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Opening lead problem

#1 User is offline   flytoox 

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Posted 2005-June-09, 16:23

Vul.: Both
Dealer: West,

You hold:
S: JXX
H: J8642
D: KQX
C: KX

auction goes as follows:

W N E S
P P 1C P
1D P 1S P
2C P 3S P
6C ALL PASS

What do you lead?
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#2 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2005-June-09, 16:34

king of diamonds
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#3 User is online   mike777 

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Posted 2005-June-09, 16:41

Jlall, on Jun 9 2005, 05:34 PM, said:

king of diamonds

ditto
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#4 User is offline   Double ! 

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Posted 2005-June-09, 17:37

tritto..........................?
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#5 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2005-June-09, 19:08

lol...just learned this hand...from womens trials...funny
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#6 User is offline   luis 

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Posted 2005-June-09, 19:51

Heart but just a guess, if declarer is 7-5 or something with a diamond void he may be discarding his heart on the dA.
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#7 User is offline   HeartA 

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Posted 2005-June-09, 22:55

Double !, on Jun 9 2005, 06:37 PM, said:

tritto..........................?

quarto...
Senshu
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#8 User is offline   joker_gib 

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Posted 2005-June-10, 02:50

luis, on Jun 9 2005, 08:51 PM, said:

Heart but just a guess, if declarer is 7-5 or something with a diamond void he may be discarding his heart on the dA.

Possible but I will also go for the K

Alain
Alain
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#9 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2005-June-10, 07:37

HeartA, on Jun 10 2005, 04:55 AM, said:

Double !, on Jun 9 2005, 06:37 PM, said:

tritto..........................?

quarto...

quinto?
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#10 User is offline   flytoox 

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Posted 2005-June-10, 13:00

Scoring: IMP


DK is the obvious lead. But is it the right lead? From the bidding we knwo that the declarer has 11 cards at least in black suits. So he has at most two cards in red suits. Our CK should be a winner, so we need another trick from the red suit and we must hope pd to have one red suit ace.

Which one?

Though we dont know it, but we have a very important reason to lead H. Why? dummy has long diamonds and clubs. His spade and hearts are short. So, the declarer might dispose his heart loser on his spade suit, but he will never be able to discard his diamond loser, if any, on spade.

Put it another way, diamond can wait, but heart cannot.
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#11 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2005-June-10, 13:20

I dont agree with the analyis. For instance, reverse the hearts and diamonds on this hand in declarers hand. He pitches his diamond on the heart king. We are pretty sure lho has hearts controlled as she doesnt know if her pard is 5206 or not and knows we are likely to lead a heart. This means she almost surely has the HK or HA, making a diamond the percentage lead (imo). If lho has a high heart honor, diamond cannot wait.
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#12 User is online   mike777 

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Posted 2005-June-10, 13:35

flytoox, on Jun 10 2005, 02:00 PM, said:

<!-- FULLHAND begin --><table border=1> <tr> <td> <table> <tr> <td>Dealer:</td> <td> West </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vul:</td> <td> Both </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scoring:</td> <td> IMP </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td> <table> <tr> <th> </th> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> 9852 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> AQT7 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> T864 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> 5 </td> </tr> </table> </th> <th> </th> </tr> <tr> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> K </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> K43 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> J9753 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> Q874 </td> </tr> </table> </th> <th> </th> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> AQT73 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> 2 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> A </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> AJT963 </td> </tr> </table> </th> </tr> <tr> <th> </th> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> J64 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> J9865 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> KQ2 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> K2 </td> </tr> </table> </th> <th> </th> </tr> </table> </td> <td>  </td> </tr> </table><!-- FULLHAND end -->

DK is the obvious lead. But is it the right lead? From the bidding we knwo that the declarer has 11 cards at least in black suits. So he has at most two cards in red suits. Our CK should be a winner, so we need another trick from the red suit and we must hope pd to have one red suit ace.

Which one?

Though we dont know it, but we have a very important reason to lead H. Why? dummy has long diamonds and clubs. His spade and hearts are short. So, the declarer might dispose his heart loser on his spade suit, but he will never be able to discard his diamond loser, if any, on spade.

Put it another way, diamond can wait, but heart cannot.

BTW even vul I bid 1H over 1c opening..get in and get out fast. P is a passed hand so....take a small liberty. Amazing how much trouble a simple overcall of minor suit opening may cause. Now p can bid 3H at their next turn.
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