[Jinksy]

---

Teams of 8, no-one vul.

First question: would you prefer to be in or out of this slam?

Second question: would it affect your answer if I said you were in the last set of a 4-set game, that at half time you'd been trailing heavily on course for a 20-0 VP loss?

Third question: on the lead of the 3S, what do you think is the best line to make?

[SteveMoe]

Win lead, small ♦ to A, push ♥10 toward Q (81.3% line for 5 ♥ tricks). Win return, draw trumps, ♠, ♠ ruff looking for ♠Q.
If no 2 pitches on ♠, take ♣ finesse. Otherwise pitch ♣Qx on ♠J10.

I put the probabillty at 81.3%(54% + 1/2(46%)) = 62.6%

...therefore I want to be in it regardless of conditions...

BTW, guessing the singleton J with LHO or the singleton K with RHO is too much for me....

[Codo]

If you win the ace of Diamonds to play hearts, how will you enjoy the spades after they returned a diamond at trick 4? You surely have some chances with trumps 2-2 or with the spade finesse, but I disagree with your calculation.

I would give up on some extra % in the trump suit to leave the communication perfect, so I would start with a Heart to the ace and a heart back.

[gnasher]

Codo, on 2012-November-16, 01:48, said:

If you win the ace of Diamonds to play hearts, how will you enjoy the spades after they returned a diamond at trick 4?

Also, SteveMoe won't always be able to test spades before trying the club finesse - if hearts are Jx-Kx or J-Kxx, East can play a club through at trick 4.

Edit: And there's the risk of a spade ruff.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2012-November-16, 01:59

[Jinksy]

Further question – what is the best line of play for one loser in this trump suit? I was going over them as systematically as I could while I should have been sleeping last night, and assuming equal likelihood of all 16 H distributions, all lines I thought about (small-A, small-T planning to cash the A, run the Q planning to cash the A) seemed to be basically equivalent, each working on exactly 12 distributions. Cashing the A first also gives a 1/16 chance of picking the suit up for no losers, which might be helpful on this hand, but I’m more interested in the 1-loser line, since it feels pretty implausible a priori that they’re really all the same.

[han]

Jinksy, on 2012-November-16, 04:09, said:

Further question – what is the best line of play for one loser in this trump suit? I was going over them as systematically as I could while I should have been sleeping last night, and assuming equal likelihood of all 16 H distributions, all lines I thought about (small-A, small-T planning to cash the A, run the Q planning to cash the A) seemed to be basically equivalent, each working on exactly 12 distributions. Cashing the A first also gives a 1/16 chance of picking the suit up for no losers, which might be helpful on this hand, but I’m more interested in the 1-loser line, since it feels pretty implausible a priori that they’re really all the same.

Stevemoe gave you the answer.

[Jinksy]

If they really do all pick up 12 combinations then, ignoring communication issues, am I right in thinking that the ones the pick up the more even distributions would be fractionally better, since on empty spaces eg 2-2 splits are marginally more frequent than 6 times in 16 (and conditional on a worse split, 3-1s are marginally more likely than 8 times in 10) on the full hand?

Quote

Stevemoe gave you the answer.

Was after the reasoning, but I think I've satisfied myself of it now.

[han]

Running the 10 picks up 13, not 12.

[PhilKing]

SteveMoe, on 2012-November-15, 20:20, said:

Win lead, small ♦ to A, push ♥10 toward Q (81.3% line for 5 ♥ tricks).

It's not clear how often you make 5 tricks on this line, but it is clear that leading the ten is wrong.

Lead the eight. You do not went tip your hand to LHO. Put him under maximum pressure to go up with the king from Kx. He will duck with Kxx, and you will lose to the stiff jack, but as long as you can get him to panic with Kx (he may worry that you have A98xxx), stiff jack is the only losing scenario.

The fact is, not that may West's are tough enough to duck if you lead the eight, but if you lead the ten, it makes it much easier for them to be a hero.

[Cyberyeti]

Leading the 10 may win the battle but lose the war when RHO wins the K and gives his partner a spade ruff.

I think I play the hearts by playing ace and another, I'm not giving up the chance of playing them for no loser, and want to kill the possible ruff. Also I preserve my diamond entry to dummy so can always play 2 spades and ruff one before deciding whether to take the club finesse.

[Codo]

BTW: I would like to be in slam .it is better then 50 %. If you play the hearts for one loseer (75 %) you have several chances in spades combined with the club finesse if anything else fails...

[Jinksy]

Quote

Lead the eight. You do not went tip your hand to LHO. Put him under maximum pressure to go up with the king from Kx. He will duck with Kxx, and you will lose to the stiff jack, but as long as you can get him to panic with Kx (he may worry that you have A98xxx), stiff jack is the only losing scenario.

