots). (In all cases you are cashing the top diamonds and pitching clubs, preserving options and giving opponent chance to make a bad discard).
Maybe someone out there can figure out something better.
When you get better, you start planning what to do if diamonds are 5-1 at trick one, before doing anything, to be sure that cashing 2 diamonds first is indeed what you actually want to do first after unblocking the hearts (on other hands it might be better to do other suits first and maybe squeeze someone out of potential long diamonds).
Now, beginners (and most intermediates also) will probably not be able to visualize the double squeeze position when East is holding the diamonds to give some extra chances (vs trying something like simply hooking West for the CQ when East shows up with diamond length). That's perfectly fine at that level of play. But they should at least be able to get the concept of making a plan and testing the diamonds early, and not pitching a potential (extremely likely!) winner on a heart winner.
Can you give some tips for me and any others who don't play that many 7NT hands how you would plan the play please"
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A useful tip "While planning the play, run your solid suit"
Because unless they are on skype or are self-kibitzing, defenders don't know your hand.
Here, your solid suit is ♥ and you can capitalise on the fact that you concealed your diamond suit, during the auction. You have 12 top tricks. Hence a practical line is ...
♥AKJ, ♦K, ♥Q chucking ♣2. ♦AQJ. If ♦ don't break, then ♣A, ♠K,