[lamford]

---

West leads the queen of diamonds. East follows with the nine of diamonds, normal count. A tough hand from the Camrose and the number one ranked player in the country went off. What is your line?

[shyams]

I am wondering why two finesses in spades isn't a good enough line.

Win the diamond in hand, run spade 8 (say it loses to East's Jack).
Win the diamond return in dummy. Cross over with low to ♥10 and play a low spade to dummy's 10.

If East has both spade honours, I lose --- down 3 if diamonds break 4-3 (presumably West did not lead from ♦Q from Qx)) or down 1 if they break 5-2 (longer with West).

Otherwise I make the contract

[fuzzyquack]

shyams, on 2024-March-05, 01:12, said:

I am wondering why two finesses in spades isn't a good enough line.

Win the diamond in hand, run spade 8 (say it loses to East's Jack).
Win the diamond return in dummy. Cross over with low to ♥10 and play a low spade to dummy's 10.

If East has both spade honours, I lose --- down 3 if diamonds break 4-3 (presumably West did not lead from ♦Q from Qx)) or down 1 if they break 5-2 (longer with West).

Otherwise I make the contract

I'm also wondering. If spades from the top to rely on club finesse if no honour falls, we gain if E holds QJx or E holds QJxx and the K of clubs. Finally, we may recover a part of 75% if W holds QJxx and the K of clubs and the club spots he pitches would prompt us to play for a squeeze. I don't know if combining these chances with the fall of Hx in spades would exceed 75% for double finesse.

[Tramticket]

fuzzyquack, on 2024-March-05, 02:28, said:

I'm also wondering. If spades from the top to rely on club finesse if no honour falls, we gain if E holds QJx or E holds QJxx and the K of clubs. Finally, we may recover a part of 75% if W holds QJxx and the K of clubs and the club spots he pitches would prompt us to play for a squeeze. I don't know if combining these chances with the fall of Hx in spades would exceed 75% for double finesse.

Play spades from the top:
Probability that either spades are 3-3 (or 4-2/5-1 and an honour falls) = 60%
Probability that club finesse succeeds = 50% x 40% = 20%
Total probably of success playing spadesfrom the top = 80%

Double finesse in spades:
Probability that West has at least one honour = 76%

It seems that playing spades from the top has a 4% advantage.
(Ignores chances of a 6-0 heart break).

[Cyberyeti]

Tramticket, on 2024-March-05, 11:28, said:

Play spades from the top:
Probability that either spades are 3-3 (or 4-2/5-1 and an honour falls) = 60%
Probability that club finesse succeeds = 50% x 40% = 20%
Total probably of success playing spadesfrom the top = 80%

Double finesse in spades:
Probability that West has at least one honour = 76%

It seems that playing spades from the top has a 4% advantage.
(Ignores chances of a 6-0 heart break).

You don't get to take the club finesse if spades are 4-2 and the holder of the 4 cashes 2 of them. If you don't play the 3rd round, you don't make if they're 3-3 with split honours and the club finesse is wrong.

[mikeh]

if one is tackling spades by finessing, don't run the 9. Cash a top spade first then finesse.

finessing right away is how you play for 4 spade tricks, not 3. The gain is marginal but marginal gains can be decisive and catering to them is one of the distinguishing characteristics of expert declarer play. Cashing a top spade caters to stiff Q or J or QJ tight offside...sure, that's low percentage but it costs nothing (in terms of trying to make 6N) to play that way

edit: I shouldn't post after a good dinner accompanied by good wine, lol. we don't have the entries to cash a top spade...we do so, cross in hearts, lead the spade 9 and see it covered...if we win and lead towards our 8, we can't get back to dummy. sorry about the bad post.

[shyams]

Tramticket, on 2024-March-05, 11:28, said:

Total probably of success playing spadesfrom the top = 80%

I used the calculators on RPBridge website ("Card Combination Analyzer"). According to it, the % of success is 69.44%. I think I was careful in my calcs. but please feel free to double check.