But you’re probably planning to play small from dummy anyway and then cash the AH if you lose to the J, so when is this gaining? I think Han is right about chances – you lose to stiff J, or either KJx with E playing this way.

On the actual hand, small to AH seems to have the added advantage of bringing trumps in for no losers when E has stiff K, which gives you a lot more wiggle-room in the black suits as well as cutting down possible ruffs.

[Fluffy]

if you are talking about hearts in isolation Jinksy, then winnning the ace on second round of the suit is the worst thing you can do. And leading the 8 from hand is the best

[Jinksy]

Fluffy, on 2012-November-16, 08:15, said:

if you are talking about hearts in isolation Jinksy, then winnning the ace on second round of the suit is the worst thing you can do. And leading the 8 from hand is the best

Why? By the time you've seen 1 card in one hand and two in another, surely there's only two remaining possible layouts, one of which (if the question is relevant) you'll pick up by playing for a drop, one of which you'll pick up by finessing.

In the case of leading running an intermediate through the Q, if you lose to the J on the first round (and don't see the K) it's trivial that you have to play the A on the second.

[PhilKing]

Jinksy, on 2012-November-16, 07:14, said:

But you’re probably planning to play small from dummy anyway and then cash the AH if you lose to the J, so when is this gaining? I think Han is right about chances – you lose to stiff J, or either KJx with E playing this way.

On the actual hand, small to AH seems to have the added advantage of bringing trumps in for no losers when E has stiff K, which gives you a lot more wiggle-room in the black suits as well as cutting down possible ruffs.

Nobody is intending to play for the drop after losing to the jack.

Starting with the ace of hearts is right on the hand as cyberyeti said. But in terms of playing trumps, the clear play is to run the eight then run the queen. You lose only to stiff jack in East and to Wests good enough to duck with Kx.

How many of those do you play against? It's only trivial to play for the drop against Benito Rodstroth.

[ceeb]

I presume the spade lead is in the face of dummy having shown the suit. Even though there are several possible reasons for the lead -- looking for a ruff, bluffing a ruff, looking to give partner a ruff - nonetheless I think one can draw inferences from the lead that probably override the tiny nominal percentage differences among various trump plays. I figure the lead as one of

1) singleton ♠, probably without ♥K
2) bluffing a ♠ ruff holding ♥KJx(x)
3) long spades hoping to give East a ruff - unlikely with a void ♥

in decreasing order of likelihood. If #1 best is ♥Q first to avoid confronting a ♣ switch but that play implies a strong belief in #1 being the case. ♥'s from the top is a compromise mostly also catering to #2, if you reckon LHO has the bluffing mentality, and on my assumptions is 50% to be ok in the ♥ suit even in case of #3. So I like it. Not clear how to react if RHO turns up with ♥Kx(x) and puts a ♣ through.

As for wanting to be in it: Trusting everyone's analysis that it is a moderately odds-on slam, judging that it's reasonably biddable by our counterparts, and taking into account that we're stuck a bunch, better to stay out of this one.

[dake50]

How much have you told opponents? eg.
"Don't attack in clubs from C:Kxx, South has a tenace?"
"Dummy will have a hefty 5+S, so a Spade won't surrender a trick?"
"Trumps are dicey, so don't lead a trump into a free finesse?"

*** Hard to infer what West's lead means without telling us reply-ers
what you know you told the defenders in your auction.
'What was West thinking/fearing?' has no input to our 'play this slam'.
Is that Spade lead revealing? Or an expected choice?

[Jinksy]

The bidding:

1S* 2H**
3H 4C***
4D 4N
5C 5D
6C 6H

* Fantunes style (but without the weak with Hs option), F1 and 14+
** GF
*** 1st or second round cue bypassing Frivolous 3N, ie extra strength.
Rest standard

[gszes]

Cyberyeti, on 2012-November-16, 06:26, said:

Leading the 10 may win the battle but lose the war when RHO wins the K and gives his partner a spade ruff.

I think I play the hearts by playing ace and another, I'm not giving up the chance of playing them for no loser, and want to kill the possible ruff. Also I preserve my diamond entry to dummy so can always play 2 spades and ruff one before deciding whether to take the club finesse.

Agree with the above leading a spade from Qxxx in this bidding has to look almost completely
pointless at best. The lead practically screams singleton and the lack of bidding by lho seems
to indicate at least 2 hearts. Therefore winning trick 1 and leading a heart to the A should cater
to all reasonable distibutions and may even luck out and pick up the stiff heart K with rho.

Decent slam opps could have practically handed me the contract with a trump or a club lead and
even as it is I think we still have tremendous play.

[WellSpyder]

Cyberyeti, on 2012-November-16, 06:26, said:

I think I play the hearts by playing ace and another..... so can always play 2 spades and ruff one before deciding whether to take the club finesse.

How does that work when East wins with ♥Kx and leads a ♣ at T4?