[AL78]

This is a classic example of safety play, noting the play on the first two tricks, spotting the danger of a ruff, and spurning tempting finesses in order to prevent that ruff from killing the contract if both red suit finesses fail. It is easy to spot playing IMPs, but what would be the correct way to play the hand at MPs? The safest line of play maximises the chance of making. Taking the heart finesse guarentees 10 tricks if it works. If it fails and the defence get their ruff, 10 tricks are there if the diamond finesse works. It needs both finesses offside to go down when it could otherwise make, which is about the same odds as taking both finesses when they both work, and if the red kings are split, both lines make 10 tricks. Does it makea difference if you play in a field with a high variance of ability, where there is a non-zero chance of a West player not paying attention to the fact that East switched to a club, or East doesn't switch to a club at trick two?

One reason I ask was I made a poor judgement some time ago in a game contract where I got an apparently favourable lead. I took the safest line to guarentee the contract which avoided taking a couple of potentially dodgy finesses (or so I thought at the time). I ended up with a near bottom because everything worked so the field were making 11, maybe even 12 tricks in one or two cases.

[pilowsky]

AL78, on 2021-November-14, 08:17, said:

This is a classic example of safety play, noting the play on the first two tricks, spotting the danger of a ruff, and spurning tempting finesses in order to prevent that ruff from killing the contract if both red suit finesses fail. It is easy to spot playing IMPs, but what would be the correct way to play the hand at MPs? The safest line of play maximises the chance of making. Taking the heart finesse guarentees 10 tricks if it works. If it fails and the defence get their ruff, 10 tricks are there if the diamond finesse works. It needs both finesses offside to go down when it could otherwise make, which is about the same odds as taking both finesses when they both work, and if the red kings are split, both lines make 10 tricks. Does it makea difference if you play in a field with a high variance of ability, where there is a non-zero chance of a West player not paying attention to the fact that East switched to a club, or East doesn't switch to a club at trick two?

One reason I ask was I made a poor judgement some time ago in a game contract where I got an apparently favourable lead. I took the safest line to guarentee the contract which avoided taking a couple of potentially dodgy finesses (or so I thought at the time). I ended up with a near bottom because everything worked so the field were making 11, maybe even 12 tricks in one or two cases.

This problem is a flaw/feature of tournament Bridge.
Suppose you face the (not uncommon) situation where you can guarantee making a risky contract but will not have the opportunity to make an overtrick.
You will surely get a bad result for two reasons:
1. Someone will take the risk and pat themselves on the back for being "clever" and having "good judgement".
2. At some boards, the opponents will make an error so that overtricks are unavoidable.

The "good judgement" I'm talking about is similar to the "Right Stuff" in Tom Wolfe's book about the test pilots.
The pilot takes a flimsy aluminium tube with a rocket on the back as high into the air as possible. He (always a "he") then attempts to move the tube on a rocket into more and more dangerous configurations.
If he survives, he's brilliant, brave and skilful.
If he fails, he doesn't have the right stuff.

[smerriman]

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If the king of hearts is onside, the trump finesse scores 100% over the safety play.

That alone makes it the right play at MPs, since East's clear singleton club makes it more than 50% that he has the king.

[Edit] Well, that is, unless East holding Kx(xx) would think there is no purpose in leading a singleton club, since West can never get in to give him a ruff anyway unless holding a singleton trump ace, in which case South may not have made a slam try. But then if that's enough to convince you to not take the finesse, then maybe they would lead the club after all as a double-bluff. Heh. I always manage to find a way to complicate things

[Winstonm]

smerriman, on 2021-November-14, 22:09, said:

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If the king of hearts is onside, the trump finesse scores 100% over the safety play.

That alone makes it the right play at MPs, since East's clear singleton club makes it more than 50% that he has the king.

[Edit] Well, that is, unless East holding Kx(xx) would think there is no purpose in leading a singleton club, since West can never get in to give him a ruff anyway unless holding a singleton trump ace, in which case South may not have made a slam try. But then if that's enough to convince you to not take the finesse, then maybe they would lead the club after all as a double-bluff. Heh. I always manage to find a way to complicate things

Maybe east holds Kx in spades and 985 in clubs and switched to the club 5 to entice you to eschew the Trump finesse.