Tramticket, on 2024-March-05, 11:28, said:

Double finesse in spades:
Probability that West has at least one honour = 76%

This % exactly matches what RPBridge calculator shows.

[awm]

Suppose we win in dummy, play heart to ten, and let the spade nine ride. Suppose East wins and returns a diamond. We win in hand, play spade to ace, then cash the hearts. We can return to hand with club ace, holding KT of spade in dummy and either club Q or diamond 7 in hand along with a spade. Here we can always take another spade finesse, but there is a decent chance some squeeze is operating too (will have to read the cards).

[shyams]

Another option (mostly inspired by the title used by OP) would be to engineer an endplay.

So, ♦A, ♥x to ♥10, ♠x to dummy's ♠A, then run 5 more hearts.

Last 5 cards:
North: ♠K10x ♥-- ♦x ♣x
South: ♠x ♥-- ♦Kx ♣AQ

Someone can be endplayed if (a) they started with both minors, or (b) they started with both black suits (incl. ♣K). One has to read the cards and guess correctly... not sure if this works out to the >76% odds associated with two spade finesses.

[lamford]

My line might be influenced by seeing all four hands, but I would win the diamond in North, as declarer Mike Bell did, and I now cash two top spades. If an honour drops, I play a third spade and am gin as long as hearts are not 5-1 or worse. In practice, West shows out on the second spade, and I now run the hearts with West having four. West has to keep three diamonds or he is thrown in with king and another diamond. And he has to do so with or without the king of clubs. Against a world-class defender, I play for him to have been strip squeezed if he has two or three hearts, and take the club finesse if he has four.

Against Charlie the Chimp, I play for him to have smoothly bared the king of clubs, but feigned discomfort before baring the jack of clubs ... Although he might be double-bluffing ...mind games with ChCh

[gszes]

mikeh, on 2024-March-05, 19:16, said:

if one is tackling spades by finessing, don't run the 9. Cash a top spade first then finesse.

finessing right away is how you play for 4 spade tricks, not 3. The gain is marginal but marginal gains can be decisive and catering to them is one of the distinguishing characteristics of expert declarer play. Cashing a top spade caters to stiff Q or J or QJ tight offside...sure, that's low percentage but it costs nothing (in terms of trying to make 6N) to play that way

edit: I shouldn't post after a good dinner accompanied by good wine, lol. we don't have the entries to cash a top spade...we do so, cross in hearts, lead the spade 9 and see it covered...if we win and lead towards our 8, we can't get back to dummy. sorry about the bad post.

mikeh, on 2024-March-05, 19:16, said:

if one is tackling spades by finessing, don't run the 9. Cash a top spade first then finesse.

finessing right away is how you play for 4 spade tricks, not 3. The gain is marginal but marginal gains can be decisive and catering to them is one of the distinguishing characteristics of expert declarer play. Cashing a top spade caters to stiff Q or J or QJ tight offside...sure, that's low percentage but it costs nothing (in terms of trying to make 6N) to play that way

edit: I shouldn't post after a good dinner accompanied by good wine, lol. we don't have the entries to cash a top spade...we do so, cross in hearts, lead the spade 9 and see it covered...if we win and lead towards our 8, we can't get back to dummy. sorry about the bad post.

I THINK this is my line but I cannot (in my wee brain) untwist the wording you used.
trick 1 win lead in hand
trick 2 lead spade to A
trick 3 heart to T
trick 4 lead spade intending to take double finesse. One of three things will happen (sigh i hate so many branches).
1. an honor shows up from lho
we cover the honor and lead low from dummy to our 9 with the dia ace as an entry back to dummy. making 6.
2. small from lho we finesse (if it holds we make 6) so assuming it loses.
trick 5 whatever the defense we come back to our hand via the club ace and take another spade finesse. Making 6 or down several tricks (ouch). Losing to RHO QJx or QJxx
3. lho shows out (hehe haha why does the optimist in me think a mere 76+ % chance could possibly work?). There are no reasonable squeezes left so IMHO I would rise with the
Top spade and immediately take the club finesse. Making 6 or down 2. Loses to RHO QJxxx and club K with LHO.